EFTA00414284.pdf

From: Ike Groff Subject: Early Tour 5.2.12 Date: Wed, 02 May 2012 10:19:56 +0000 Good Morning ... European Markets mixed (CAC +0.80%, Spain -2.3%, Italy -1.5%) ... Nikkei Closed +0.31% (HSI +1.02%, China +1.76%, KOSPI +0.86%) EUR 1.3145 (-0.69%) JPY 80.30 (-0.26%) AUD 1.0329 (-0.05%) Copper -1.04% Silver -0.53% US 10yr 1.94% CHF 0.9143 (-0.71%) Futures: Dow -13, Nasdaq -4, S&P -2 DXY $79.22 (+40c) Crude $105.77 (-39c) Gold $1654.40 (-$8.00) SHCOMP closes +1.78% after the nation's two stock exchanges said they will cut A-share transaction fees by 25% effective June 1 to attract investors. China's HSBC Manufacturing PMI comes in at 49.3 vs the flash reading of 49.1 last Monday. Official PMI readings out in Europe this morning as well and clearly on the weaker side highlighting a widening gap versus the US: France 46.9 (47.3 est), Germany 46.2 (46.3 est), Spain 43.5 (43.6 est), Italy 43.8 (47.1 est), Swiss 46.9 (est 51.5), Greece 40.7 (est 41.3), Norway 53.7 (57.0 est), Sweden 50.2 (est 50.5), Russia 52.9 (50.8 prior). European markets re-opened higher from holiday playing catch-up to the US & UK moves yesterday but rolled over led by the periphery (Spain -2.1%, Italy -1.6%) following the much weaker Italian PMI (new orders component dropped to 39.2 in April from 45.7 in March). Spanish PMI clocked in at its lowest level since June 2009. Spanish 10yr spreads over Germany tightened to 405 bps early this morning but have widened back out to 416 post the PMI's (a break below 400 bps would be seen positively). France's far-right leader Marine le Pen says she will not endorse either Sarkozy or Hollande and will cast a blank ballot on Sunday. EU FinMins meet today to discuss capital requirements. ECB tomorrow. ADP Employment @ 8:15am this morning ahead of labor report Friday. III futures were higher overnight but have dipped slightly into the red now = 1398.90 last. ***Mortgage Apps @ 7am, ADP Employment @ 8:15am, Factory Orders @ 10am*** ***CMCSA, CVS, ICE, MA, TWX #'s pre-open / EXPD, GMCR, HIG, JDSU, V, APKT after close*** Ascena Retail to buy Charming Shoppes for $890M = $7.35/shr (ASNA trading +7.5%) (WSJ reports) TripAdvisor surges +20% after reporting Qlsales/profit that beat ests on strong ad/subscription revs Broadcom profit falls 61% on higher expenses but beat (sees rev midpoint above ests) (trading -1%) OpenTable profit rose slightly but weak yr sales forecast ($158M-$164M vs $168.5M ests) (trading -15%) True Religion beat eps/net sales, initiates 20c qtrly div & approved $30M buyback (trading +14%) Fisery Ql eps beat / profit rose 18% y/y as revs up & margins improved amid expanding client base WebMD swung to 01 loss as ad & sponsorship revs came in weaker (reiterated FY revenue view) CBS Corp revs & income rose by double digits y/y beating ests on digital & overseas sales (trading +2%) Chesapeake Energy loss narrows but misses (strips CEO McClendon of Chairman & halts incentives) EFTA00414284 Open Text buys EasyLink Services (ESIC) for $310M ($7.25/share = 14% premium to yest close) Facebook's IPO roadshow will begin on May 7 and shares should begin trading on May 18 (Reuters) UBS investment banking ok on FICC & cost controls, wealth management beats (trading +5.5%) Standard Chartered numbers look inline, HSD income growth (less than previous 10% target) (trading -2.9%) BSkyB reports solid #'s, operating profit in the first nine months +20% on broadband clients (trading +1.9%) the year Swisscom Q1 profit fell less than analysts expected and it reiterates forecast for (trading +2.9%) Playtech Q1 trading statement out, strong