EFTA00379407.pdf

From: Ike Groff Subject: Early Tour 11.21.13 Date: Thu, 21 Nov 2013 10:54:43 +0000 Inline-Images: image001.jpg: image002.png L :Description: Description: Good Morning ... European Markets off 0-40 bps (UK +0.07%, Italy +0.28%) ... NKY +1.92%, SHCOMP -0.04%, HSI -0.51%, KOSPI -1.16%, TWSE -1.28%, ASX -0.36% EUR 1.3434 (-0.03%) JPY 100.88 (-0.84%) EUR/JPY 135.52 (+0.81%) AUD 0.9266 (-0.73%) NZD 0.8211 (-0.74%) US 10yr 2.786% Japan 10yr 0.63`1/0 Germany 10yr 1.76% Portugal 10yr 6.03% Italy 10yr 4.07% Spain 10yr 4.09% Futures: Dow +39. Nasdaq +11, MI +4 DXY $81.13 (+2c) Crude $93.83 (-2c) Gold $1246.70 (-$11.10) Copper +0.17% Silver -0.54% Nat Gas +0.24% Asian markets were mainly lower overnight, following the US as Fed tapering fears resurface. A slightly weaker HSBC China Flash PMI also weighed on sentiment. November PMI might fall to 50.4 from October's final reading of 50.9 on a slowdown in new export orders. That said, this would be the first decline in 4 months and is still above 50. Both the SHCOMP and the HSI sold-off following the release, but rallied in the PM session with the SHCOMP nearly flat on the day. Airlines were strong (led by Air China, +9.7%) on potential airspace reform/yuan appreciation and property names were weak (-0.8%) on reports of higher taxes. Japan bucked the regional trend with the NKY (+1.9%) and TPX (+1%) both closing near the highs. The main drivers were the Yen hitting 2-month lows (JPY currently 100.74) which boosted exporters and telco names were also strong. Softbank (+3.1%) on a broker upgrade and KDDI (+6.3%) after unveiling a plan to expand its shareholder benefits program aimed at boosting retail ownership of the company's stock (target 17% from around 4% currently) both hitting 13yr highs. The BOJ was a non-event, concluding its 2-day policy meeting and leaving policy unchanged ("maintaining" its Y60t-Y70t annual rise in monetary base). In Australia, the ASX200 closed just off the session lows as banks continue to see profit-taking. In Korea, the KOSPI gave up the 2000 level as foreign selling (-$223mn) hit its highest level in 2-weeks. Emerging markets underperform on general de-risking following yesterday's FOMC minutes. DXY is currently +0.07% this morning and the US 10yr yield ticked as high as 2.81% overnight and is currently settling in around the 2.78% level. European off small but at the best levels of the day. European Flash PMI Manufacturing #'s are out as well: Eurozone 51.5 (est 52), Germany 52.5 (est 52.0), France 47.8 (est 49.5). Jobless claims @ 8:30am in the US and Flash PMI @ 8:58am. We will also get earnings from a bunch of retailers reporting today. Robin Hood Investors Conference in NYC today and tomorrow and the full agenda can be found here. SPA's +4 handle = 1783.50 last. ***Jobless Claims / PPI @ 8:30am, Markit US PMI @ 8:58am, Philly Fed @ 10am". anANF, DLTR, GME, PDCO, TGT, SHLD, BKE #'s pre-open /ADSK, GPS, INTU, ROST, ARUN, BERY, P #'s post close*** • Green Mountain profit jumped as sales rose from strong demand but outlook weak (trading -2.5%) • L Brands O3 eps topped prior forecast & net +25% on good sales but gm's fell (trading -4%) EFTA00379407 • Jack in the Box net income almost 2X on lower costs but revs fell (good yr eps view) (trading +4%) • William Sonoma O3 beat ests as sss increased across board & solid year outlook (trading +4.5%) • Post Holdings net sales topped estimates but eps missed & swung to O4 loss on weaker margins • Probe of how US Medicare moved reached investors on April 1 (Height Securities report) hits a wall (WSJ) • Swiss Watch