EFTA00385970.pdf

From: Subject: Early Tour 8.9.13 Date: Fri, 09 Aug 2013 09:54:10 +0000 Inline-Images: image001.jpg: image002.png L,,:pescription: Description: Good Morning ... European Markets mixed +/- 30 bps (Portugal +1.2%) ... NKY +0.07%, SHCOMP +0.36%, HSI +0.70%, ASX -0.19%, TWSE -0.65%, KOSPI -0.17% EUR 1.3381 (unch) JPY 96.63 (+0.04%) AUD 0.9152 (+0.52%) NZD 0.8017 (+0.11%) CAD 1.0304 (+0.24%) US 10yr 2.59% Japan 10yr 0.76°A, Germany 10yr 1.69% Portugal 10yr 6.55% Italy 10yr 4.21°A, Spain 10yr 4.53% Futures: Dow -37, Nasdaq -4, S&P -4 DXY $81.00 (+3c) Crude $104.18 (+78c) Gold $1306.50 (-$3.40) Copper +0A3% Silver +0.26% Choppy session in Asia overnight with the NKY & SHCOMP both managing to eke out small gains on the day. Big macro day in China: CPI +2.7% y/y vs est +2.8% (unchanged from June and well below the government's +3.5% upper limit), PPI declined for 17th straight month (-2.3% y/y vs est -2.2%), Retail Sales +13.2% vs est +13.5%, Industrial Output +9.7% vs est +8.9%, FAI +20.2% vs est +20.0%. Japan O2 preliminary GDP will be out on Sunday night which should have implications for the consumption tax debate. Multiple market holidays today including: India, Philippines, Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, South Africa, Turkey, UAE. European markets mixed in subdued trading to finish the week. Earnings quiet today but, on the M&A front, KPN is trading +16.4% after Carlos Slim's America Movil announced a €2.40/share bid for the remainder of KPN = 20% premium to yesterday's close (stock trading €2.33 last < deal price despite some suggesting the price is unlikely to be high enough). In the US, Priceline ticked as high as $988/share (+5.8%) in the after-hours to test its 1999 highs after reporting O2 sales that comfortably beat estimates. SPA's -4 handles = 1689.20 last. ***Wholesale Inventories @ 10aman • Priceline revs easily beat with profit +24% as International bookings grew (trading +5.5%) • Monster Beverage O2 revs trailed & profit fell hurt by higher legal expenses (trading -5%) • Nvidia net off as revs declined & gave weak outlook on PC slump (eps topped) (trading -2%) • Assured Guaranty op eps missed & profit down but bookvalue inc due to buybacks (unch) • Rackspace revenue & profit beat expectations (18c eps vs 13c eps ests) (trading +12%) • Gap July sales weaker but sees O2 profit above estimates (solid margins) (trading -1%) • CareFusion O4 profit +14% as margins improved but eps missed ($750M buyback) (trading -1%) EFTA00385970 • Blackberry mulling going private (give company more room to fix its problems) (Reuters) • JPM near SEC settlement on "London Whale (may admit failures on disclosure/controls) (NYT) • OFT opens consultation on commitments proposed by Booking.com, Expedia, and HG • America Movil bids €2.40/share for KPN in public offer (20% premium to yesterday's close) (KPN +16.4%) • Danone buys YoCrunch (mix-in toppings specialist) to support yogurt growth in the US (trading -0.10%) • Nokian Renkaat (tires) Q2 net income and sales below estimates, lowers FY guidance (trading +3.4%) • Rheinmettal O2 slightly better (they had warned end of July), automotive margins strong (trading +5.6%) • Novozymes ebit and revenues both beat expectations, BioEnergy division stronger (trading +1.8%) • Balfour Beatty sells UK facilities business for £190 million, decent short interest in the name (trading -0.36%) • Tesco has entered into a MoU with China Resources to combine Chinese retail operations (trading +1.1%) • Swedish Banks: finance minister Borg talking about raising risk weights on mortgage assets • Norway's $760B oil fund (largest swf in the world) stepping up efforts to be more active (FT) • France June industrial prod -1.4% m/m vs est +0.3%, manufacturing prod -0.4% vs est +0.5% • Prada reported yesterday after Asia close (during US hours), numbers look light (closed -1.8%) • Nikon cuts forecast by almost 25% as demand for compact cameras weakens (closed -14.3%) Leading European Sectors: Basic Res +2.01%, Telco +1.15% Autos/Parts +0.55% Lagging European Sectors: Real Estate -0.51%, Food/Bev -0.42%, Chemicals -0.22% DNDN revs missed — WIFI good qtr— HAYN penny light AIRM revs missed — FISV 10M buyback inc — SLXP cuts eps view MCP loss wider — LGF topped ests — UBNT eps beat street DV post loss — MDRX swung to loss — BRKS rev view trailed CALL reaffirms forecast — MDVN loss narrower — BFAM eps beat DATA revs ahead — CPLA $50M buyback — OPLK guides up BNNY eps missed — SCMP eps view trailed — SF strong rev growth RNR $500M buyback — RICK revs/net rose — PEGA license revs up YOKU loss better than ests — RNDY cuts view — UNXL 40c loss/shr FUR NA earnings light — SRS IM earnings light — WMH LN small acquisition Secondaries (announced/priced): WWWW (convert), LIN, TPLM, NCLH, OEPM, QLTY (holders) EFTA00385971 IPO's (filed/priced): Cvent (CVT) 5.6M shares priced at $21 (above range), Stock Building Supply (STCK) 7M shares priced at $14 (below range), World Point Terminals (WPT) 8.8M shares priced at $20, Frank's International (FI) 30M shares priced at $22 (above range), Mix Telematics (MIXT) 6.3M ADS priced at $16/sh (high-end) US Key Research: ••• GS downgrades FL, Compass Point cuts DV, Jefferies initiates XXIA (buy), CS downgrades SPH • DB upgrades IHS (buy), Wells upgrades STJ, JPM upgrades CSCO, Raja downgrades LEAP RBC initiates VNTV (op) & downgrades MPW & upgrades RGLD, SunTrust initiates THO (buy) Europe Key Research: ••• UBS upgrades HGG LN & SDA1V FH, GS downgrades SPT LN & CORA NA, UBS downgrades LRE LN • Commerzbank upgrades WCH GY, JPM upgrades ADP FP & downgrades FFtA GY, Baader downgrades BEI GY ••• Kepler initiates F IM (reduce) & HAW GY (buy), Nordea downgrades VWS DC, Exane upgrades CBK GY ••• Investec upgrades HSBA LN, Shorecap downgrades DGE LN, HSBC adds LHA GY to Europe Super Ten portfolio ••• UBS positive ASC LN, Citi downgrades HGG LN, BofA upgrades RIBH AV, AV/ LN, SMDR LN ••• Citi downgrades CWC LN, Commerzbank upgrades SFQ GR, DB initiates KGX GR (buy) • HSBC downgrades TFA GR, HSBC initiates ANH LN, JPM upgrades MFON RU, Mirabaud downgrades FUN SW • Nordea downgrades RTRKS FH, Numis downgrades SDL LN & BBY LN, HSBC downgrades SDR LN • DB downgrades TTI GY, Baader downgrades GWI1 GY, SocGen upgrades KRZ ID & downgrades CCH LN Reporting Pre-Open: NRG, ABFS, ANIP, ASFI, BECN, CPK, DRH, EBIX, EVEP, FSS, GSE, HNR, HZNP, JRCC, LABL, LACO, LIWA, MEA, MHR, MINI, MPAA, MRGE, RDNT, SARA, STRL, TLF, TPC, URRE, VTG, WWAV, YONG, ZUES Reporting Post-Close: CDXS, CECO, EGY, TECUA, PBR Economic Data: Wholesale Inventories @ 10am Conferences: No major conferences Analyst/Investor Days: MU EFTA00385972 Non-Deal Roadshows: ACRE, ADM, AEP, DNDN, EC, GVA, HF, LXRX, MGM Shareholder Meetings: IL, HOTR, KCAP Equity/Mixed Shelfs: NPSP, JNPR Other Newspaper Articles & Stories WSJ positive: T-Mobile (TMUS) WSJ Tesla (TSLA) WSJ WSJ cautious: Nestle (NESN SW) WSJ Rio Tinto (RIO AU) WSJ • So Where Is the Stock Market Heading? Barron's • Royal Navy ships to sail to Gibraltar amid tension with Spain FT • BoE rate vow set to fuel buy-to-let mortgage boom FT • Mark Carney plays down skepticism over interest rate policy FT • Iraq's faltering oil resurgence raises price fears FT • Obama's Putin snub puts new focus on Moscow's China ties FT • Renewables: A rising power FT • PayPal co-founder finds fertile ground for growth with Glow app FT • Out of sight, out of mind — a rotten way to quit a war FT • Dutch mood shifts against austerity and the EU FT • India needs more than a new broom FT • Muted China inflation to spark rate cut calls FT • US orders non-emergency personnel to leave Lahore consulate FT • Why the eurozone will come apart sooner or later FT • Letta has survived, but now must start to govern FT • Egypt must restore its fledgling democracy — and fast FT • Wanted: writer to help Fed share its feelings FT • Civil unrest squeezes Libyan oil exports FT EFTA00385973 • Cash lure to stop firms deserting ETFs in times of stress FT • T-Mobile USA: busy signal Lex • Nestle: vanity project Lex • Rio Tinto: cost v price Lex • Solar energy: German sunshine Lex • In Deal Hunt, Big-Game Buffett Settles for Small Prey WSJ • Italy Aims for More Budget Austerity WSJ • 'London Whale' Unlikely to Face Charges WSJ • China Trade