EFTA00401802.pdf

From: Ike Groff Subject: Early Tour 11.13.12 Date: Tue, 13 Nov 2012 10:59:57 +0000 Inline-Images: image00 1 jpg; image002.png RDescription: Description: Good Morning ... European Markets off 40-120 bps ... ASX -1.53%, SHCOMP -1.51%, NKY -0.18%, HSI -1.13%, KOSPI -0.59% EUR 1.2682 (-0.22%) JPY 79.43 (+0.08%) RUB 31.8155 (-0.57%) Spain 10yr 5.94% Italy 10yr 5.05% US 10yr 1.58% Futures: Dow -74. Nasdaq -17, S&P -10 DXY $81.17 (+14c) Crude $84.95 (-61c) Gold $1726.70 (-$4.20) Copper -0.71% More of the same in Asia — markets were lower on a slight up-tick from recent volumes as global uncertainty continues to weigh on sentiment. SHCOMP particularly weak on talk that some names from the new Politburo Standing Committee (full line-up expected to meet with media at 1 lam local time on Thursday) have been leaked and are being viewed as "too conservative." In addition, Xinhua News reported that the government's current property tax trial is expected to be expanded and restrictions on home purchases will not be relaxed in the short term. This, along with yesterday's weaker new loans data had the SHCOMP -1.51% to a 2-month low. And the Nikkei has had its worst run in 7months, closing down for a 7th session — with the yen creeping back to 79 & political uncertainty and weak eco data all cause for concern. Meanwhile, Eurozone FinMins agree to allow Greece to implement its austerity program over 4yrs instead of 2yrs but postpone decision on the next tranche of Greek aid until next week (as expected) while differences of opinion between the IMF and EU rise to the surface as hinted in the press in recent weeks. EU's Juncker declares to the media that Greece must now get its debt/gdp ratio to 120% by 2022 instead of 2020 — only to have IMF's Lagarde announce that she thinks 2020 is more appropriate shortly thereafter (a). Greek sells E4.0625 billion in 1-3 month paper this morning to roll over E5 billion issue maturing Friday. Italy sells E6.5 billion in 12-month BOTs (avg yield 1.76% vs 1.94% on Oct 10). Menill's November Fund Manager Survey (taken pre-election) is out and notes that HF net exposure to equities of 40% is at its highest level since June 2007 (they point out that whenever exposure has exceeded 35% in recent years, the SPX has underperformed USTs by 700bps in the following month). Congress returns to Capitol Hill this afternoon to prepare for negotiations around the fiscal cliff (formal talks begin on Friday). Republican economist and Romney adviser Glenn Hubbard stresses in the Fr that "the first step is to raise average (not marginal) tax rates on upper-income taxpayers" which entails closing loopholes and limiting deductions. Volumes dead in the US yesterday (-27% from 20day) with the bond market closed. Current volumes in Europe tracking 120% of 20day. SPA's -10 handles = 1368 last. "'Conferences NYC - Bofa Banking & Fin Services / MS Global Consumer / Barclays Auto*" ""HD, TJX, DKS, KORS, SKS #'s pre-open / CSCO reports after dose". ""Obama scheduled to meet with business groups today". EFTA00401802 • Kabel Deutschland solid O3, good ARPU, revs inline, increasing sales guidance (trading -1.5%) • K+S Q3 EBIT misses on higher potash costs, cutting guidance on weak road salt demand (trading -5.4%) • Italian Banks reporting today: Intesa San Paolo, Unicredit, Banco Popolare, UBI Banca • Norma Group Q3 inline (prelims 11/02), confirms guidance, stock off 200/0 from highs (trading -1.1%) • FLSmidth O3 poor, revenues & pre-tax miss, EBIT light, guiding to bottom end of range (trading -4.6%) • ITV IMS statement reads well, cost savings ahead, no shocks, ad market remains volatile (trading +8.2%) • Lufthansa may have reached cabin crew wage deal, in coop talks with Turkish Airlines (trading +0.40%) • Lagardere Q3 sales inline, LFL light due to weakening French market, reit FY