EFTA00407579.pdf

From: Ike Groff Subject: Early Tour 8.2.12 Date: Thu, 02 Aug 2012 10:23:46 +0000 Good Morning European Markets up 15-75bps Nikkei +0.13%, HSI -0.66%, China -0.57%, KOSPI -0.56%, ASX +0.16% EUR 1.2284 (+0.48%) JPY 78.26 (+0.23%) AUD 1.0520 (+0.57%) Spain 10yr 6.64% Italy 10yr 5.81% US 10yr 1.53% NED 0.8127 (+0.64%) Futures: Dow +49, Nasdaq +9, III +5 DXY $82.80 (-25c) Crude $89.34 (+43c) Gold $1608.60 (+$1.30) Silver -0.22% Copper -0.16% All about the ECB today (statement @ 7:30am, Draghi press conference @ 8.30am) (link<http://www.ecb.int/press/tvservices/webcast/html/webcast_120802.en.html>). Sueddeutsche thinks the ECB will announce a two-pronged plan to buy peripheral bonds in the secondary market (via the SMP) while the EFSF/ESM will buy bonds directly in the primary auctions. This seems to be what the market is looking for at a minimum to sustain the recent rally although some also think they could announce a combination of other significant measures including: easier collateral eligibility standards, purchases of private sector bonds, another LTRO, and/or clarifying senior/non-senior status of ECB bond purchases. It is interesting to note that despite Draghi's aggressive comments last week, a survey done by SocGen's FX team of their research client base finds that 69% of investors think the ECB will disappoint. We will find out in a few hours. European markets opened flat but have been edging slightly higher and SPA's following +5 handles = 1375.70 last. *** B0E @ 7am & ECB @ 7:45am, Jobless Claims @ 8:30am, Factory Orders @ 10am*** ***K & TWC l's pre-open / AIG, ATVI, CBS, KFT, SUN reporting after close*** First Solar profit rose 81% on revs from power plant sales (production boost) (trading +25%) Abecrombie & Fitch cut Q2 profit forecast -half after open sss -10% (trading -16%) Green Mountain stronger sales, profit +30% (margins narrowed) & better predict sales (trading -10%) Hot Topic mixed results revs light but expects to post narrower loss than thought (trading flat) United Online beats by 6c & FTD business to be spun off (two public companies) in 01 Time Warner eps/revs tops & profit beats after gaining broadband subscribers (.'s just hit tape) Ralcorp eps miss due to lingering Bloomfield plan inefficiencies (10c drag) (FY13 restructuring) earners) 2.4x) House votes to extend Bush tax-cuts for everyone (Dems want it to expire for top Spain places 03.13 billion of 2-4-10 year bonds (10yr average yield 6.647%, btc Italy's Mario Monti putting pressure on Spain to accept a formal bailout (Telegraph<http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9445456/Pressure-on-Spain-to- bow-to-bail-out.html>) Eurozone June PPI -0.5% m/m vs estimate -0.4% (+1.8% y/y versus estimate +1.9%) EFTA00407579 Adidas Q2 - inline, regional growth slight light, confirms guidance at higher end (trading -0.15%) Delta Lloyd H1 better due to cost controls, scraps interim div, selling German unit (trading -3.4%) ProSieben Q2 good, EBITDA ahead due to growth in new areas, reiterates guidance (trading -2.4%) BNP Q2 net income better, ahead on cap goals, IB weak, 10% ROE a challenge (trading +2.8%) DE Master Blenders to restate due to accounting irregularities at Brazilian operations (trading -5.7%) Beiersdorf Q2 mixed, lower growth but margins up, conference call went well (trading +4.5%) Aggreko H1 interims inline, no