EFTA00413482.pdf

From: Ike Groff Subject: Early Tour 5.9.12 Date: Wed, 09 May 2012 10:16:39 +0000 Good Morning European Markets off 35-80 bps (DAX flat, IBEX -2.6%) Nikkei Closed -1.49% (HSI -0.75%, China -1.65%, KOSPI -0.85%) EUR 1.2974 (-0.24%) JPY 79.68 (+0.18%) EUR/JPY cross 103.38 (-0.49%) AUD 1.0063 (-0.57%) Copper -1.10% Silver -2.3% US 10yr 1.82% Futures: Dow -63, Nasdaq -16, S&P -8 $1582.60 (-$21.90) DXY $80.00 (+27c) Crude $96.33 (-68c) Gold Asian markets were back in risk reduction mode today and closed in the red across the board. SHCOMP -1.65%. There was some spec floated that China's ruling communist party is considering a delay in this year's party re-shuffling due to an internal debate over the size and composition of the 9-member standing committee of the Politburo (could push the power shift out to the Nov-Jan timeframe from Sep-Oct). In Europe, Greece's Tsipras (leader of Syriza party) is meeting with leaders of ND & Pasok tonight but chances of forming a coalition are slim and the mandate will pass to Pasok's Venizelos tomorrow night. Greek press is reporting that Venizelos will refuse the mandate to form a government and that he will ask president Papoulias to call a meeting of party leaders to try and broker a national unity government or announce fresh elections. Tsipras has reportedly sent a letter to the ECB/EU saying that the election results demonstrate that the terms of the bailout can no longer apply. The Troika has also cancelled its May mission to Greece according to Sueddeutsche Zeitung. EU Commissioner Maria Damanaki has called for an emergency summit on Greece for May 16 (the day before the deadline for forming a coalition or calling fresh elections). Germany will delay a planned vote on the ESM & fiscal pact until at least mid- June (Reuters). Meanwhile, the Spanish government will demand that its country's banks raise their provisions by - e35 billion on Friday (on top of the already required es,' billion). European markets relatively stable for now despite ugly action in Spain this morning: Spanish banks down 3-4%, Spain 10yr yield +17bps to 6.01%, Spanish 10yr spreads versus Germany blowing out of recent range, Spain CDS now north of 500 bps, IBEX -2.6%. EUR 1.2974 last -0.24%. DXY +0.36% and Gold getting hit hard -$22 to $1583. Heavy on the earnings front in Europe (highlights below). S&P futures -8 handles = 1350 level. ***Mortgage Apps @ 7am, Wholesale Inventories @ 10am*** ***DF, M, ABVT, AOL ft's pre-open / ATVI, CSCO, NWSA, PCLN post close*** Disney Q2 earnings beat (profit +21%) as theme park revs countered "John Carter" bomb (trading +2%) Blue Nile rebounded from negative surprise last qtr with sales increase & positive view (trading +5%) Demand Media soared 20% on better than expected ql report as revs up & boosted 2012 outlook Glaxo to begin hostile offer for Human Genome Sciences (HGS1) at $13/share (HGSI closed $14.62) Green Mountain strips founder Robert Stiller of chairman role after stock sale to meet margin call NJ Devils beat Philadelphia Flyers (NJ in Eastern Conference finals for first time since 2003) Republican Senator from Indiana Richard Lugar defeated in primary by Tea-Party backed Richard Mourdock EFTA00413482 Intercontinental Hotels Ql beats estimates (global RevPAR +7.0%, Americas RevPAR +7.7%) (trading -0.27%) Sainsbury FY finals small beat, bottom line good, cutting its opening program (trading +1.0%) Axel Springer Ql sales and EBITDA better, driven by digital media, reit growth guidance (trading +5.3%) ITV Ql IMS better with improved outlook, pushing ahead with 5 yr transition plan (trading +2.9%) Inmarsat Ql solid with