EFTA00414089.pdf

From: Ike Groff Subject: Early Tour 5.3.12 Date: Thu, 03 May 2012 10:16:24 +0000 Good Morning European Markets up 40-100 bps (IBEX +1.5%, CAC +1.3%) Nikkei closed today (HSI -0.28%, China +0.07%, KOSPI -0.20%) EUR 1.3133 (-0.20%) JPY 80.37 (-0.29%) AUD 1.0289 (-0.42%) Copper -0.77% Silver -0.59% US 10yr 1.93% NZD 0.8029 (-0.97%) Futures: Dow +13, Nasdaq +5, III +2 DXY $79.27 (+14c) Crude $104.79 (-44c) Gold $1645.70 (-$8.30) ECB rate announcement this morning & Draghi press conference afterwards (meeting is being held in Barcelona vs the usual Frankfurt). No changes are expected but, given the recent deterioration in economic data focus will be on the Draghi press conference and whether he leans toward an easing bias for June. Spain sold 02.52 billion in 3-5 year debt vs e2.5 billion max target (first auction since the III downgrade last week). France sold 07.43 billion in 5-9-10-13 year bonds vs C7.5 billion max target. Sarkozy and Hollande traded shots last evening in a - 3 hour live tv debate (consensus seems to be that Hollande faired well and Sarkozy failed to deliver any big blows that would dent Hollande's significant lead in the polls). SocGen +1.2% after beating estimates but the other French banks fail to participate (BNP & Credit Agricole trading flat). Green Mountain (-39%) & Weight Watchers (-16%) the two big blow-ups after the US close last night. More details emerging about the release of Chen Guangcheng from the US embassy in Beijing seem to suggest that he did not leave voluntarily but b/c of a threat to his family from China authorities. Mr. Chen has apparently now appealed directly to Obama via CNN to help get him and his family out (BBC<http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-17933640>) and reportedly wants to leave on Hillary Clinton's plane at the end of the week. Hillary Clinton & Tim Geithner are in China today for economic and security talks but these are now being overshadowed by the Chen situation. On the data front, weekly jobless claims in the US will be in focus after yesterday's weak ADP and tomorrows NFP. European markets bid up after the US recovered off the lows yesterday afternoon. Volumes thinning out as we await the ECB. III futures - flat 1399.30 last. ***ECB rate decision @ 7:45am (Draghi press conference @ 8:30am)**** ***Retail comps today, Jobless Claims @ 8:30am, ISM Non-Manufacturing @ 10am*** ***VIAB, MGM report pre-open / AIG, FSLR, KFT, LNKD 4's after close*** Green Mountain cut profit forecast on slowing sales (more private label competition) (trading -39%) JDS Uniphase posted Q3 net loss (reversing year ago profit) as revs fell due to late orders (trading -4%) Visa Q2 eps/revs beat estimates & boosts yr eps growth view from Feb 8 outlook (trading +2%) Acme Packet Ql net income dropped sharply hurt by higher op expenses but revs beat (trading +10%) Whole Foods net income climbed 31% (64c vs 59c ests) & raised FY earnings forecast (trading +2.5%) Weight Watchers qtly profit missed estimates citing challenges in core meetings biz (trading -16%) Kensey Nash (KNSY) agrees to be acquired by DSM for $38.50/share in cash = 32.7% premium EFTA00414089 Carlyle prices 30.5 million share IPO @ $22 versus lowered $22-$23 range (raises $671 million) EU FinMins fail to reach agreement