core casino performance (trading +2.4%) TNT Express Ql results look inline, challenging in Europe, UPS timetable on plan (trading +0.07%) Lundbeck (Nordic region drugmaker) profit misses estimates on Lexapro patent expiry (trading -1.2%) BAE statement looks inline, sees little sales growth this yr, pays £200 million into pension (trading -0.74%) Bolivia seizes unit of Spanish power company Red Electrica (REE SM trading -3.0%) Millicom trading -2.7% in sympathy to the Bolivia news above (company gets 9% of EV from Bolivia) JD Wetherspoon (UK pub operator) Q3 sales ok but continues to be cautious on outlook (trading -0.07%) Vestas Wind Systems (wind turbines) posts lower than forecast sales in Ql (trading -10.0%) Next 01 trading statement looks inline with forecasts, no change to FY guidance (trading +2.2%) Home Retail suspends dividned and says it remains cautious on consumer spending (trading -9.8%) Sky Deutschland will not sell German Bundesliga soccer rights according to an article in Die Welt Canada's Jim Flaherty blasts Europe for failing to fix its debt crisis (will not give more funds to IMF) French April new car registrations -1.6% on the year (UG FP trading +2.1%, RNO FP trading -1.0%) German unemployment unexpectedly rose in April as crisis flared (19k versus estimate -10k) Italy unemployment rate jumps to 9.8% in March vs consensus of 9.4% (youth unemployment 35.9%) Chen Guancheng has left the US embassy (now in Beijing medical facility and re- united with family) EFTA00414285 Wynn Macau (1128 HK) gets land grant approval for casino resort on the Cotai strip Macau gaming revenues for April rose 21.9% YoY to 25b1n patacas (inline with estimates) Taiwan to postpone electricity price increases by about a month (will take June 10 vs May 15) India manufacturing growth holds near a three-month low (PMI 54.9 versus March) effect 54.7 in April HSBC manufacturing PMI's: South Korea 51.9 versus 52.0 prior, Taiwan versus 54.1 prior China's big 4 state-run banks issued CNY 101.7 billion in new Yuan loans 25 days of April -3.0% 51.2 in first Hon Hai opened limit down again but managed to rally on good volume and only closed ANZ Bank (Australia's 3rd largest bank) HI profit +10% on higher overseas income (closed -0.79%) Leading European Sectors: Chemicals +1.05%, Media +0.74%, Construction +0.72% Lagging European Sectors: Utilities -0.86%, Telco -0.69%, Fin Services -0.41% PEET eps/profit miss - ANAD loss wider - RGC earnings better CAVM eps/revs beat - CBOE market shr increase - FLEX lowers view MMI loss widens - RBCN cuts eps forecast - BGFV earnings light TWTC stronger internet revs - XCO loss but tops - D0X lowers rev growth FORM it's better - KNXA eps/revs better - SIMG initiates $50M buyback NTRI eps miss - RLOC clean beat & raise - OKE ql eps miss, profit down CALX penny better - BEE eps inline - GNW l's miss, CEO resigns RATE eps/revs miss view - RPXC l's mixed - DEST partnership BBBY OCZ better sales outlook - MHGC revs light - CHMT sales up PZZA boosts yr forecast - EVER amended SI - DLPH registers shrs CRM buys Stypi - EPD profit rises - GGP boosts ffo view midpt Notable Options Activity Yesterday: NWSA ($19.79 +0.9%) customer bought 10,000 January 20-14 put spreads for $1.6125 and bought 285,000 shares for $19.72 SE ($31.51 +2.5%) significant amount of call activity as traders are playing a big up in the stock price over the next few weeks. 