EFTA00418136.pdf

From: Ike Groff Subject: Early Tour 3.13.12 Date: Tue, 13 Mar 2012 10:12:56 +0000 Good Morning European Markets up 75-130 bps Nikkei Closed +0.09% (HSI +0.97%, China +0.86%, KOSPI +1.13%) EUR 1.3140 (-0.11%) JPY 82.66 (-0.25%) Copper +1.32% US 10yr 2.044% NZD .8220 (+0.49%) AUD 1.0539 (+0.21%) Futures: Dow +74, Nasdaq +16, S&P +8 DXY $79.92 (+3c) Crude $106.93 (+59c) Gold $1699.70 (-10c) Silver +0.66% FOMC statement this afternoon (no big changes expected to message and no Bernanke press conference afterwards but he will be speaking tomorrow morning at 9am in Nashville). Merkel & Monti meeting today @ 12pm EST followed by a news conference. The Fed released its "worst- case scenario" criteria for bank stress tests yesterday which include 13% unemployment, 50% drop in stocks, 21% decline in housing prices and a significant contraction of other major global economies. The most recent stress test results will be published on Thursday after the close. Yesterday was the lowest volume day of the year in the US with only 5.2 billion shares on the tape (cannot find a lower non-holiday related day in last 4 years). VIX closed 15.64 = lowest level since July 2011. European indices opened higher and now on the highs of the session following a much better German ZEW (volumes better than yesterday but still < 90% of 3-month average). S&P futures +8 handles = 1375 last. ***Retail Sales @ 8:30am, Business Inv @ 10am, FOMC rate decision @ 2:15pm *** ***Barclays Healthcare (FL) & JPM Transports/Defense (NYC) Conferences*** ***TOD IM reports 12pm GMT, Alabama & Mississippi primaries today (polls tight)*** Germany ZEW March investor confidence rises to 22.3 vs est 10.0 (highest since June 2010) BOJ keeps rates & asset purchase target unchanged (sets up 1T Yen program for USD loans) Urban Outfitters misses on weaker gm's, full-price sales gaining & inventories ok (trading +5%) Manpower says that its Q2 employment index climbed to 10% (highest level since late 2008) Obama approval rating has slipped to 41 in the latest New York Times/CBS News poll (NYT<http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/13/us/politics/obama-approval-rating-down-in-new-york- times-cbs-poll.html?_r=3&hp>) Sarkozy edges ahead of Holland in latest opinion poll of French election (positive for financials) Net earnings per share revisions for next year turn positive after 41 weeks of downgrades (FT<http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/30894398-6c70-11el-bd0c-00144feab49a.html? ftcamp=published_links/rss/markets/feed//product4axzzlot9pyQbh>) Prudential op profit/div slightly ahead, Asia top earnings region for 1st time (trading +1.7%) Standard Life FY good with IFRS op profit ahead, sees margin improvement H1(trading -0.34%) Munich Re ft's inline with prelims, div and guidance in line, +ve outlook 2012 (trading +2.6%) EFTA00418136 some) -3.5%) +1.3%) Asia million BMW says pretax profit will probably beat 2011's E7.38B (ebit margin may disappoint Antofagasta FY inline, div disappoints, sees copper production FY12 +10% (trading Weir Group withdraws from bidding for Ludowici, will make no further offer (trading Swatch sales may rise by - 10% in 2012 amid strong demand out of North America & Audi is said to be in talks to buy Italian luxury motorcycle maker Ducati for E850 European governments prod Spain to make deeper budget cuts in test of stiffer deficit rules France's inflation rate fell for 2nd month in Feb as slowing economy outweighs higher energy US is preparing to push a case against China involving rare earths before the WTO (WSJ<http://professional.