on bank capital rules (will try to resolve and meet again May 15) SocGen Q1 solid largely due to FICC revs in CIB, had a "very decent" April (trading +1.2%) Clariant Q1 EBIT and net below, outlook confirmed, expects improvement in H2 (trading +3.0%) Antofagasta Q1 production below estimates , problems at Esperanza mine (trading -4.1%) Infineon Q2 numbers look strong, raising H2 and FY guidance (trading -2.6%) BMW Q1 good, FCF better, outlook for automobile division unchanged (trading +3.5%) Transocean Q1 profit fell y/y but beat as maintenance costs rose less than expected Metro Q1 EBIT and net below as price competition grows , FY guidance unchanged (trading +0.70%) Delhaize Q1 sales inline, EBIT miss, guiding FY EBIT down 15-20% (trading -12.5%) France Telecom 01 in line, cautious on outlook for 2012, sees recovery in 2013 (trading +2.3%) Lufthansa 01 prelims worse but FY outlook unchanged, cutting 3,500 admin jobs (trading ) Randgold Ql production weaker, costs contained, committed to FY guidance (trading +0.22%) Hannover Re Q1 ahead driven by investment income, April renewals seen positive (trading +3.9%) Smith & Nephew 01 sales inline, EPS and EBIT ahead, guidance unchanged (trading +3.4%) BG Group in line with no surprises, confirms COMGAS stake sale (trading -3.2%) HeidelbergCement Q1 miss driven by developed markets, no change in outlook (trading -3.5%) Morrisons 01 sales broadly in line, outlook remains challenging (trading -0.60%) Fresenius and Fresenius Medical Q1's in line with pre announcement last week (trading +1.7%) PagesJaunes Q1 sales inline with estimates, net misses, confirms outlook (trading +0.30%) MAN SE Q1 in line with prelims, reiterates forecast for lower sales in 2012 (trading +0.20%) Hermes Ql sales better in most divisions, little on outlook, to pursue long term strategy (trading -2.8%) Finmeccanica revs in line, EBITDA slight below, management reiterate targets (trading -3.4%) UK PMI Services comes in weaker than expected at 53.3 versus estimate 54.1 (GBP -0.17%) EFTA00414090 company each) Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan says Turkey may not recognize III as a ratings Singapore's Temasek trims its stake in CCB and BOC by a total of $2.5bn ($1.25bn China services PMI came in lighter at 56.1 in April (down from a 10-month high in Mar of 58) Leading European Sectors: Autos/Parts +1.38%, Banks +1.1%, Telco +1.09% Lagging European Sectors: Retail +0.32%, Tech +0.33%, Oil & Gas +0.48% ATML $200M buyback - PPO earnings better - NVTL guides down WLT profit misses - HOTT comps/eps beat - CBEY ebidta better CVA revenues improve - DWA ql revs beat - ONXX loss misses/revs beat ZUMZ comps up - ONNN eps/revs beat - RNWK rev forecast worse LNC higher realized losses - SSS #'s better - NLY eps beats ests GDI boosts buyback - SKUL sales beat targets - HIG core eps/revs beat NVS $1.525B acquisition - SAM tops estimates - 2 revs double EXTR reaffirms guidance - EDMC #'s better, view light - YELP wider loss GLUU boosts forecast - ALL largest profit since 2007 - VCLK cuts forecast SWM eps inline - SHO solid beat - PMCS accelerated $160M buyback COST comps light - SSI april comps better - CI earnings light Secondaries (announced/priced): NMM IPO's (filed/priced): EverBank (EVER) 19.2M shares priced at $10, Carlyle