12,000 of the June 33 calls were purchased from $0.15 up to $0.60 and 4500 June 31 calls traded from $0.65 to $1.30 over the course of an hour and half late in the morning. GNW ($6.15 +2.3%) 10,000 June 5-4 were purchased for $0.10. Trade implies a 10% chance stock is below $4.50 in the nest 6 weeks. Secondaries (announced/priced): TRS, IGTE (holders), MX IPO's: N/A Key Research: Imperial initiates SAVE/NMM/ALGT (op's), RBC upgrades Key Research: CRT initiates HII (buy) and MRCY/LLL/RTN/AVAV (fairly GD/LMT/NOC/IRBT (sell's) Key Research: Wunderlich downgrades UBNT, Sterne Agee initiates ANF WWW Key Research: PSX (neut) Key Research: MAS, Canaccord cuts PLX valued) and (neut), Jeff upgrades Piper initiates VIPS (ow), Bofa downgrades COP/AIZ & upgrades TRI & initiates CS upgrades IHG LN (global hotel note), BMO downgrades KSU/PSB, Citi upgrades EFTA00414286 STM Key Research: Macquarie upgrades CKEC, MS downgrades RSH, Wells upgrades EW & downgrades HPY Key Research: CRT upgrades ACI (buy), DB downgrades AXS, Bernstein downgrades VMED Reporting Pre-Open: AGN, BEN, CBE, CLX, CMCSA, CVS, DVN, GRMN, ICE, MA, PCG, PEG, RDC, RRD, TWX, MRO, AB, ABX, AGP, ALE, ASCA, AVA, BSY LN, BZH, CBE, CEVA, CKSW, CLH, CLMT, COT, CPK, CPLP, CTB, DWSN, EDGR, EDGW, EE, ENR, EPD, FELE, GTN, GTS, HSC, HSNI, IACI, LDL, MAC, MMP, MSCI, MSO, MTOR, NEWS, NMRX, NVMI, OIIM, OZM, PKD, PNX, RELY, SBGI, SEIC, SKYW, SMED, SPW, SRZ, TRK, UBS, USAT, VC, VG, VICL, VNR, VSH, WXS, BCPC Reporting Post-Close: ALL, EIX, EXPD, GMCR, HIG, JDSU, KIM, LNC, MUR, NU, PRU, PXD, SUN, TEG, TSO, V, WFM, ABCO, ADEP, AEL, AGNC, AIN, APKT, ARTC, ASI, ATML, ATNI, ATO, AVNW, AWH, AWK, AXTI, BKD, BLDP, BSAC, CACC, CACI, CALD, CBEY, CENT, CLNY, CLR, CNQR, CRL, CSU, CVD, CVGI, CXO, CXW, DCT, DHT, DK, DWA, DX, DXCM, EDMC, ENH, ENSG, EQY, ERII, EROC, ESS, EXBD, EXL, EXLS, EXTR, EXXI, FMD, FRP, G, GERN, GGC, GLF, GLUU, GMXR, GNCMA, GROW, HGR, HNSN, HPOL, HTZ, HXM, ICFI, IPI, IRIS, ISIG, ISNS, JBT, JDSU, KS, LGCY, LGND, LHCG, LMAT, MASI, MDAS, MDCA, MHLD, MIC, MMLP, MOSY, MXL, NATL, NBIX, NC, NCIT, NEWP, NKTR, NRP, NSIT, NVEC, NVTL, OMCL, OME, ONNN, ONXX, OSUR, PGTI, PLNR, PMC, PNNT, PPO, PSE, PVA, REG, RIG, RLH, RNR, RNWK, RRTS, SAM, SCOR, SDBT, SGK, SGMO, SHO, SHS, SKUL, SM, SMSI, SPRT, SSS, STAA, SWM, SXL, SYNM, TCAP, TESS, TFSL, TGI, TPGI, TTEK, UDRL, UNTD, VCLK, VOLC, WC, WEBM, WES, WGL, WLT, WTW, XNPT, 2 Economic Data: MBA Mortgage Applications @ 7am, ADP Employment Change @ 8:15am, ISM New York 9:45am, Factory Orders @ 10am Treasury quarterly refunding announcement @ 10am, DOE crude oil inventories @ 10:30am Fed Speakers: Tarullo @ 8am (NYC), Lacker @ 12:30pm (Richmond), Fed's Evans @ 6:30pm (Chicago) Conferences: RBC Global Financial Institutions (Boston) Analyst/Investor Days: MKTG Non-Deal Roadshows: BLDR, CALL, CLD, CODE, CTIC, DFS, DYAX, ECL, ECYT, FXEN, GPN, GTLS, HF, HUM, IPCI, LCC, MSI, PLCM, RF, RTN, SGYP, SILC, SREV, TSEM, TWI, XOMA, XRX, INFY, DOW Shareholder Meetings: VR, PODD, TCAP, TX, CLNY, CPK, GD, PEP, POOL, RGR, RNB, TREX, UFS, ATR, ATRO, BWLD, FRT, INPH, KMPR, LUFK, OAS, SHLD, ZIP, WWWW, AUY, BMTC, CPO, MAN, MTRN, NPO, TE, USAK, HEYS, FDP, AEIS, FTI, UNT, DOVR, FLL, HII, MOH, CIR, CSL, HES, DISH, DLX, PLOW, SASR, TLAB, EOG, STWD, EXPD Equity/Mixed Shelfs: SLTM ($75M), TEU ($500M), GCI Other Newspaper Articles & Stories Barron's positive: Barron's mod=BOL_hpp_h ighl ight_top> WSJ cautious: Ebay (EBAY) WSJ< WSJ< mod=ITP_moneyandinvesting_6> Watson Pharmaceutical (WPI) The Big Doubt WSJ mod=ITP_marketplace_0> Over Facebook Advertising Lockheed's Next CEO Says U.S. Cuts WSJ mod=ITP_marketplace_0> Will Spur Mergers , BP (BP) Pitfalls on Road to IPO Riches EFTA00414287 WSJ mod=ITP_moneyandinvesting_0> Debit Fees Flow for Smaller Banks WSJ mod=ITP_moneyandinvesting_1> RIM Offers Peek