guidance (trading -2.5%) • CRH O3 inline, cost cutting on track, cautious outlook/EBITDA guidance, shorted into Ws (trading +0.70%) • Vodafone H1 light, revs small miss, £2.4bn Verizon dividend inline, no consensus change (trading -4.7%) • Syngenta begins Devgen offer (to run to 12/05), receives Isopyrazam Fungicide approval (trading -0.40%) • TalkTalk H1 good, EBITDA better, raising dividend as expected, confirms guidance (trading +7.7%) • Anglo American reports that Minas project Capex to exceed top end estimates (trading -3.7%) • Scor O3 net income slight better, reaffirms targets set out within strategic plan (trading -2.5%) • Swiss Life O3 sales slightly better driven by France, 9 month premiums inline (trading -1.3%) • Publicis receives approval from AFM for LBI bid of Eur2.85 per share (trading -0.54%) • Pirelli quarterly revs inline, EBIT and net light, cutting 2012 sales target (trading -2.8%) • E.ON 9-month statement misses, reducing guidance, broker downgrades (trading -9.9%) • Brunello Cucinnelli mixed Q3 post yesterday's close, sales slowdown in Italy (trading -3.1%) • Paul Tucker (current deputy governor of BOE) favored to become next BOE governor (BBC) • Troika report puts Greek debt at 144% of GDP in 2020 & 134% in 2022 if no policy changes (Reuters) • Germany's November ZEW index falls to -15.7 versus estimate gain to -10.0 from -11.5 prior • UK October CPI +0.5% m/m versus estimate +0.2% (+2.7% y/y versus estimate +2.4%) • France O3 preliminary wages q/q +0.4% vs +0.5% prior (non-farm payrolls q/q -0.3% vs est -0.2%) • Spain October consumer price index +0.8% m/m vs est +0.9% (+3.5% y/y vs est +3.5%) • Traders expect China's State Reserves Bureau to resume purchases of base metals this week (FT) • China Ministry of Housing says property bubble will take years to correct (no policy easing any time soon) • Australian business confidence worsens in Oct as global fears & slowdown in cap spending hurt outlook Leading European Sectors: Food/Bev +0.16%, Tech +0.11%, Trav/Les -0.04% Lagging European Sectors: Utilities -2.66%, Telco -1.81%, Basic Res -1.57% EFTA00401803 NO raises revenue view — HOLX guides FY eps lower — OXGN positive trial WFT revs light — ORLY additional $500M buyback — EPHC special dividend JEC earnings mixed — WX sees revs below ests — RPT boosts ffo/shr view Secondaries (announced/priced): MWE, PRLB IPO's: N/A Key Research: Key Research: Key Research: Key Research: Key Research: Key Research: Key Research: Key Research: Key Research: Key Research: Key Research: Key Research: Wells initiates HITT (op), CS initiates REGN/SGEN/XOMA (op's) & IMGN/PDLI (neutral's) Barcap initiates BERY (ew), DB initiates SDRL (buy) & downgrades CXS/NLY JPM downgrades CJES, Opco downgrades SYUT, Citi initiates BERY/SDLP (buy's) GS upgrades FFIV and ALB (buy), Piper upgrades SSYS/DDD, Janney initiates RBC (buy) Bofa upgrades EV, MS downgrades JNS, JMP downgrades JEF, ABN initiate CEO SS (buy) Akros downgrade PC IM, Equinet upgrade GBF GY, Equinet upgrade WIN GY Numis upgrade ITV, Equita upgrade SNA IM, Intermonti downgrade CPR IM CBK downgrade SIE GY, CBK downgrade EOAN GY, Numis downgrade JPR LN Barc upgrade GEM IM, MainFirst upgrade SAZ GY, Chev downgrade DIA SM DB initiate TLX GY (hold), DB initiate SDRL NO (buy), Barc downgrade CPR IM HSBC downgrade EOAN GY, UBS downgrade IAG LN, HSBC downgrade DPW GY UBS downgrade AVV LN, RBC upgrade AVV LN Reporting Pre-Open: HD, TJX, ACM, AUQ, BGMD, BRD, DKS, EGT, ESLT, FRGI, GMET, HPJ, HZNP, KORS, NTI, ORBT, PLUG, RGDX, SRA, SCON, SKS, VRS, DSS Reporting Post-Close: CSCO, AEZS, API, BIOF, CIDM, DCIN, DVOX, EGL, EVOL, FIGI, GA, GALE, GFF, GSB, HMIN, IAG, KOOL, LOV, LPR, MTSI, NKTR, NLST, ROCM, SUMR, TCX, WAIR, WWD, TOD IM Economic Data: NFIB Small Business Optimism @ 7:30am, IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism @ 10am, Monthly Treasury Budget @ 2pm Fed Speakers: Yellen @ 3:30pm (Berkeley) EFTA00401804 Conferences: W Blair Healthcare (NYC), Bofa Banking and Fin Services (NYC), Bofa Global Energy (Miami), Scotia Telecom Conferences: Barcap Global Automotive (NYC), Dahlman Global Metals, Mining & Materials (NYC), Lazard Healthcare (NYC) Conferences: MS Global Consumer (NYC), Stephens Fall Investment Conference (Philadelphia), UBS Euro Conference (London) Analyst/Investor Days: HSNI, SWI, HUM, MRCY, SIMG, UFI, XRX, MAT, BBY, NO, CELG Non-Deal Roadshows: AEZS, AFSI, AMD, ANSS, B, BRO, CECE, CHKP, CHMT, CIR, CRUS, CTSH, DBD, ECPG, ENR, EVER, GOLD, GPOR, HNI, HSH, IMO, INTC, INVN, IPAS, KOP, LPS, MDVN, MSA, MTDR, NTGR, OSK, PBNY, PSSI, PWE, RBCN, SHF, SLG, SPSC, SYNA, TRNX, WNC, XPO, ZAGG, LKO, ABAX Shareholder Meetings: ETH, FFHL, PRCP, ADP, FMD, VSR, ANTP, IMGN, AVNW, JDAS Equity/Mixed Shelfs: N/A Other Newspaper Articles & Stories Barron's positive: Leucadia National Corp-Jefferies Group merger (LUK, JEF) Barron's WSJ cautious: Groupon (GRPN) WSJ • U.S. Redraws World Oil Map WSJ • Large European Banks Stash Cash WSJ • Lenders at Odds Over Greek Debt WSJ • UBS Tells Why it Cut Off a Limb WSJ • Spanish Banks Freeze Foreclosures WSJ • ECB Is Confident Greece Can Avoid Default WSJ • Outage at the Big Board Muddles Day's Trading WSJ • Democrats Like a Romney Idea on Income Tax NYT • Facebook's False Faces Undermine Its Credibility NYT • Canada sees risk in U.S. oil boom Globe and Mail • Extension to add el 5bn to Greek bailout FT EFTA00401805 • Leaked Greek troika report: devil in the details FT • EU-IMF feud erupts over Greek debt FT • Greece battles to avert €5bn default FT • Fund Greek debt buyback with asset sales FT • China and US navigate in risky waters FT • IMF chief and EU clash over Greek debt Telegraph • Merkel sticks to austerity script in Portugal as revolt builds Telegraph • Income investors look to emerging markets Telegraph • Europe still vulnerable to breakaway governments Guardian • America on the edge of a liscal cliff? Guardian • US Justice officials to interview City bankers over Libor 'fixing' The Times • Greece on course for extra time and money The Times • Politicians told to 'just fix it' as cliff nears The Times • Islands dispute pushes Japan into 'recession' The Times • US to become world leader in oil and gas thanks to fracking Independent • Japan slump adds to woes over global economy Independent • It's all change in the Russian economy Independent Key Events This Week Wednesday: FOMC Minutes, PPI, Retail Sales, Eurozone Industrial Production, GS Industrials Conference (Boston), UBS Global Tech Conference (NYC), MS TMT Conference (Barcelona), Earnings (ANF, SPLS, TYC, LTD, NTAP) Thursday: China's 18th Party Congress concludes, Empire Manufacturing, CPI, Philadelphia Fed Survey, US Bank Stress Tests, RBC MLP Conference (Dallas), Earnings (DLTR, GME, HP, ROST, TGT, VIAB, WMT, ADSK, DELL, GPS, SHLD) Friday: €5 billion in Greek debt matures, Obama meeting with key Republican leaders, US Industrial Production, TIC Flows, Earnings (SJM, NTZ) Saturday: Obama travelling to Asia November 17-21 Key Events on the Horizon EFTA00401806 November 20 — Eurogroup meeting to discuss Greece aid tranche & debt sustainability November 22/23 — EU Leaders Summit November 22 — US Thanksgiving (markets closed) November 23 — US markets 1 pm close, Black Friday for Retailers November 25 — Catalonia regional election in Spain November 28 — EU FinMin teleconference (tentative) December 22-January 20 — US Congress scheduled to adjourn Ike Groff 1680 Washington Blvd I Stamford, CT 069011 It S i D e s c r i p t i o n : Description: II This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential and intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed. 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