Group (CG) 30.5M shares priced at $22, Pacific Coast Oil Trust (ROYT) 18.5M units priced at $20 Key Research: Bofa downgrades VC, SunTrust downgrades GMCR, CLSA upgrades AB, Needham downgrades SMSC Key Research: Imperial initiates SPB (op), Piper downgrades GMCR, Baird downgrades DVA, CS upgrades CRM & cuts CACI Key Research: JPM upgrades TTMI (ow), KBW downgrades BBNK & upgrades CHCO, GS upgrades ALL, BMO cuts NVTL Key Research: Opco upgrades TWTC, HSBC upgrades SSL, Raja initiates PSX (mp), RBC upgrades HCC, Citi cuts CPSI Key Research: BGB initiates AMTD/EFTC/SCHW (sell's), Jeff initiates QIHU (neut), JPM upgrades TTMI Key Research: Bernstein upgrades CHK, Lazard downgrades HRS, Scotiabank initiates KR (sp), Pac Crest upgrades ONNN Reporting Pre-Open: AMT, ANR, APA, ARG, BEAM, CAH, CI, CNP, CVC, DNR, EP, GOLD, NRG, PGN, PNW, PWR, SCG, SEE, SLE, SNI, SRE, TDC, VIAB, WPX, XYL, AAWW, ACIW, ACM, ACOR, ANSS, ARQL, ATK, ATRC, AVD, AVEO, AYR, BBG, BBW, BCE, BKCC, BTN, BWINB, BXC, CAMT, CCOI, CHSI, CIR, CKP, CNSL, COCO, CRWN, CTCM, CWH, CXW, DBLE, DGE LN, DSCO, DSX, DW, EPB, EPL, ESV, EXH, EXLP, FBN, FIG, FLWS, FLY, FSIN, FSYS, FUN, FUR, GIL, GKNT, GM, GPX, GTIV, H, HBIO, HEES, HNT, HOS, ICGE, IDA, INMD, IPCC, IRC, IRDM, IT, ITG, JRCC, KBALB, KNSY, KSWS, LAMR, LCUT, LFUS, LINC, LPS, LQDT, LVLT, LXRX, MCGC, MD, MEA, MGAM, MGM, MMS, MNTA, MWIV, NGLS, NJR, NPO, NRF, OCN, OGE, OMG, ORN, OWW, PMT, POL, POR, PQ, PRFT, PXP, QLTI, RAS, RDEN, RGLD, RMTI, ROCK, ROIAK, RSTI, RTI, SBH, SFY, SHOO, SMA, SMBL, SNAK, SNMX, SNTA, SPH, SPR, STFC, SXCI, TMS, TOWR, TRGP, ULBI, UPL, USPH, VAC, VRX, WNR, WWE, XEC, BZ, WTR Reporting Post-Close: AIG, AIV, CF, CFN, FLR, FSLR, KFT, PSA, SWN, ABTL, ACCL, ACET, ACLS, ACTV, ADUS, AFFX, ARS, AIRM, ALC, ALJ, ALNY, ANIK, ANTH, AREX, ARI, BAGL, BCOV, BEBE, BIRT, BKH, BLKB, BODY, CADX, CBB, CBM, CBOU, CEC, CPIX, CUBE, DLB, DOLE, DRC, DRIV, DRRX, EBS, EGO, EIHI, ENOC, ERIE, ESC, EXAR, EXEL, EXM, FACE, FALC, FFG, FSR, FURX, GSIT, GUID, GXP, HAIN, HAYN, HCCI, HEK, HME, HTSI, IMMR, INWK, IRF, JCOM, KOG, KRG, KTOS, LF, LLNW, LNKD, LTRX, LVB, MAA, MAIN, MANT, MCHX, MERC, MFLX, MGRC, MHK, MOVE, MTSC, MTW, MTZ, NAVG, NCMI, NFG, NGSX, NPSP, NPTN, NTSP, OEH, OGXI, OMEX, OMPI, OPLK, OTT, PCCC, PDFS, PDLI, PDM, PEGA, POWI, POWR, PWAV, PWER, QLGC, QPSA, REXI, ROVI, RP, SAAS, SALM, SAPE, SCIL, SD, SEM, SLTC, SPRD, SPWR, SQI, SQNM, SWIR, TESO, TNH, TRGT, TRMB, TST, UEIC, UIL, USMO, WRC, WRLS, ZAGG, ZIGO EFTA00414091 Economic Data: Challenger Job Cuts @ 7:30am, RBC Consumer Outlook Index @ 8am, Nonfarm Productivity / Unit Labor Costs / Jobless Claims @ 8:30am, Bloomberg Consumer Comfort @ 9:45am, ISM Non-Manufacturing @ 10am Fed Speakers: Williams @ llam (Santa Barbara, CA), Lockhart @ 1pm (CA), Plosser @ 1:30pm (Santa Barbara, CA) Conferences: Barcap Chemical ROC Stars (NYC) Analyst/Investor Days: JBL, TXN Non-Deal Roadshows: ALE, AWI, BLDR, BRO, CODE, CRS, CYS, DFS, DGI, DYAX, ECYT, EXLS, FXEN, GD, HF, LCC, MCK, PH, PPC, SO, SREV, TBBK, WPPGY Shareholder Meetings: ASTM, KNXA, SPW, UPS, AXS, AVP, ERIC, HUN, RAI, SCG, VCI, BCE, EFX, STJ, TSO, ACC, ALG, BMS, DTE, DUK, FLR, HCCI, HCN, HOT, KMB, KOP, MBTF, SLRC, WAC, XBKS, HXL, SUN, ANV, BPO, CAD, ECL, HALO, HNBC, KONA, KSU, MFC, VLO, WEC, ZEUS, EMN, VZ, HLS, SWFT, DTV, DOV, IVR, PSA, ACY, OSTK, RLI, SATS, ALC, GTXI, PLD, NHI, WBCO