EFTA00414887.pdf

From: Ike Groff Subject: Early Tour 4.23.12 Date: Mon, 23 Apr 2012 10:17:13 +0000 Good Morning European Markets off 1.5%-2.5% (Spain -2.85%) Nikkei Closed -0.20% (HSI -1.84%, China -0.76%, KOSPI -0.10%) EUR 1.3153 (-0.24%) JPY 81.00 (+0.71%) EUR/JPY cross 106.53 (-0.94%) NZD 0.8121 (-0.79%) Copper -1.77% US 10yr 1.926% Futures: Dow -115, Nasdaq -22, S&P -13 Gold $1634.50 (-$8.30) Silver -1.21% DXY $79.41 (+22c) Crude $103.14 (-73c) Europe getting hit hard today on heightened political uncertainty and generally weaker macro data across the board. Socialist Francois Hollande edges out Nicolas Sarkozy in Round 1 of the French elections as expected (28.5% to 27.1%), while the far-right National Front's Marine Le Pen took third with a record high 18.2% of the vote. Hollande & Sarkozy will now go head-to-head in a Round 2 run-off on May 6 with Hollande still holding a commanding lead in opinion polls (Sarkozy will need to convert a large % of Le Pen supporters to have a chance). Meanwhile, the Dutch government failed to agree on budget cuts over the weekend and an emergency cabinet meeting has been called for today where PM Mark Rutte may step down and announce snap elections. HSBC's April China flash PMI comes in at 49.1 which represents the 6th straight month of contraction, although an improvement from 48.3 in March. Economic data in Europe coming in weaker this morning (Eurozone flash PMI 46.0 vs 48.1 est, Germany flash PMI 46.3 vs 49.0 est = fastest rate of contraction since July 2009, France flash PMI 47.3 vs 47.4 est, Italy April consumer confidence 89.0 vs 96.2 est = lowest since data began in 1996). Spanish 10yr testing the 6.0% level again. NYT<http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/23/business/global/agreement-on-a-global-firewall-but- little-beyond-that.html? pagewanted=1&_r=l&ftcamp=crm/email/2012423/nbe/AlphavilleLondon/product&partner=rss&emc=rss> notes that although the IMF firewall now stands at €430 billion after the meetings this weekend, global finance ministers remain divided over the roadmap from here. Jon Hilsenrath of the WSJ<http://professional.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304331204577356033094716816.html? mg=reno-secaucus-wsj> says the Fed will stand pat on Wednesday as their overall growth outlook is unlikely to have changed much from January (the economy has not broke significantly either way to justify signaling an early rise to rates or QE3). S&P futures -13 handles = 1362.20 last. ***CHKP, EAT report pre-open / NFLX, TXN #'s after close*** Pfizer announces deal to divest infant nutrition business to Nestle for $11.85B cash (high end) premium) (Reuters) AstraZeneca to acquire Ardea Biosciences (RDEA) for $1 billion ($32/share = 53.5% Amylin Pharmaceuticals said to be exploring a sale (hires CS & GS as advisers) Wal-Mart probe of possibly bribery in Mexico may prompt exec departures and fines (Bloomberg) Philips Q1 strong with solid top line driven by healthcare, remains cautious for 2012 (trading +4.7%) billion) Vodafone agrees to buy Cable & Wireless for 38p/share (closed Friday at 32p) (£1.04 Aviva set to pull out of US in a move that could lose the UK insurer £1 billion EFTA00414887 says the Sunday Times Greene King Q4 better, strong momentum maintained, positive on summer of events (trading -0.50%) +0.79%) Gemalto wins order from America Movil, Banamex and Banco Inbursa in Mexico (trading Stagecoach IMS inline with UK and North America showing decent top line growth (trading -0.80%) Pou Sheng (3813 HK) -18% after profit warning (key retailer of Nike & Adidas goods in China) Leading European Sectors: Food/Bev -0.75%, Healthcare -0.77%, Teclo -0.93% Lagging European Sectors: Banks -3.05%, Insurance -2.96%, Construction -2.73% UPS $1.3B contract - ENH $700M credit facility - HLX beats BEAV tops ests - PJC to cut 3% workforce - JAKK self tender Notable Options Activity Yesterday: NFLX ($106.10 -1%) customer bought 10,000 of the $105-$85 weekly put spreads that expire next week for $6.35. Earnings are 4/23 SYY ($29.02 -1.8%) 10,000 SYY May 29 puts were bought for $0.50, with earnings due out 5/7 JNJ ($63.72 +1.1%) customer bought 10,000 July 67.5-70 call spreads for $0.17 RIMM (13.34 -1.0%) opening cust bought 20k june 13 puts for .95 earnings june expiration day HOG (51.70 +4.3%) stock and call options went crazy last 2 hours of day attributed to commentary that industry data released early and is better than expected notable may 55 and 60 call buyers 6k and 1500 respectively earnings expected 4.25 Secondaries (announced/priced): N/A IPO's: N/A Key Research: Key Research: ABVT Key Research: (ow) Key Research: BMC Key Research: Barcap upgrades HTWR/AZN LN & downgrades NOVOB DC, BMO downgrades CHSI JPM upgrades ARM LN & initiates PPG (ow), RBC initiates IPHI (op) & downgrades MS upgrades GLE FP & initiates FFIV (ow) and FDS (ew), Piper initiates VCRA Roth reinstates CYTR/PTN (buys), Baird downgrades FWRD, Susquehanna upgrades Bofa upgrades RY (buy), Citi downgrades PGR Reporting Pre-Open: CHKP, COP, DHI, ETN, HAS, ROP, STI, XRX, BEAV, BOH, EAT, FCBC, HLX, KNL, MTG, NVIS, OFG, PCH, SAH, SILC, STBA, STRM, TNC, TSH, WASH, WCBO, WWW, BSRR Reporting Post-Close: AMP, NFLX, TXN, ZION, AFOP, ALGN, ALSN, BANR, BBCN, BXS, CR, CTGX, DEL, ETH, FFIN, FIBK, FNS, HMA, HSTM, HTLF, HXL, IEX, ILMN, JJSF, NBTB, OMI, RCII, SANM, SFG, STM, TRST, TUES, UCTT, USTR, YDNT Economic Data: No major releases. Speakers: ECB's Weidmann @ 6pm (NYC) Conferences: No major conferences. Analyst/Investor Days: N/A EFTA00414888 Non-Deal Roadshows: N/A Shareholder Meetings: ACU, CCG, JRCC, NEPH, STBA, HON, MWV, DLR, PRK, FBHS, FBMI Equity/Mixed Shelfs: N/A Other Newspaper Articles & Stories Barron's cover: Barron's Big Money poll finds majority of asset managers bullish on stocks and optimistic for the economy Barron's<http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424053111903835404577350101292481634.html> Barron's cautious: Francesca's Holdings (FRAN) Barron's<http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424053111903835404577348202146910304.html> Barron's positive: Devon Energy (DVN) Barron's<http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424053111903835404577347830537850596.html>, LSI (LSI) Barron's<http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424053111903835404577347831717949966.html> Barron's interview: NYSE Euronext CEO Duncan Niederauer Barron's<http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424053111903835404577348180818113536.html> WSJ cautious: Safeway (SWY) Barron's<http://online.wsj.com/article/S810001424052702304331204577356210545503368.html? mod=ITP_moneyandinvesting_5> Spain Steps Up Argentina Pressure WSJ<http://online.wsj.com/article/S810001424052702303978104577359980046021686.html> BOE: A Very Model of Dismal Forecasting WSJ<http://online.wsj.com/article/S810001424052702303592404577359804154239074.html> Small Banks Get a Freer Hand WSJ<http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304331204577351780448668826.html? mod=ITP_moneyandinvesting_0> Private Equity Dives Into Water Parks WSJ<http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303978104577360083380773676.html? mod=ITP_moneyandinvesting_0> Detroit Hopes Smaller Cars Can Give it More Horsepower WSJ<http://online.wsj.com/article/S810001424052702304331204577356291882139250.html? mod=ITP_moneyandinvesting_5> Critics of E-Books Lawsuit Miss the Mark WSJ<http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303978104577359741232993860.html? mod=ITP_marketplace_0> Start-Up Aims to Stream Pay TV Onto Web Devices NYT<http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/23/business/media/nimbletv-aims-to-stream-tv-on- devices.html> Climate Change to Affect Corn Prices, Study Says NYT<http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/23/business/climate-change-effect-seen-for-corn- prices.html> Waste Management looks for R&D venture partners Globe and Mail<http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/waste-management-looks-for-rd-venture- partners/article2410382/> U.S. tariffs