EBIT and net income strong, no change to guidance (trading +2.8%) Brenntag Ql revs and EBITDA small beat, reiterates sees FY earnings growth (trading +1.5%) Commerzbank Ql light but have improved balance sheet, cost control to exceed guidance (trading +2.2%) Henkel Ql light but have improved balance sheet, cost control to exceed guidance (trading +0.60%) Carlsberg 01 miss in traditionally weak 01, small FX adjustment, outlook maintained (trading +4.2%) Prudential Ql beat with Asia the main driver, margins inline, outlook unchanged (trading +0.70%) Glencore International Q1 inline except copper slightly below, outlook good (trading +2.4%) Weir Group upstream oil & gas weaker, guidance unchanged, short interest - 20% (trading -6.2%) Holcim Ql sales inline, net misses, cost savings announced, outlook unchanged (trading -2.0%) K&S Ql sales inline, net misses, cost savings announced, outlook unchanged (trading -0.90%) CIF EuroMortgage (French mortgage lender) trading suspended in several covered bonds pending press release Japan government to take control of TEPCO with more than 50% stake to avoid insolvency Toyota continues turnaround yr (after nat disasters) forecast profit to double to 5yr high (closed unch) Sands China net profit up 6.4% y/y fueled by record earnings at Venetian Macau (closed -2.55%) AU govt to cut spending 1st time in 42yrs as PM Gillard ends 4yrs of budget deficits (to lower rates) China Securities Regulatory Commission to accelerate QFII approvals (Shanghai Securities News) Leading European Sectors: Telco +0.28%, Trav/Les -0.13%, Chemicals -0.06% Lagging European Sectors: Real Estate -1.32%, Oil & Gas -1.02%, Utilities -1.00% MELI penny light - GCA penny better - AMEN loss worse EFTA00413483 RBCN guides eps down - FNGN eps inline - STEC sees weak q2 CQB eps misses - MED earnings mixed - SLH cuts forecast TXCC earnings light - VCI boosts buyback - SIFI stock buyback GMCR chairman removed - CUBI withdraws ipo - SPB sales beat ests Notable Options Activity Yesterday: WFC (33.15 -1%) with stock around $32.9 opening cust bought 20k june 33 puts paying up to 1.17 fairly large one time option trade in WFC HES (49.85 -1%) active bullish trading in November opening cust bought 6000 nov 52.5/57.5 call spreads for 1.60 also noted opening buyer of nov 50/55 1x2 call spread collecting .55 3500x7000 FNSR (14.58 -4.1%) starting around 1:30 custs actively began buying may 15 calls for .45 by end of day 9000 were bought for as high as .60 FNSR doesn't report until june but CSCO reports 5.9 after hours Secondaries (announced/priced): MWE, DVAX, NLY (convert), UTL IPO's (filed/priced): N/A Key Research: Citi initiates ZNGA (buys) & upgrades DMD (buy), BB&T downgrades DCO, Baird upgrades CPE Key Research: GS upgrades AIG (buy) & downgrades ACE/GNRC, Bofa upgrades JNS and MGLN (buy) Key Research: Jefferies initiates ENPH (buy) & downgrades CQB, CS initiates PSX (op) & reinstates COP (newt) Key Research: JPM resumes SSCC (ow) & downgrades FOSL, Think initiates QIHU (buy) and YOKU/CTRP (hold) Key Research: MS upgrades DOW/STJ/AFFX, UBS downgrades ADI/MRVL & initiates UA (buy) Key Research: Sterne Agee upgrades EZPW, Multiple brokers initiates GLOG, BMO upgrades SMG/PKY/ARNA Reporting Pre-Open: DF, M, TEVA, ABVT, AEZS, AGU, AH, AMRI, AOL, ARIA, ASFI, AXAS, BIOC, BWEN, CGX, CV, ➢TG, ELOS, EMIS, EPM, ES, EZCH, FCN, FLL, FXCM, HDNG, HII, HYGS, IHG, INXN, KDN, KELYA, KRO, LACO, LSE, MFB, MNTG, MPEL, NICE, OFI, PMFG, PRIM, PSDV, RTLX, SCR, SODA, SPB, SSYS, STON, SUSS, AVNT, TRR, TTI, TVL, VIAS, WAC, WD, XIN, T CN Reporting Post-Close: APFC, AUQ, AVCA, BKEP, CXPO, CYTX, DAC, DGIT, HILL, HLYS, HOGS, HTHT, MKL, MKTG, MNKD, MTEX, RWC, SATC, SCLN, SCMP, VRTU, WFR, WR, XPO ATVI, BMC, CSCO, CTL, MNST, NWSA, PCLN, ACHN, AIQ, ALEX, ALTE, AMSF, BLTI, BPZ, BWC, CCRN, CHDX, CJES, CLCT, CODI, CPA, CPNO, CUZ, CVO, DNN, ECPG, EGLE, ELON, ENV, ESE, EVEP, FLT, FTK, GAIA, GCOM, GSS, GST, III, IL, INSP, INTL, IPAR, JOBS, LORL, LUNA, LXU, LYV, MALL, MIM, MYRG, NNI, NP, NWK, OREX, OXGN, PANL, PODD, PRCP, PRSC, QTM, QUAD, SF, SGI, SGMS, SRSL, STAN, STRL, SUX, SVN, TACT, TELK, TSLA, UNTK, Economic Data: MBA Mortgage Applications @ lam, Wholesale Inventories @ 10am Treasury auctions in 10-yr notes @ 1pm ($24B) Fed Speakers: Kocherlakota @ 10am (Minneapolis), Pianalto @ 10:45am (Lexington, KY), Plosser @ 12pm (Philadelphia) Conferences: DB Healthcare (Boston), Jeff TMT (NYC), Bofa Global Tech (SF), DA Davidson Financial Services (Seattle) Conferences: Wells Industrial & Construction (NYC), Baird Growth Stock (Chicago) Analyst/Investor Days: CNO, TLM, WU, SLE, ACFN Non-Deal Roadshows: ATML, AUMN, AXTI, CCMP, CHKP, CLWR, ESS, FTE, GLUU, GPI, ININ, KEX, LLL, MHK, MIPS, MXIM, NEE, NSPH, NVTL, PCOM, QLIK, RECV, RS, SCAN, SMCI, SO, STO, TCK, TMS, TXN, WRE, XOM, XMI EFTA00413484 Shareholder Meetings: PPO, SIFI, WMGI, AEC, KGC, NEWS, NIHD, PQ, KELYA, KMP, KMR, MUR, SPF, STRN, DYAX, JWN, BLMT, MCOX AGO, AN, DNB, FRF, GEN, OPTR, PAG, KWR, CMT, HSP, KNL, NC, PM, POL, ARRS, RAC, BRE, BKCC, BKU, CMP, COP, CTGX, EXAM, FISI, FTR, HYGS, IDXX, SCI, USG, WRC, TCI, XLS, BRKL, COHU, CSX, CVA, CYNO, EPR, GLDD, GPIC, WAT, GUID, CWEI, LSI, WIN, ESC, FSCI, KCG, MCI, MERU, TBI, ENB, PACW, MXWL, RCKY, SPWR, USBI, PHC, PJC, CPA, NSYS, PHM, LBAI, OVBC, PDS, Equity/Mixed Shelfs: FRT, ELS Other Newspaper Articles fi Stories Barron's positive: Covidien (COV) Barron's<http://online.barrons.com/article/SB500014240531119O437OO045773923O2567118584.html> WSJ cautious: Morgan Stanley (MS) WSJ<http://online.wsj.com/article/SB100O1424O5270230363O404577392192467590680.html> Cameron Coalition to Stress Growth in Queen's Speech WSJ<http://online.wsj.com/article/5610001424052702304451104577392093966658140.html> Ireland Faces Referendum Uncertainty WSJ<http://online.wsj.com/article/5610001424052702304363104577391922343389232.html> Peltz's Trian to Take Stake in Ingersoll WSJ<http://online.wsj.com/article/5610001424052702303630404577392541762371220.html? mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTTopStories> Bomb Plotter Was U.S. Informer WSJ<http://online.wsj.com/article/S11100O1424O52702304451104577392O21996463672.html? mod=ITP_pageone_0> Connecticut Schools Deal Sets Overhaul WSJ<http://online.wsj.com/article/S11100O1424O5270230445110457739256425O794468.html? mod=ITP_newyork_0> Builder Is Constructing REIT for Home Rentals WSJ<http://online.wsj.com/article/SB100O1424O52702304451104577392383812726556.html? mod=ITP_moneyandinvesting_0> Few Options if Europe Turns Away From Austerity NYT<http://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/O9/business/global/if-europe-turns-away-from-austerity- who-will-foot-the-bill.html> Green Mountain Replaces Chairman After Margin Call NYT DealBook<http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2012/05/O8/green-mountain-replaces-chairman-after- margin-call/?ref=todayspaper> `Canadian condo craze' gets crazier Globe and Mail<http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/canadian-condo-craze-gets- crazier/article2426997/> Alberta fires back at proposed EU fuel rules Globe and Mail<http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/industry-news/energy-and- resources/alberta-fires-back-at-proposed-eu-fuel-rules/article2426675/> Greek left attacks `barbarous' austerity