data: October exports +1.1% vs +8.5% in September but comps were 15% tougher • SAB Miller H1 revs ahead, EBITDA good, margins shade better, trading conditions unchanged (trading +0.80%) • Royal Unibrew Q3 revs shade better, EBITDA beats, EBIT exceeds, raising guidance (trading +4.6%) • Daily Mail FY revs inline, op income flat, EPS better, positive outlook, upbeat comments (trading +2.8%) • National Grid H1 slight beat, EPS ahead, net debt lower, overall performance consistent (trading -0.10%) • Alliance Oil Q3 revs better, EBITDA below, EPS miss, mixed guidance (trading -0.25%) • ThyssenKrupp: Handelsblatt reports company will try and sell CSA again in 2-3 years (trading -2.5%) • Investec H1 adj op profit below, net asset value miss, EPS light, -ve ZAR effects (trading -1.0%) • Johnson Matthey H1 strong on sales, Anglo Platinum tie up to expire 12/31 & impact O4 (trading +3.2%) • OPAP O3 sales beat, EBITDA strong, net good, Kino & Stihima better, focus on strategy (trading -0.30%) • Close Brothers Group IMS: solid loan book growth, positive start, confident outlook (trading +2.0%) • Qinetiq H1 better in difficult market, considering sale of US unit, reiterates forecasts (trading +7.3%) • Mothercare H1 revs improving, EPS better, international good, consumer remains subdued (trading -2.2%) • Medivir O3 revs strong y/y, EBITDA better, EPS okay, lack of guidance (trading -0.90%) • Paypoint H1 revs beat, EBIT ahead, interim div improves y/y, trading in line (trading +1.9%) • Intermediate Capital H1 adjusted EPS good y/y, NIl worse, interim dividend ok (trading -3.8%) • Singapore Q3 GDP +1.3% q/q vs est -0.3%, +5.8% y/y vs est +5.3%, raises its growth forecast for 2013 • Hong Kong October consumer prices +4.3% from a year earlier versus estimate +4.5% and +4.6% prior Leading European Sectors: Healthcare +0.25%, Banks +0.20%, Utilities +0.20% Lagging European Sectors: Basic Res -0.92%, Tech -0.53%, Retail -0.52% JCI raised buyback & dividend — BV ceo to step down — FFHL earnings light RT to take charge cut jobs — WTV revs missed ests — RE boosts dividend Secondaries (announced/priced): CRNT, CSII, AL, FOR, GCAP (convert), WBMD (convert), SONS, ATTU, TESO IPO's (filed/priced): Navigator Holdings (NVGS) 12M shares priced at $19 (top-end) EFTA00379408 US Key Research: • Barcap initiates EVER/CHKP/IMPV (ow's) and FTNT (ew), CS upgrades AAP ••• DB initiates MCK/FtAD/WAG (buy's) & ABC/CAH/CTRX/CVS/ESRX (hold's), UBS upgrades WAG (buy) ••• DB initiates MDSO/CERN/ATHN/MDAS/MDRX (buy's) & CRL/CVD/PRXL/CPSI/QSI (hold's) DB downgrades O, GS downgrades PM, Imperial initiates RAD/RDWR (op), Jefferies cuts ED ••• Citi upgrades MTL (buy), Raja cuts GBX/QCOM/TRN, BMO upgrades HSH, JPM cuts SJM ••• FBR initiates MWW (op), Longbow initiates NAV (neut), Opco downgrades PXD Europe Key Research: ••• JEFF +ve AC FP, Berenberg reit buy ZONO PL, Panmure +ve IN LN • KepChev upgrade MEC CY, SRN IM, Oddo downgrade ITRK LN, upgrade MEC CY, MF downgrade SZG GY • BofAML downgrade RSL LN, upgrade LGEN LN, Citi downgrade SW FP, ALV GY • Danske upgrade ROCKB DC, DBK upgrade EBS AV, RBI AV, MAQ downgrade SVT LN ••• GS upgrade European Banks, Telecoms, UK Homebuilders, downgrade European Media, Industrials, Chemicals ••• HSBC downgrade ML FP, SIX2 GY, initiate ARM LN (ow), upgrade PC IM, • Nordea upgrade ROCKB DC, Numis downgrade ICP LN, MS upgrade SGC LN • UBS downgrade ANTO LN, initiate MUV2 GY (b), SREN VX (n), Liberum initiate APR LN (s) Reporting Pre-Open: ANF, DLTR, GME, PDCO, TGT, BKE, BONT, BRC, CATO, CRRC, CYBX, DCI, DEST, EDAP, KIRK, LQDT, PACT, PERY, RAVN, SMRT, SPB, SSI, TAOM, TWMC