EFTA00411369.pdf

From: Ike Groff Subject: Early Tour 6.14.12 Date Thu, 14 Jun 2012 10:12:52 +0000 Good Morning ... European Markets off 50-150 bps (Greece +6.5%) ... Nikkei -0.22%, HSI -1.15%, China -0.99%, KOSPI +0.65%, ASX -0.53% EUR 1.2560 (+0.02%) JPY 79.32 (+0.20%) Copper -0.22% US 10yr 1.61% NZD 0.7766 (+0.46%) CAD 1.0279 (+0.23%) Futures: Dow -8, Nasdaq -2, S&P -1 DXY $82.22 (+16c) Crude $82.53 (-10c) Gold $1618.50 (-90c) Spain cut 3 notches by Moody's to one level above junk with outlook still negative (Moody's also downgraded Cyprus). Spanish 10yr yield ticked up to 7.0% and currently 6.93% last (+91bps from Monday's post-bailout low). Spanish 5yr CDS +7bps to 606. ABC reports that Oliver Wyman & Roland Berger have set the capital needs for Spanish Banks at - €60-65 billion according to a draft report of the audit. Telegraph<http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9330398/Debt-crisis-Germany- signals-shift-on-2.3-trillion-redemption-fund-for-Europe.html> is running a story that Germany is warming up to the idea of a European redemption fund although not to expect any major progress at the EU summit in a few weeks. FT<http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/a732fdbe- b553-11el-ad93-00144feabdc0.html@axzzlxkOdjjE9> says France will submit a proposal for a financial stability package that would put the ECB in charge of bank supervision and allow ESM to recapitalize banks directly. Credit Suisse getting hit -8.0% after the SNB said they need a "marked increase" in capital this year to prepare for possible escalation of Eurozone risks (they also recommended UBS to boost capital = UBS trading -1.9%). In the US, S&P cash has traded in the 1310-1330 range for the last 5 days and seems to be in a holding pattern into the Greece elections this weekend and G20/FOMC next week. Volumes globally remain light (15-20% below 30day average). Italy sold max target e4.5 billion of 3-7-8 year bonds earlier (3yr average yield 5.3% vs 3.91% on May 14). European markets have been lower most of the morning and leaking in as periphery yields continue to rise. S&P futures have followed back to - unchanged on the session = 1308 last (overnight high 1315.50). ***Current Account Balance / CPI / Jobless Claims @ 8:30am*** ***Hollande & Monti meeting in Rome today*** Microsoft said to be in talks to acquire Yammer social network for businesses for - $1B Matt Cain of the SF Giants throws a perfect game (22nd in league history, first for the franchise) Premiere League rights expensive = +40% inflation vs est +15% (BSY LN -8.1%, BT/A LN -2.8%) FT<http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/fc93c0e8-b55f-llel-ab92- 00144feabdc0.html@axzzlxkOdjjE9> says BHP has trimmed medium-term commodity forecast (co. says no change since May) opex Kabel Deutschland FY inline, lighter div of E1.5/share, good guidance, elevated (trading -1.3%) Nokia warns again (devices & services), lowering op margin guidance, poor visibility (trading -10.9%) WH Smith Q3 IMS solid, high street better, strong balance sheet (trading +2.8%) Heidelberger Druck FY inline with prelims, broad outlook for 2012/13 (trading +0.40%) EFTA00411369 Unibail buys German real-estate assets worth Eurl.5bn via holding company (trading -0.11%) Mulberry (luxury handbags) FY prelims, PBT miss, notes challenging environment (trading -22.7%) Maurel & Prom says "not contacted by Shell re: takeover offer" says Reuters (trading -7.8%) Daimler trading -3.2% (rumors of a profit warning making the rounds in Frankfurt) (rumor only) Adidas trading -2.64% in sympathy with Nike weakness yesterday due to a cautious OTR note June 27 unchanged) -1.6%) Royal Dutch Shell extends 220p/share bid for Cove Energy until 1pm London time on SNB to enforce min rate of CHF 1.20 vs Euro with utmost determination (leaves rates UBS lowers Spanish GDP forecast for 2013 from -0.6% to -1.3% (2012 unchanged at Greek unemployment rate 22.6% in Q1 vs 20.7% in Q4 (youth unemployment 52.7%) Credit Suisse lowers China GDP forecasts for 2012 (8.0% to 7.7%) & 2013 (8.2% to 7.9%) India's May inflation rate at +7.55% (median forecast +7.50%) (SENSEX trading -1.3%) New Zealand keeps rates on hold at 2.5% (signals rates may stay at record low for another year) Leading European Sectors: Utilities +0.02%, Real Estate -0.10%, Food/Bev -0.11% Lagging European Sectors: Basic Resources -2.32%, Autos/Parts -2.25%, Tech -1.70% BCR $500M buyback, inc div - HOME inc buyback - TRIA pulls IPO UTX raises dividend - KFY sees eps below - CTRP $300M buyback Notable Options Activity Yesterday: IMAX (21.07 -3.1%) rolling customer from yesterday continued rolling sold june 22 calls 16k at .30 closing to buy 16k july 25 calls for .49 FB (27.27 -.5%) custs were actively buying way out of the money puts in January 20k jan 22 puts for 2.35 and 25k jan 20 put up to 1.65 ITW (54.52 -1.7%) cust bot 5k sep 47.5 puts for 1.30 most likely closing the short side of sep 47.5/55 put spread that was purchased on 5/29 for 1.75 VGK ($40.50 -1% ) (Vanguard European Stock ETF) customer sold 10k July 41c and bot 10k July 31 puts, collecting $0.70. Trade indicates near-term concern implying limited upside from here. TSCO ($84.07 -4.4%) customer bought 1750 July 80 puts and sold 3500 July 75 puts, paying a net price of $0.10 for the package. The spread is profitable with stock between $79.90 and $70.10 at expiration, with maximum payout at $75 so this investor sees more potential selling in a stock that was down 4.4% on Wednesday. Secondaries (announced/priced): RGLD (convert), AEGR, DDD EFTA00411370 IPO's (filed/priced): N/A Key Research: Key Research: Key Research: Key Research: Key Research: Jeff cuts ADBE, Citi upgrades BBY, Sterne Agee initiates BPOP (neutral), Cantor initiates IMGN (hold), GS upgrades RF (buy), JMP downgrades HGSI, DB upgrades ATI/CEDC (buy's) & downgrades ABB, Raja downgrades SAPE, Lazard initiates TSLA (buy), Davenport upgrades UDR, RBC upgrades MOG/A, UBS downgrades BBVA (sell), BNP downgrades TSM, Wells initiates XNPT (op) Reporting Pre-Open: KR, MDCI, NTSC, PIR, SCHS, SFD, WGO Reporting Post-Close: CIDM, CPST, LAKE, SYUT Economic Data: Current Account Balance / CPI / Jobless Claims @ 8:30am, Bloomberg Consumer Comfort @ 9:45am EIA natural gas storage @ 10:30am, Treasury auctions in 30-yr bonds @ 1pm ($13B) Conferences: W Blair Growth Stock (Chicago), DB Global Industrials & Basic Materials (Chicago), GS Euro Financials (Brussels) Conferences: Citi Euro Healthcare (London), JPM China (Beijing), Sidoti Microcap (NYC), CS Energy (London) Analyst/Investor Days: CIT, CNC, APA, PGR, NCI, VFC Non-Deal Roadshows: AVEO, BMC, CBT, CDNS, CIEN, CROX, CR20, CSE, CY, DLLR, EGY, EW, HOT, ICON, IMRS, INSV, IPXL, JAZZ, KNXA, LABL, LTXC, MFI, MHLD, NEE, PETS, PPG, PRGX, PVCT, QLTY, R, RTN, SIVB, STO, TTX, VPHM, VRTU, PPS Shareholder Meetings: ENG, DLPH, ACIW, ICCC, AOL, CTP, IRM, LCC, SLXP, SUMR, VNDA, ALIM, CHDN, DLTR, FCX, INAP, LMAT, LSE, MOV, OPK, SBGI, SCVL, TSYS, CBOE, CLVS, BCPC, CLR, CLWR, DSS, DUSA, GMO, REFR, SPRO, VC, KW, LNKD, MELI, NWPX, AETI, RCMT, MNOV, CYD, DATE, TBOW Equity/Mixed Shelfs: GNW, SPSC ($100M), COT ($300M), NCT, LO, CXPO ($250M) Other Newspaper Articles & Stories WSJ cautious: Netf lix (NFLX) WSJ<http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303410404577464940518408950.html> Armstrong to Face Doping Charges WSJ<http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303734204577464882123553256.html? mod=ITP_pageone_0> Large Institutions Discuss New Marketplace for Bonds WSJ<http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303410404577464580218513456.html? mod=ITP_moneyandinvesting_0> Web Video Companies Crank Up Lobbying WSJ<http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303410404577464871291061582.html? mod=ITP_marketplace_0> Greece's Rural Voters 'on a Tightrope' WSJ<http://online.wsj.com/article/SB100014240527023034442045774 Greek Bank Withdrawals Accelerate WSJ<http://online.wsj.com/article/SB100014240527023038222045774 Geithner Seeks More Euro-Zone Measures WSJ<http://online.wsj.com/article/SB100014240527023037342045774 German Central Bank Weighs Buying Australian Dollars WSJ<http://online.wsj.com/article/SB100014240527023037342045774 62662030045488.html> 64783282542366.html> 64993287673590.html> 65113835838688.html> EFTA00411371 Manchester United Said to Consider Moving Stock Sale to U.S. NYT<http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2012/06/13/manchester-united-said-to-consider-moving-stock- sale-to-u-s/?ref=todayspaper> Dollarama to introduce more products, but