EFTA00402020.pdf

From: Ike Groff Subject: Early Tour 11.9.12 Date: Fri, 09 Nov 2012 11:03:56 +0000 Inline-Images: image001.jpg: image002.png u,pescription: Description: Good Morning ... European Markets off 30-100 bps (Spain -1.2%) ... ASX -0.49%, NKY -0.90%, SHCOMP -0.12%, HSI -0.85%, KOSPI -0.52% EUR 1.2708 (-0.31%) JPY 79.24 (+0.30%) EUR/JPY 100.79 (-0.50%) Copper -1.05% Spain 10yr 5.85% Italy 10yr 5.02% US 10yr 1.59% Futures: Dow -38, Nasdaq -1, S&P -3 DXY $80.93 (+14c) Crude $84.84 (-25c) Gold $1734.00 (+$8.00) China macro data out overnight and better across the board as their stats chief hinted yesterday (CPI +1.7% vs est +1.9%, IP +9.6% vs est +9.4%, Retail Sales +14.5% vs est +14.4%, FAI +20.7% vs +20.6%). Nevertheless most Asia markets closed in the red after another weak handoff from the US (SHCOMP down every day this week). European equity markets softer as well, as is credit. German economy minister warns that there will be a 'noticeably weaker economic dynamic" over the next six months. A Eurozone official is out reiterating that a decision on Greece is unlikely on Monday & the Guardian suggests it is due to 'acute differences" between the IMF and EU/ECB. says Greece must now hope to secure its next tranche of aid at the Eurozone FinMin meeting on Nov 19 or a e eaders Summit on Nov 22. EUR hitting 2 month lows — 1.2708 last. Obama will make a statement at 1:05pm EST to call on Congress to take steps on deficit/economy. US 10yr < 1.60%. AAPL trading inline to yesterdays close pre-open (538 last). SPA's were slightly higher overnight but now rolling back over -3 handles = 1372 last = lows of morning. "'Import Price Index @ 8:30am, Michigan Confidence @ 9:55am, Wholesale Inventories @ 10am*** • Priceline.com to buy Kayak $1.8B ($40-shr cash/stock) = 29% premium to yesterdays close • Disney Q4 profit inline but revs from film & interactive units missed forecast (trading -2.5%) • Groupon drastically missed rev & profit ests (core biz almost stopped growing) (trading -15%) • International Game Tech O4 eps / revs beat & sees FY2013 above estimates (trading +8%) • Lionsgate net beat & raised outlook on better 'Hunger Games" video sales (trading +9%) • Nordstrom Q3 eps missed ests but boosted low end of Year eps/comp forecast (trading -1%) • Microchip guided Q3 adj eps & revenue below expectations (declared qtrly cash 35.2c div) • Nvidia #'s topped, grabbed market share & won chip tablet orders (paying div 151 time) (trading +2%) • Allscripts evaluating strategic alternatives after sales & business bookings fell well short of ests • Richard Schulze bid for Best Buy may be for less than original offer of $24-26/share (Reuters) EFTA00402020 • Richemont H1 slightly better, Oct sales +7% ex-currency, CEO to step down, priced in (trading -1.4%) • Credit Agricole headline numbers worse than expected but largely due to one-offs (trading -6.4%) • Allianz reports net income and operating pre-tax profit inline with prelims on Oct 29 (trading -1.5%) • Lafarge reports EBITDA inline, reiterates FY demand forecast, stock has had good run (trading +0.49%) • Novo Nordisk: FDA panel votes 8-4 to approve new ultra-long-lasting insulin Degludec (trading +8.3%) • IAG reports inline with estimates but FY loss much worse & cutting 4,500 jobs at Iberia (trading +1.7%) • Rolls Royce trading statement overall inline but lowers Marine guidance & COO retiring (trading +0.58%) • BMW group sales +13.2% y/y in Oct (slightly better than the +12% suggested last week (trading +0.80%) • Randstad says that Brian Wilkinson to step down from executive board (trading -0.41%) • Rheinmetall profit warning (O3 weaker in both divisions & lowers FY sales outlook) (trading -7.4%) • Moller-Maersk O3 net misses estimates but full-year guidance