FT<http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/bd6fda08- 9923-11e1-9a57-O0144feabdc0.html#azzzluFoJECeG> Greek-led fall points to euro exit worries FT<http://www.ft.com/cms/s/O/8fe50176- 990f-11e1-9da3-O0144feabdc0.htmliazzzluFoJECeG> Asian shares pressured by Greece fears FT<http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/089bf816-97e6- 11e1-83f3-O0144feabdc0.html8azzzluFoJECeG> EFTA00413485 Hollande at odds with key partners on structural reform FT<http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/53f19eb6-990c-11e1-9da3-00144feabdc0.htmlftaxzzluFoJECeG> Doubts spread to Spain's big banks FT<http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/7a382258-9933-11e1- 9a57-00144feabdc0.htmliaxzzluFoJECeG> Bankia: Madrid looks to reform FT: Lex<http://www.ft.com/cms/s/3/d7d67128-98ff- 11e1-948a-00144feabdc0.html#axzzluFoJECeG> Barroso pushes EU growth measures FT<http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/94b5716c-9915-11e1- 9da3-00144feabdc0.html#axzzluFoJECeG> Germany reports strong rebound FT<http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/17ffd62e-98fe-11e1- 9da3-00144feabdc0.htmliaxzzluFoJECeG> U.K. Retail Sales Drop Most in More Than a Year Bloomberg<http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-08/u-k-retail-sales-drop-most-in-more-than-a- year-brc-says.html> Regulation is holding back recovery, says Bank's former deputy The Times<http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/business/economics/article3408596.ece> More than £25bn wiped off UK's biggest companies Telegraph<http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9253235/More-than-25bn-wiped- off-UKs-biggest-companies-as-Greece-and-France-spook-investors.html> World's richest man bets on European recovery Telegraph<http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/mediatechnologyandtelecoms/telecoms /9252901/Worlds-richest-man-Carlos-Slim-buys-third-of-Hollands-biggest-phone-company-Royal- KPN.html> HSBC welcomes Hollande's first steps - but with caution Independent<http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/hsbc-welcomes-hollandes-first- steps--but-with-caution-7723324.html> PartyGaming needs a winning hand Independent<http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/james-moore-partygaming-needs- a-winning-hand-7723330.html> MPC could boost quantitative easing Guardian<http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/economics-blog/2012/may/08/mpc-could-boost- quantitative-easing> Eurozone crisis: EU moves to loosen grip of austerity Guardian<http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/may/08/eurozone-crisis-austerity-greece-alexis- tsipras> George Osborne's growth policy is turning British cities into Detroit UK Guardian<http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/may/08/osborne-growth-detroit-uk- double-dip> Yahoo Director in Charge of Botched CEO Vetting to Step Down From Board All Things D<http://allthingsd.com/20120508/exclusive-yahoo-director-in-charge-of-botched-ceo-vetting- to-step-down-from-board/> Key Events This Week Thursday: Treasury Monthly Budget Statement, Trade Balance, BOE rate decision, Spanish PM to announce important financial measures, China CPI/PPI (9:30pm), Houlihan Lokey Global Industrials Conference (NYC), Earnings (AGO, KSS, WIN, CA, ESRX, NUAN) Friday: PPI, U of Michigan Confidence, China retail sales & industrial production, EU Commission publishes its spring economic forecast for 2012-13, Earnings (NVDA) EFTA00413486 Ike Groff 680 Washin ton Blvd Stamford, CT 06901 e• I• (Description: 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