on Chinese solar cells fuel debate about green jobs LA Times<http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-solar-jobs-20120423,0,3951568.story> IMF secures $430bn to boost firepower FT<http://www.ft.com/cms/s/O/d4b3cc18-8b10- 11el-bc84-00144feab49a.htmltaxzzlsq5uLlicX> EFTA00414889 Hollande and Sarkozy progress to final round of France's elections Sarkozy seeks to `preserve our way of life' FT<http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/496f2d5a- 8cb9-11e1-9758-00144feab49a.htmltaxzzlsq5uLHcX> Dutch try to reassure Brussels on budget plans FT<http://www.ft.com/cros/s/0/dd2a6222-8c72-11e1-9758-00144feab49a.html#axzzlsg5ULHcX> Low rates fuel early debt repayments FT<http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/493531f6-8b09- 11el-bc84-00144feab49a.htmlitaxzzlsq5uLHcX> China and Germany to forge closer ties FT<http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/20b68c7c-8a0d- 11e1-87f0-00144feab49a.htmliaxzzlsq5uLHcX> Economic outlook: QE outcomes awaited FT<http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/14737lee-8af0- 11el-b855-00144feab49a.htmltaxzzlsq5uLHcX> George Osborne tries to end speculation over next Bank of England governor Guardian<http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/apr/23/george-osborne-bank-england-governor> Eurozone crisis set to get worse before it gets better Guardian<http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/economics-blog/2012/apr/22/eurozone-crisis-to- get-worse> If the euro were to split, which way would the French connection go? Telegraph<http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/rogerbootle/9219537/If-the-euro-were-to- split-which-way-would-the-French-connection-go.html> GIP to snap up Edinburgh airport in £850m deal Telegraph<http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/transport/9219769/GIP-to-snap-up- Edinburgh-airport-in-850m-deal.html> Record quarter for dividends after Vodafone and Cairn pay out Independent<http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/record-quarter-for-dividends- after-vodafone-and-cairn-pay-out-7669062.html> UK teeters on brink of new recession Independent<http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/uk-teeters-on-brink-of-new- recession-7668078.html> Anger as Osborne gives IMF extra £10bn Times<http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article3391025.ece> Results mean improved taste for takeover Times<http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/business/industries/consumer/article3391767.ece> Austerity is no answer Times: Economic view<http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/business/columnists/article3391732.ece> Samsung steps up outsourcing of TV production to Taiwan makers DigiTimes<http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20120423PD205.html> Key Events This Week Tuesday: GOP Primaries (CT, Rhode Island, Delaware, NY & PA), S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Index, Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, Barcap Retail and Restaurant Conference (NYC), Earnings (ALXN, APD, BHI, COH, HSY, MMM, R, T, WU, X, AAPL, BIDU, JNPR) Wednesday: FOMC Rate decision (Bernanke press conference after), NZ cash rate, Earnings (BA, CAT, GLW, GD, DPS, HST, LO, S, SAP GR, CTXS) Thursday: Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index, Pending Home Sales, Kansas City Manufacturing, Japan CPI & IP, Earnings (amy, CCE, CL, DOW, HOT, K, LMT, SWY, UPS, WM, AMZN, SBUX, ZNGA) Friday: GDP, U of Michigan Confidence, Employment Cost Index, BoJ meets to discuss EFTA00414890 additional asset purchases, Earnings (CVX, COV, NEM, VFC, PG) Ike Groff 1680 Washington Blvd Stamford, CT 069011 • mailto: > (Description: Description: cid:image001.png801CBROFB.045D89F0) I• This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential and intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed. 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