Reporting Post-Close: ADSK, GPS, INTU, ROST, ARUN, BERY, CERE, CHRM, CISG, DLIA, GEOS, HAYN, LRAD, MENT, MRVL, NGVC, P, SFXE, SOFO, SPLK, TFM, VMEM, WAIR Economic Data: Jobless Claims / PPI @ 8:30am, Markit US PMI @ 8:58am, Bloomberg Economic Expectations & Consumer Comfort @ 9:45am, Philadelphia Fed @ 10am EIA natural gas storage @ 10:30am, Treasury auction in 10yr TIPS @ 1pm ($13B) Fed Speakers: Powell @ 9:45am (NYC), Lacker @ 12:30pm (Asheboro, NC), Bullard @ 1pm (Rogers, AR) EFTA00379409 Conferences: UBS Tech (Sausalito), Bofa Energy (Miami), RBC MLP (Dallas), Robin Hood Investor Conference (NYC) Analyst/Investor Days: CTRX, MDCA, BRS, MDSO, RIG, BLRX, NUS, FHN, SNE, INTC, CSH, SREV Non-Deal Roadshows: AA0I, ANFI, ATRC, BK, BMY, GARB, CERS, CIT, COHR, CPHD, CTRL, CYTK, DIOD, DXCM, FLS, FUEL, HOT, OMN, INWK, MAS, MMM, MYGN, NJ, NXPI, OMCL, OZM, PLT, PNR, RCPT, SIMG, SPDC, SPHS, SPNC, SSREY, SWI, TAC, TNC, TRN, UBIC, UMBF, UPI, VFC, WWWW, XLS, XXIA, ZAGG Shareholder Meetings: LIME, LYTS, MSG, NBN, SMED, GBR, ARAY, ELX, UNIS, BSPM Equity/Mixed Shelfs: ADT, AJG, THS Other Newspaper Articles 8 Stories WSJ cautious: JC Penney (JCP) WSJ • US budget talks generate cautious optimism FT • White House snubs Fannie-Freddie plan FT • Gold slides after Fed minutes FT • Investment banks warned over "inefficiency" FT • BOJ extends ultra-loose monetary policy FT • French private sector contracts sharply FT • Fed casts about for end-game on easy-money policy WSJ • US Fed to taper QE in 'coming months" Telegraph • GOP maps out waves of attacks over health law NYT • Probe of How U.S. Agency's Medicare Move Reached Investors Hits Wall WSJ • Fed Casts About for Endgame on Easy-Money Policy WSJ • Drop in Traffic Takes Toll on Investors in Private Roads WSJ • Virtual-Currency Craze Spawns Bitcoin Wannabes WSJ • Sears Appears to Be a Stuffed Turkey WSJ EFTA00379410 • Say Goodbye to the Car Salesman WSJ • FBI tries new tactic in currency probe WSJ • Goldman trading slump tied in part to faulty currency trade WSJ • Currency craze mints Bitcoin wannabes WSJ • Sears appears to be a stuffed turkey WSJ • House Democrats get the yips: Karl Rove op-ed WSJ • The Gipper's guide to negotiation: George Schultz op-ed WSJ • Fed Looks for Other Ways to Aid Economy NYT • Toyota Shows Off Fuel-Cell Automobile NYT • Traders have time for IPOs even as they wait for the Fed's minutes The Times • Tourism is just the job for economic revival The Times • Bitcoin's crash delivers reality check in China The Times • Rate-setters unconvinced of rally's staying power Independent • £1,430,000,000,000 (that's £1.43 trillion): Britain's personal debt timebomb Independent • Saviour is needed urgently as Co-op Bank faces being stripped of its name Independent • The rise of money trading has made our economy all mud and no brick Guardian • MPC must not be blinded by the wrong data and raise rates too soon Guardian Key Events This Week Friday: JOLTs Job Openings, Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Index, Eamigs (PETM, FL) Key Events on the Horizon Nov 26 - MSCI changes effective on the close Nov 27 — Italy Senate to vote on expelling Berlusconi from Parliament Nov 28 — US Thanksgiving (market closed) Dec 5 — BOE & ECB rate decisions EFTA00379411 Dec 18 — FOMC rate decision Jan 15 — Current CR runs out Feb 7 — Debt ceiling deadline (Treasury can use extraordinary measures for — 1 month past this date) Ike Groff 1680 Washington Blvd I Stamford, CT 069011 S (203) 302-7300 I .7.?] ..Description: Description: This 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