forecast changes, capex maintained, good run into A's (trading -1.0%) Deutsche Post Q2 underlying inline, increasing guidance, DHL restructuring on going (trading +3.7%) Continental Q2 EBIT margin ahead, revs & EBIT inline, raising guidance as expected (trading +2.7%) Sony cuts its full-year profit forecast on slowing demand and stronger JPY (after the close) Sharp cuts forecast on global economic slowdown & restructuring (will cut 5,000 jobs this year) Taiwan markets were closed today as Typhoon Saola (now downgraded to tropical storm) Australia retail sales in June matched the biggest advance since April 2011 (+1.0% m/m) Leading European Sectors: Banks +1.32%, Autos/Parts +0.86%, Oil & Gas +0.79% Lagging European Sectors: Basic Res -0.25%, Media -0.27%, Telco -0.19% WLT beats estimates - MANT guidance light - DVA earnings better D0X inline results - MET profit rises - CAVM eps beats GGP boosts forecast - ZUMZ comps missed - sss penny light YELP posts solid results - AEO guides up - TAME revs beat NLY beats by 6c - PRU eps miss/revs beat - EXTR guides lower RIG mixed numbers - LNC eps/revs top - HI revs +13% WTW cuts yr forecast - SWM stock split - SNCR guidance light CHMT misses on revs - CAR net up - RHI additional 10M shr buyback ELLI boosts forecast - CAVM earnings better - ITRI earnings better Notable Options Activity Yesterday: QCOR ($34.92 -5.3%) An investor using Wednesday's pullback to get long sold 5000 Jan 30 puts to open at $3.80. DISH ($30.56 -0.6%) A customer purchased 5000 Jan14 45 calls for $1.55. This makes 25,000 that have been bought since last Wednesday. VC ($32.69 +0.8%) September 35 calls were purchased 5000x for $1.65. The trade would create -200k to buy, or about 40% of the average daily volume. EFTA00407580 Secondaries (announced/priced): BWP, SRDX (dutch auction), SLTM IPO's (filed/priced): Eloqua (ELOQ) 8M shares priced at $11.50 Key Research: DB downgrades DRYS & upgrades RNR, Stifel initiates EXAR (buy), Bofa downgrades FMS Key Research: Piper downgrades HRC/HOTT, Baird upgrades FSLR & downgrades ANF, Citi downgrades AGP Key Research: Wells upgrades MANT & initiates MCRL (op), Bofa upgrades EA & downgrades VE, GS initiates AVGO (neut) Key Research: RBC downgrades OC, CS upgrades RAH, BMO upgrades WMGI, Macquarie upgrades LPL, Bofa cuts MGM Key Research: Longbow downgrades HOG & initiates WERN/KNX (buy's) and HTLD (neut), FBR downgrades NTLS Key Research: Macquarie downgrades BMW GR, UBS initiates PC IM (buy), Bofa downgrades MT NA Reporting Pre-Open: APA, BDX, BEAM, CAR, CI, CLX, CNP, DNR, DTV, DUK, HSIC, K, PH, PKD, PNW, PWR, RDC, SCG, SE, SEE, SNI, SRE, TDC, TWC, WPX, XEL, XYL, 6758 JP (Sony), AAWW, AB, ABMD, AGEN, ALE, AMSC, ANSS, API, ARIA, ARQL, AVD, AVEO, AYR, BBG, BCRX, BKCC, BRY, BWINB, BXC, CBOE, CIR, CKP, CNSL, CRIS, DSCO, DSX, DUSA, DW, DXYN, ELNK, ENB CN, EPL, EXH, EXP, FBN, FIG, FUR, G, GEL, GIL, GKNT, GM, GNRC, GOV, GPX, GTIV, GTLS, GWR, HAE, HBIO, HEES, HGG, HHS, HK, HOS, IDA, IIVI, INCY, INMD, IRC, IRDM, KBALB, KBW, KSWS, LEA, LINC, LLNW, LOJN, MNTA, MSCI, MTG, MVIS, MWW, NEWS, NNN, NPO, NRF, NRGY, OCN, ODFL, OGE, OMX, ORN, OZM, PKD, PMT, PQ, PRFT, PRX, PXP, RBA, RGEN, ROCK, ROIAK, RSTI, SBH, SCG, SEP, SFY, SHO, SMA, SMBL, SNAK, SNTA, SPAR, SPH, SPR, STE, STFC, TEVA, THRM, TMS, ULBI, UPL, VC, VNDA, VNR, VRX, WLK, WNR, WST, WWE, XEC, GFF, HE, MDU, STN Reporting Post-Close: AIG, AIV, ATVI, CBS, ED, EOG, FLR, KFT, PBI, PKI, PSA, SUN, SWN, ABTL, ACCL, ACLS, ACTV, ADUS, AEL, AGNC, AGU, AHS, AIRM, ANDE, AREX, ASEI, ATRC, ATSG, AWK, BAGL, BES, BIRT, BODY, CACC, CADX, CALD, CEC, CERS, CLMS, CLNY, CPIX, CPT, CRDC, CSV, CUBE, CVCO, CW, DCT, DEPO, DLB, DRC, EBS, ECPG, EGOV, EIHI, ERIE, ESC, EVC, EXAM, EXEL, FDUS, FEIC, FFG, FRP, FURX, GVA, HME, HTGC, HTSI, ICFI, IMMR, IN, JOE, KND, KOG, KRG, KTOS, LBTYA, LNKD, LPS, LVB, MAA, MAIN, MCHX, MELI, MEMS, MERC, MFLX, MHK, MOVE, MRLN, MTSC, NTSI, MTZ, MWE, MX, NAVG, NC, NCMI, NFG, NILE, NPTN, NTSP, OCLS, OCLS, OGXI, OMPI, ONNN, OPEN, ORCC, PCCC, PDLI, PEB, PKT, PMC, PRO, PTIX, RBCN, REXI, RMD, ROVI, RP, SBAC, SCOR, SD, SKUL, SMT, SQI, SRZ, SWIR, SXL, SYNA, TPCG, TST, UEIC, UTI, VCLK, VCRA, VOLC, VSAT, WRLS, XIDE, ZAGG, ZIP Economic Data: Challenger Job Cuts @ 7:30am, RBC Consumer Outlook Index @ 8am, Jobless Claims @ 8:30am, Bloomberg Consumer Comfort / ISM New York PMI @ 9:45am, Factory Orders @ 10am Conferences: BMO Biotech Corporate Access Day (SF) Analyst/Investor Days: KRA, COLM Non-Deal Roadshows: AGCO, AIXG, ALB, ALTR, AOS, ARMH, BANR, BOFI, BRCM, CLSN, CVLT, DDAIF, FFIC, HF, HRB, IART, IPHI, LCAV, NOV, NSPR, PBCT, PBYI, PFG, QGEN, R, SO, SON, SPNS, UHS, VSCI, WYN, CRUS, TFX Shareholder Meetings: CMRG, THR, SENEA, CRVL, HWKN Equity/Mixed Shelf s: N/A III 4O0 change (after close Aug-7): Jarden Corp (JAH) to replace Lincare Holdings (LNCR) 6O0 change (after close Aug-3): Dice Holdings (DHX) to replace Standard Microsystems (SMSC) Other Newspaper Articles & Stories Barron's positive: Atwood Oceanics (ATW) & Lufkin Industries (LUFK) Barron's< mod=BOL_hpp_highlight_top> EFTA00407581 Wary Fed Is Poised to Act WSJ< mod=1TP_pageone_0> The Facebook Flip: Funds Exit WSJ mod=ITP_moneyandinvesting_0> Medical Care Time Warp WSJ mod=ITP_marketplace_0> NBC Olympics: WSJ mod=ITP_marketplace_0> WSJ WSJ 1 WSJ< WSJ< Hashtag $$$ Early Weaker Euro Aids Region's Exporters Bundesbank Stresses Divide on Bond Buying Monti Pushes for ESM Banking License Euro Zone Weighs on Central Europe Chinese Banks and Solar Subsidies WSJ< mod=WSJBlog&mod=brussels> Too Big to Profit, NYT investors/?ref=todayspaper> a Hedge Fund Plans to Get Smaller ING eyes sale of Canadian, U.K. online banks Globe and Mail< business/ing-eyes-sale-of-canadian-uk-online-banks/article4457217/> Bundesbank urges ECB to keep within remit FT< dbdc-llel-aba3-00144feab49a.htmliaxzz2211ClaUdg> Italy moves moves to bridge Europe's divide FT< 11e1-86f8-00144feab49a.html#axzz22HClaUdg> Euro slips against dollar FT 00144feab49a.html#axzz2211ClaUdg> Greece agrees E11.5bn spending cuts FT 11e1-86f8-00144feab49a.html#axzz22HClaUdg> Osborne's critics need to reflect ba60-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2211ClaUdg> Next - the devil is in the detail llel-aba3-00144feab49a.html#axzz22HClaUdg> FT< FT< FT l'ex< Brace for an era of crisis aftershocks: David Rosenberg Greek FinMin to begin negotiations with troika ekathimerini< EFTA00407582 ECB preview: what Sprach can they do now? Bank bosses at odds over the euro The Times<http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/business/economics/article3495018.ece> China's industry heads for contraction The Times<http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/business/economics/article3494986.ece> Suddenly Ireland is leading the way The