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The 2016 Election Observer: Epstein Tracked Trump's Polling Surge

On September 14, 2016, Richard Kahn sent Jeffrey Epstein an email with the subject line "trump making a nice move .." The message contained detailed polling data from multiple sources showing Donald Trump gaining ground against Hillary Clinton in key battleground states. This seemingly innocuous political update appears in EFTA00818213.PDF, raising questions about why Epstein's staff continued feeding him granular political intelligence eight years after his first conviction.

The Polling Snapshot

The email forwarded comprehensive polling results showing Trump leading Clinton in several metrics. The LA Times/USC Tracking poll showed Trump ahead by five points nationally, 47 to 42. In Ohio, a critical swing state, Bloomberg polling had Trump up by five points. In Maine's second congressional district, Trump led by ten points.

The data wasn't cherry-picked to show only Trump victories. Kahn included polls showing Clinton maintaining strong leads in Massachusetts (26 points) and nationally in some surveys. The email presented a snapshot of a tightening race, with many polls showing Trump momentum in September 2016, roughly two months before election day.

Obama's approval ratings sat at 48 percent approve, 48 percent disapprove. Generic congressional ballot polling showed Democrats ahead by just two points. And 65 percent of respondents believed the country was on the wrong track.

Who Is Richard Kahn

Richard Kahn appears throughout the Epstein archive as someone who handled various administrative and communication tasks. The email address routing these polling results to "[email protected]," an address associated with Epstein, suggests Kahn served as a conduit for information Epstein wanted to track.

The subject line "trump making a nice move" indicates editorial commentary, not just data forwarding. Kahn wasn't simply passing along polling aggregates. He was interpreting them, highlighting Trump's improving position for Epstein's attention.

The Timing Context

September 2016 represented a crucial period in the presidential race. Trump had secured the Republican nomination and was working to consolidate support among skeptical Republican voters. Clinton maintained advantages in most national polling, but battleground states showed volatility.

By this date, Epstein had been a registered sex offender for eight years. His 2008 plea deal in Florida had resulted in 13 months of work-release incarceration. His social circle had contracted, with many former associates distancing themselves. Yet someone on his staff still deemed presidential polling data worth compiling and sending.

The Trump Connection

Documents in the archive show Epstein and Trump moved in overlapping social circles in the 1990s and early 2000s. Flight logs place Trump on Epstein's plane at least once. Photos show them together at Mar-a-Lago events. Trump later claimed he had a falling out with Epstein and banned him from Mar-a-Lago, though the timeline of that alleged ban remains disputed.

The fact that Kahn highlighted Trump's polling improvements specifically suggests either Epstein had expressed interest in Trump's campaign or Kahn believed such information would interest him. The subject line's almost cheerful tone, "trump making a nice move," implies familiarity with Trump as a subject of ongoing discussion.

Political Intelligence After Conviction

This document raises a broader question about Epstein's information diet during his later years. Why did a convicted sex offender with restricted movement need detailed swing-state polling data? The archive contains numerous examples of Epstein maintaining awareness of political developments, scientific conferences, and social events he could no longer directly participate in.

The email suggests Epstein positioned himself as someone still connected to power and information flows. Even from a diminished position, he tracked political races, maintained correspondence with scientists and academics, and received updates that kept him informed about elite social circles.

The Gmail Address

The destination address "[email protected]" appears across multiple documents in the archive. The casual nature of the address, combined with the "vacation" reference, contrasts with the serious content often sent to it. Financial documents, legal correspondence, and political updates all flowed to this consumer email account.

This suggests Epstein maintained active email access and continued processing information sent by multiple contacts. The archive shows he wasn't isolated or cut off from information networks after his conviction. Staff members like Kahn continued treating him as someone who wanted and needed detailed briefings on current events.

Reading the Tea Leaves

The specific polls Kahn chose to include reveal sophistication about electoral politics. He didn't just send national numbers. He included state-level data from Ohio and Maine, congressional district breakdowns, Senate races, and generic ballot trends. This wasn't casual political interest. Someone compiled a detailed briefing document.

The inclusion of "Direction of Country" polling (22 percent right direction, 65 percent wrong track) provided context for why Trump's outsider message might resonate. Kahn or his source understood that presidential races don't happen in isolation from broader public mood.

Questions Without Answers

The document doesn't explain why Epstein wanted this information. It doesn't reveal whether he had financial interests tied to the election outcome. It doesn't show whether he shared these updates with others in his network. It simply demonstrates that in September 2016, someone thought Jeffrey Epstein needed to know Donald Trump was gaining in the polls.

The archive contains 1.43 million pages of material. Each document offers a small window into how Epstein's world functioned. This email shows that world included political monitoring, staff who provided intelligence briefings, and continued engagement with national events from whatever remove Epstein maintained after his conviction.

Two months after this email, Trump would win the presidency in an upset that defied most polling predictions. Whether Epstein followed those results with the same interest his aide showed in September remains unrecorded in this particular document.

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This archive contains 1.43 million government documents related to the Jeffrey Epstein investigation, including materials referenced in active criminal proceedings.

Contents include evidence of sexual abuse, trafficking, and exploitation of minors.

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