looks better (trading +2.0%) • Diageo to buy 53.4% stake in India's United Spirits Ltd. for $2.04 billion (trading +0.56°/0) • Moody's is out saying that it will communicate its view on France within a few weeks • EU official says no Greek default on Nov 16 (€4 billion bond redemption due that day) • Germany's October CPI +0.0% m/m versus estimate +0.0% (+2.0% y/y verus estimate +2.0%) • French industrial production -2.7% m/m vs est -1.0%, manufacturing -3.2% m/m vs est -1.3% • French business confidence remains close to 2 year low (92 versus est 90 and 92 prior) • Italy's September industrial production falls most in 5 months (-1.5% m/m vs est -1.6%) • Chow Tai Fook sees cut to gross margins from gold-hedging issues (closed -5.6%) • RBA cuts 2013 growth outlook mostly due to weaker mining investment and a tighter budget Leading European Sectors: Healthcare +0.47`1/0, Food/Bev +0.22%, Media +0.01% Lagging European Sectors: Insurance -1.74%, Banks -1.72%, Utilities -1.08% VZ expects lower 2012 capex — ACIW reaffirms forecast — BRKS guides down CBOU penny better — BXP 18% dividend increase — EGOV penny light DV increases semi-annual div — DLB revs beat — TMO buyback & raises div HPP raises ffo view — DGIT cfo to leave — BID loss inline, revs beat SPRD sees revs inline — ZIP sees FY12 revs up bit — PEGA cfo resignation Notable Options Activity Yesterday: EFTA00402021 KORS ($50.70 -7.2%)- A customer sold 3600 Dec 50 puts at $3.60. Trader is willing to be long the stock below $50, with a $46.40 break even. TLM ($10.86 +.21) 20,000 April 9 puts were sold at $.40. $10.84 reference in the stock. CROX ($12.12 -2.18%) Customer bought 5000 January 15 calls for $0.20 and $0.25. Secondaries (announced/priced): ARRY, PSLV, PVR, LMI LN (rights), PRGX, LGCY, TUMI, PAA IPO's: N/A Key Research: Janney downgrades DIS, Barcap upgrades HFC & downgrades CTXS, Jeff upgrades MNT/MOH Key Research: Nomura upgrades MMM, Raja initiates ABMD (mp) & upgrades CCOI, Piper cuts MDRX Key Research: Baird upgrades FAST, Mizuho initiates FRX (buy), JPM upgrades MRO & downgrades CSCO Key Research: Wells initiates PVTB (mp), BB&T initiates WWW (hold), Steme Agree upgrades OZRK (buy) Key Research: Key upgrades RYL (buy), Citi initiates TUMI/ZLC (buy), Bofa initiates PANW (buy), Investec downgrades SGE LN Key Research: Bofa initiates EXL (neut), GS upgrades ATK (buy), Canaccord initiates LCI (buy), Cheuvreux downgrades AGL IM Key Research: Equita downgrades AGL IM, Numis upgrades G4S LN, HSBC upgrades KBC BB, Seymour downgrades RTO LN Key Research: Cheuvreux upgrades UBS & adds CSGN VX to select list, Nomura upgrades GLE FP, Natixis downgrades PRY IM Key Research: Numis downgrades SPT LN, Barclays downgrades DOCK NO, DB downgrades EEEK GA, BofA upgrades ADM LN Key Research: UBS downgrades AKBNK TI, Barclays upgrades CRDA LN, UBS upgrades MPI LN, Exane downgrades RWE GY Key Research: Commerzbank cautious SIE GY, UBS upgrades VK FP, Citi downgrades BBY LN & BYG LN, ING upgrades DSM NA Key Research: BofA downgrades AGN NA, JPM downgrades HEI GY, BofA upgrades CPW LN Reporting Pre-Open: AEE, COV, JCP, WCRX, ADY, APO, BAM, BTN, CEP, CRAY, CVU, DXYN, EPAM, ERF, FLO, FSS, FWLT, FXEN, GEN, GNVC, HNR, HTWR, HWCC, HYGS, IVAN, LIWA, LNT, LPI, LSE, MCF, MEA, MEMP, MGI, MTG, NPSP, NTRI, OMG, RDNT, SSP, STRAA, URRE, VSCP, VTG, WMC, XIN, XTEX, XTXI, YONG, HEK EFTA00402022 Reporting Post-Close: CRDN, CWCO, LVB, MDVN, SYUT, TIGR, WAVX, XIDE Economic Data: Import Price Index @ 8:30am, U. of Michigan Confidence @ 9:55am, Wholesale Inventories @ 10am Fed Speakers: Duke @ 10am (Chicago) Conferences: No major conferences Analyst/Investor Days: BANC, PNW Non-Deal Roadshows: AKRX, BJRI, BLL, CCOI, CRNT, DNKN, ELX, EXTR, FET, GLUU, HF, HTM, MJN, NEOL, NSR, ONNN, POWI, TBBK, TELNY, TRIB, USTR, VNTV