it will cost you Globe and Mail<http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/dollarama-to-introduce-more-products- but-it-will-cost-you/article4255044/> Afghanistan mining wealth thwarted by delays The Australian<http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/wall-street-journal/afghanistan-mining- wealth-thwarted-by-delays/story-fnay3ubk-1226395155692> France seeks eurozone stability package FT<http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a732fdbe-b553- 11el-ad93-00144feabdc0.htmliaxzzlxSZU8EmA> Greece's western ties strained by crisis FT<http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/122ac7f6- b562-11el-ad93-00144feabdc0.htmliaxzzlxSZU8EmA> Creditors stand firm on Greece bailout terms FT<http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/bf125696- 1357b-llel-b8d0-00144feabdc0.htmltaxzzlxSZU8EmA> Europe: On to a smaller canvas FT<http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/belcd592-b46b-llel- bb68-00144feabdc0.htmliaxzzlxSZU8EmA> A proposal to end Europe's debt crisis FT Opinion<http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b10257ea-b53f-llel-ab92-00144feabdc0.htmlffaxzzlxSZU8EmA> Italy pays dearly to issue one-year debt FT<http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/6b4e293a- b53b-llel-ab92-00144feabdc0.htmliaxzzlxSZU8EmA> Spanish woes mount after credit rating sinks again The Times<http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/business/economics/article3445431.ece> Greece is as good as gone from euro, investment giant warns The Times<http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/world/europe/article3445232.ece> Rioting, hunger, IOUs: a vision of Drachmageddon The Times<http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/world/europe/article3445270.ece> Chancellor to split banks' high street and City arms Telegraph<http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/9330253/Chancellor-to-split-banks-high-street- and-City-arms.html> Moody's says Spain faces being cut to 'junk' within three months: full statement Telegraph<http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9330702/Moodys-says-Spain-faces- being-cut-to-junk-within-three-months-full-statement.html> Germany signals shift on 62.3 trillion redemption fund for Europe Telegraph<http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9330398/Debt-crisis-Germany- signals-shift-on-2.3-trillion-redemption-fund-for-Europe.html> BT makes shock grab for Premier League rights Telegraph<http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/mediatechnologyandtelecoms/media/93 30417/BT-makes-shock-grab-for-Premier-League-rights.html> IMF approves C1.4bn Irish bail-out loan Telegraph<http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9330793/IMF-approves-1.4bn- Irish-bail-out-loan.html> It's time for George Osborne to come up with a Plan C Independent<http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/james-moore-its-time-for- george-osborne-to-come-up-with-a-plan-c-7845091.html> UK bank shake up to cost £7bn Daily Mail<http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/saving/article-2159104/Banking-White-paper-Banking- EFTA00411372 reforms-cost-7BN.html> Genesis Photonics aims to cut costs of LED chips for lighting DigiTimes<http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20120613PD219.html> Key Events This Week Friday: FTSE UK index series annual review & rebalance (new free float methodology) (£120B+ tracks FTSE UK indices), S&P 500/400/600 Quarterly Rebalance, Options Expiration, Empire Manufacturing, Industrial Production, Michigan Confidence Sunday: Greek Elections & French Parliamentary elections (Round 2) Key Events on the Horizon TBA (June) - Supreme Court ruling on Obama's Affordable Care Act June 17 - Greek presidential elections & French Parliamentary elections (Round 2) June 18-21 - Oliver Wyman & Roland Berger audit of Spanish banking sector complete June 18/19 - G20 leaders meet in Los Cabos, Mexico June 20 - FOMC announcement (including individual economic and interest rate projections & Bernanke press conference) June 22 - Russell Rebalance June 28/29 - EU leaders summit Ike Groff 1680 Washington Blvd Stamford, CT 069011 e• mailto: 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