Times<http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/business/economics/article3494965.ece> Pressure on Spain to bow to bail-out Telegraph<http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9445456/Pressure-on-Spain-to- bow-to-bail-out.html> Competitiveness is improving but Europe urgently needs growth Telegraph<http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/jeremy-warner/9444756/Competitiveness- is-improving-but-Europe-urgently-needs-growth.html> Greece agrees to £9bn 'troika' cuts Telegraph<http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9445733/Greece-agrees-to-9bn- troika-cuts.html> What could the ECB do to save the euro? Telegraph<http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9444699/Debt-crisis-What-could- the-ECB-do-to-save-the-euro.html> Bundesbank warns over eurozone crisis as ECB prepares to meet Guardian<http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/aug/01/bundesbank-warns-over-eurozone- crisis> Jens Weidmann - the man with the key to Mario Draghi's handcuffs Guardian<http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/aug/01/jens-weidmann-mario-draghi-euro> European leaders must end 'panic mentality', says Finnish prime minister Guardian<http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/aug/01/european-leaders-panic-mentality- finnish-pm> The ECB has bought itself time, if not a stable euro Guardian<http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/nils-pratley-on-finance/2012/aug/01/ebc-bought- time-stable-euro> Can Super Mario save the eurozone? Independent save-the-eurozone-7999340.html> Key Events This Week Friday: July Employment Report, Earnings (NYX, PPL, VIAB, WPO, BPO) Key Events on the Horizon August 20 - Tentative date for ESM to become operational, C3.2 billion Greek state bond held by ECB expires August 23/24/25 - Fed's Annual Economic Policy Symposium in Jackson Hole, WY September 7 - Xstrata EGM to vote on Glencore deal September 12 - Germany's Constitutional Court ruling on ESM S, Fiscal Pact November 6 - US Presidential Election EFTA00407583 Ike Groff 1680 Washington Blvd Stamford, CT 069011 e• mailto: > (Description: Description: cid:image001.png801CBROFB.045D89F0] I• This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential and intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed. If you are not the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any dissemination, distribution or copying of this e-mail and any attachment(s) is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error please immediately notify the sender at 203-302-7300 or by replying to this e-mail and delete the e- mail and any attachment(s) from your system. Nothing herein shall be construed as a financial promotion to any person or persons, or a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell any security or other investment or to engage in any trading strategy. Information presented is from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed to be accurate or complete. This information should not be taken as an offer nor as a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell securities or other financial instruments. Email transmission cannot be guaranteed to be secure, timely or error free. Tourmaline Partners, LLC may review and store both incoming and outgoing messages. Use by other than the intended recipients is prohibited. EFTA00407584