Shareholder Meetings: OTIV, SSN, GEN, NRG, EL, COPY, ADEP, EVI, HEK, EGAN Equity/Mixed Shelfs: WCRX, OGXI ($100M), ACHN ($200M) Other Newspaper Articles & Stories Barron's positive: Honeywell (HON) Barron's WSJ cautious: Groupon (GRPN) WSJ • Pressure Rises on Fiscal Crisis WSJ • Heartland Draws Hispanics to Help Revive Small Towns WSJ • Battle Plan Shifts on Dodd-Frank WSJ • Penney Must Endure Pain Before Gain WSJ • Gilt's Flash Hunt: New Chief for IPO WSJ • Popular Wrench Fights a Chinese Rival NYT • Debt Ceiling Complicates a Tax Shift NYT • In Michigan, a Setback for Unions NYT • U.S. TV stations seek compensation in Canada Globe and Mail EFTA00402023 • China, India on track to top G7's combined economies Globe and Mail • Drug dealers, gun runners and Britain's biggest bank Telegraph • French business confidence remains at two-year low Telegraph • News International could face charges over bribery allegations Telegraph • So how will Warren Buffett's son Howard spend his fortune? Telegraph • Diageo closes in on $2bn United Spirits deal Telegraph • Alaska to collect $255m for BP pipeline leaks Telegraph • The IMF has been cut adrift Guardian • Worries grow over Britain's future as a global centre for finance Independent • Greek bailout delayed despite vote Independent • Is China starting to turn its back on bling? Independent • McDonald's posts first drop in monthly revenues in almost a decade Daily Mail • TSMC sees orders retuming for its 28nm process DigiTimes Key Events Next Week Sunday: Greece budget vote in Parliament Monday: US Bond Market & Banks Closed for Veteran's Day, Eurogroup meeting in Brussels, William Blair Healthcare Conference, Earnings (DHI, JEC, CSOD) Tuesday: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, Bofa Banking & Fin Services Conference (NYC), Barcap Auto Conference (NYC), MS Global Consumer (NYC), Earnings (HD, TJX, SKS, CSCO) Wednesday: FOMC Minutes, GS Industrials Conference (Boston), UBS Global Tech Conference (NYC), MS TMT Conference (Barcelona), Earnings (ANF, SPLS, TYC, LTD, NTAP) Thursday: Empire Manufacturing, Philadelphia Fed Survey, RBC MLP Conference (Dallas), William Blair Financial Technology Summit (Boston), Earnings (DLTR, GME, HP, ROST, TGT, VIAB, WMT, ADSK, DELL, GPS, SHLD) Friday: TIC Flows, Earnings (SJM, NTZ) EFTA00402024 Key Events on the Horizon November 19 — Eurozone FinMin meeting November 22/23 — EU Leaders Summit November 25 — Catalonia regional election in Spain Ike Groff 1680 Washington Blvd I Stamford, CT 069011 It ,Description: Description: I® This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential and intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed. If you are not the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any dissemination, distribution or copying of this e-mail and any attachment(s) is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error please immediately notify the sender at or by replying to this e-mail and delete the e-mail and any attachment(sl from your system. Nothing herein shall be construed as a financial promotion to any person or persons, or a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell any security or other investment or to engage in any trading strategy. Information presented is from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed to be accurate or complete. This information should not be taken as an offer nor as a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell securities or other financial instruments. Email transmission cannot be guaranteed to be secure, timely or error free. Tourmaline Partners, LIC may review and store both incoming and outgoing messages. Use by other than the intended recipients is prohibited. EFTA00402025