Offers Taste of Recovery WSJ • Tesco, China Resources in Talks Over Joint Supermarket Venture in China WSJ • Banker to the Poor No More WSJ • Noonan: How Obama Wooed the Middle Class WSJ • Daniel Yergin: China's Big Commodity Chill WSJ • Seizing Mortgages for Fun and Profit WSJ • France is the biggest concern in Europe: Fed's Fisher CNBC • China data blitz points to stabilizing economy CNBC • Why the Aussie is a 'screaming buy': Economist CNBC • The quiet evolution of the Singapore consumer CNBC • How a Trabant can steer Putin the right way The Times • The Anti-Social Network The Times • Stars and Strife The Times • Focus on inflation, Mr Carney. Nothing else The Times • Zimbabwe admits polls were flawed The Times • The rocket man is still flying high The Times • Housing recovery gains momentum as buy-to-let lending rises to £5bn The Times • Ed, you can't remain a Medium-Sized Beast The Times • US starts criminal inquiry against JP Morgan over subprime sales Independent • Serious Farce Office: SFO in biggest criminal data breach ever Independent • Jim O'Neill: So what do the Brics countries want from their new development bank? Independent • James Moore: We'd better not rush headlong into a party as Camey goes for grow Independent • Time Warner-CBS stand-off highlights the lack of competition in US Telegraph EFTA00385974 • Inflation will be back before Carney's 7 per cent unemployment target is met Telegraph • Could stamp duty 'rebates' help the housing market? Telegraph • Give David Cameron his due for unleashing Tory animal spirits Telegraph • Lavabit email service abruptly shut down citing government interference Guardian • BlackBerry 'mulls going private' Guardian • UK economic growth will strengthen for rest of 2013, say experts Guardian • Britain's booming population is a blessing, not a curse Guardian • Richard Dawkins' tweets on Islam are as rational as the rants of an extremist Muslim cleric Guardian • Trade data improve economic prospects China Daily • Pharm giant says it takes bribery claims 'seriously' China Daily • Morsi supporters dig in as Egypt talks stall China Daily • Israelis, Palestinians to continue peace talks China Daily • Bubblenomics will fuel total demand in the British economy City AM • The Long View: Our very own Breaking Bad could be the wake-up call we desperately need City AM • History repeats itself: Why the Bank's interest rates pledge lacks credibility City AM • British business would thrive under a bespoke new deal with Brussels City AM • Woes of Detroit Hurt Borrowing by Its Neighbors NY Times • Goldman Sachs Traders Lost on Six Days in Second Quarter HITC • India's Fear of Growth Bloomberg • Why Is U.S. Economic Mobility Worse in the South Bloomberg Key Events Next Week Monday: Treasury Monthly Budget Statement, Japan Q2 GDP, BOJ Minutes, PacCrest Tech Forum (Vail), Jefferies Global Industrials Conference (NYC), Earnings (SYY, IOC, SINA) Tuesday: US Retail sales, Business Inventories, ZEW Survey, Eurozone IP, JPM Auto Conference (NYC), Opco Tech/Internet/Communications Conference (Boston), Earnings (JDSU, FLO, CREE) Wednesday: PPI, MBA Mortgage Applications, 13F Filings, BOE minutes, France/Germany/Eurozone Q2 GDP, Canaccord Growth Stock Conference (Boston), Earnings (DE, M, OSIS, A, CSCO, NTAP) EFTA00385975 Thursday: Philadelphia Fed, Empire Manufacturing, NAHB Housing Survey, CPI, Industrial Production, Earnings (EL, KSS, PRGO, WMT, AMAT, JWN) Friday: Nonfarm Productivity & Unit Labor Costs, Housing Starts & Building Permits, U. of Michigan Consumer Confidence, Eurozone CPI & trade balance Saturday: China July property prices Key Events on the Horizon August 21 — Fed Minutes from July30/31 FOMC meeting August 22-24 — Jackson Hole Annual Economic Policy Symposium (Bernanke not attending) September 5 — BOEJECB rate decisions September 7 — Australian election September 18 - FOMC rate decision September 22 — German elections ■~I Ly]Description: Description: EFTA00385976 This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential and intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed. 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