Equity/Mixed Shelf s: N/A Other Newspaper Articles & Stories Barron's positive: Kirby Corp (KEX) Barron's< WSJ cautious: WSJ< Chesapeake WSJ< WSJ positive: WSJ< WSJ< KIT Digital (KITD) News Corp.'s Puzzle: 'Fit and Proper' Treasury Doesn't Sound a New Note WSJ< mod=ITP_moneyandinvesting_0> South Pacific Fund Has Sinking Feeling WSJ< mod=ITP_moneyandinvesting_0> Bank Chiefs' Regulatory Concerns Met With Official Silence WSJ< mod=ITP_moneyandinvesting_0> Canada Eyes New Oil Market WSJ mod=ITP_moneyandinvesting_3> Hawker Nearing Chapter 11 WSJ mod=ITP_marketplace_0> Viacom's SpongeBob Crisis WSJ mod=ITP_marketplace_0> European Regulators May Reopen Street View Inquiries NYT view-inquiries.html> EFTA00414092 Progress Is Seen in Advancing a Final Volcker Rule NYT< rule/?ref=todayspaper> Alberta steps up battle to shed `dirty oil' image Globe and Mail< resources/alberta-steps-up-battle-to-shed-dirty-oil-image/article2420766/> Unemployment tests eurozone austerity 946b-llel-bbOd-00144feab49a.htmliaxzzltmdbc9U5> drive FT< Jobless rise adds to eurozone concerns FT< llel-bbOd-00144feab49a.htmliaxzzltmdbc9U5> Eurozone voters query closer integration FT< 946d-11e1-8e90-00144feab49a.htmliaxzzltmdbc905> Candidates eye state sell-offs as fiscal remedy Infrastructure projects face funding gap FT< 9457-11el-bbOd-00144feab49a.htmltaxzzltmdbc9U5> UBS: proceed with care FT: Lex 00144feab49a.htmliaxzzltmdbc9U5> Demand takes off for Euro airlines Independent<http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/demand-takes-off-for-euro- airlines-7707558.html> Bank failed over crunch, admits King The Times<http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/business/industries/banking/article3403088.ece> Chancellor rejects Europe's 'idiotic' banking deal The Times<http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/business/industries/banking/article3403339.ece> Tesco tries to tempt savers with new bond The Times<http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/business/industries/banking/article3402936.ece> Unfair division of the jobless misery but some rays of hope Independent<http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/hamish-mcrae/hamish-mcrae- unfair-division-of-the-jobless-misery-but-some-rays-of-hope-7707563.html> Wetherspoon founder says taxes will hit pub plans Guardian<http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/may/02/wetherspoon-taxes-poor-areas> The banks that like to say 'no' Guardian<http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/economics-blog/2012/may/02/banks-busineses- credit-drought-lending> Banks slash lending to firms by £100bn Daily Mail<http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2138672/Banks-slash-lending-firms-100billion- experts-accuse-sucking-lifeblood-business.html> Key Events This Week Friday: US April Labor Report, Earnings (DUK, AON, POM, WPO, BRK.A) Sunday: Greek elections, French elections (second round) Ike Groff 1680 Washington Blvd Stamford, CT 069011 • (203) 302-7300 I• mailto: EFTA00414093 (Description: Description: cid:image001.png@OlCRBOFB.045D89F0) This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential and intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed. 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