at Its Next Phone WSJ mod=ITP_marketplace_0> China's Vanishing Trade Imbalance NYT Mortgage Aid Programs Were Halted, Papers Show NYT papers-show.html> European NYT for-banks.html> Leaders to Weigh New Capital Requirements for Banks Furor Over Executive Pay Is Not the Revolt It Appears to Be NYT DealBook it-appears-to-be/> Former Bank of Canada governor breaks rank with successor over consumer debt Globe and Mail< rank-with-successor-over-consumer-debt/article2419843/> Ford starting third Detroit News' starting-third-shift-Cleveland-plant-keep-up-EcoBoost-engine-demand> shift at Cleveland plant to keep up with EcoBoost engine demand Slump in manufacturing signals deeper recession Guardian<http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/may/02/eurozone-crisis-canada-europe-greek- elections> Iron Maiden singer sets up aircraft firm Guardian<http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/may/01/iron-maiden-bruce-dickinson-aircraft> Rupert Murdoch's Fox broadcast licences targeted by US ethics group Guardian<http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2012/may/01/rupert-murdoch-fox-licences-us> Home Retail Group rules out 'en-masse' Argos store closures Telegraph<http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/retailandconsumer/9240439/Home- Retail-Group-rules-out-en-masse-Argos-store-closures.html> Bolivian President Evo Morales seizes assets from Spanish energy company Telegraph<http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/9239793/Bolivian-President- Evo-Morales-seizes-assets-from-Spanish-energy-company-Red-Electrica.html> BAE cautious over Saudi deal and defence cutbacks Telegraph<http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/defence/9240458/BAE-cautious-over-Saudi- deal-and-defence-cutbacks.html> • Google Wins $35 Million U.S. Government Contract TechCrunch over-microsoft/> The story behind BrightSource's ditched story-behind-brightsources-ditched-ipo/> Over IPO GigaOM Microsoft Key Events This Week EFTA00414288 Thursday: Challenger Job Cuts, ECB rate decision, Hillary Clinton & Tim Geithner in China, Earnings (AMT, APA, ARG, BEAM, CI, NRG, PGN, VIAB, AIG, KFT) Friday: US April Labor Report, Earnings (DUK, AON, POM, WPO, BRK.A) Sunday: Greek elections, French elections (second round) Ike Groff 1680 Washington Blvd Stamford, CT 069011 • mailto: (Description: Description: cid:image001.png801CBB0FB.045D89F0] I• This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential and intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed. If you are not the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any dissemination, distribution or copying of this e-mail and any attachment(s) is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error please immediately notify the sender at or by replying to this e-mail and delete the e- mail and any attachment(s) from your system. Nothing herein shall be construed as a financial promotion to any person or persons, or a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell any security or other investment or to engage in any trading strategy. Information presented is from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed to be accurate or complete. This information should not be taken as an offer nor as a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell securities or other financial instruments. Email transmission cannot be guaranteed to be secure, timely or error free. Tourmaline Partners, LLC may review and store both incoming and outgoing messages. Use by other than the intended recipients is prohibited. EFTA00414289