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304450004577278132260314666.html? mod=WSJPRO_hpp_LEFTTopStories>) Militants attack Afghan government delegation visiting site where US soldier killed civilians 25% crisis") steady) pause stagnates) Macau gaming best performing group in Asia on DB report that gaming revs may rise Victor Vekselberg resigns as chairman of Rusal (says the company is facing a "deep NZ house sales record strongest Feb sales volumes since 2008 (+37% y/y) (prices Australia Feb business confidence slumped to 5 month low on FX strength & rate Australia Jan home loans fell 2x pace forecast (first drop in 10months) (employment Leading European Sectors: Banks +2.03%, Basic Res +1.71%, Construction +1.40% Lagging European Sectors: Autos/Parts +0.50%, Healthcare +0.55%, Oil & Gas +0.83% CME ceo to retire - NLS turns profit - CKEC swings to profit IPAR profit falls higher costs - COOL blow out revs - GNC pos view ENPH amended S1 - CPRT 2-for-1 split - IGT/LTO.IM partnership Notable Options Activity Yesterday: GPS (25.09 +.4%) rolling cust sells 5000 june 25 calls at 1.55 closing to buy 5000 april 26/28 call spreads for .45 opening not only is cust staying bullish but looking for move above 26 by april expiration (4/21) AH (23.94 unchd) opening cust buys 2500 june 30 calls for .60 these are notably out of the money with the customer needing 28% higher for breakeven earnings 5.11 Secondaries (announced/priced): XPO, SB, MDVN ($175M), MWE, SLXP ($500M convert), TNGO IPO's: N/A EFTA00418137 Key Research: Bernstein upgrades SAP, DB downgrades CVC & upgrades SNI (buy), Baird upgrades VOC Key Research: Barcap initiates OIS (ow), Equinet upgrades S92 GR, Key initiates CVA (buy), W Blair initiates COV (op) Key Research: Bernstein upgrades SAP & downgrades CSX, RBC upgrades AIV, Wells cuts BAH/MANT Key Research: BMO upgrades HSFT & initiates CRIS (op), GS downgrades CSOD & adds ACE to Conviction Buy List Key Research: Citi downgrades ISAT LN (sell) & initiates MTDR (neut) and IPCM (buy), HSBC downgrades GLE FP Key Research: Janney upgrades NWY (buy), Kepler initiates Prada (hold), Stifel initiates ETN/IEX (buy's) and CIR (hold) Reporting Pre-Open: AAON, ADES, BKR, BWEN, EBIX, EF, FDS, INSM, LDL, RAVN, REX, SYPR, TLP, UTSI, VIP, XRIT Reporting Post-Close: ANAC, BALMS, BKEP, BMTI, CXPO, EVOL, FALC, FRAN, GWAY, HOGS, INFI, MED, OXGN, PNSN, PSUN, SCLN, SCMP, STEM, STRI, VISN, VOG, XRM Economic Data: NFIB Small Business Index @ 7:30am, ICSC-GS Chain Store Sales @ 7:45am, Retail Sales @ 8:30am, Redbook Chain Store @ 8:55am, Business Inventories @ 10am, FOMC Rate decision 00 2:15pm Treasury auctions in 10yr notes @ 1pm ($21B), API crude oil inventories @ 4 Conferences: Barclays Global Healthcare (Miami), JPM Transports & Defense Services (AZ) Conferences: Roth Growth Stock (CA), Citi Global Property CEO (Palm Beach) Internet Connect (NYC) Analyst/Investor Days: DAN, PETD, APC, CVX, END, EPL :30pm (NYC), CS Global , Barclays Non-Deal Roadshows: ACTV, AGYS, ATRC, AVAV, AVID, AVNW, BCE, BR, BRCD, CALL, CRNT, CSCO, DTLK, EZCH, HTHT, INTC, ISIL, KS, MGRC, MIND, MIPS, MLNX, MT, PAY, POWI, PRGN, RATE, RDWR, SGEN, SIMO, SNI, SO, THR, USPH, VELT, WD, XLNX Shareholder Meetings: COV, ADI, DFG, DIS, APFC Equity/Mixed Shelf s: FBR, AVP Other Newspaper Articles & Stories Barron's positive: Oracle (ORCL) Barron's<http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424053111904797004577277472651971922.html? mod=BOL_hpp_h ighl ight_top> WSJ cautious: Michael Kors Holdings (KORS) WSJ<http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303717304577277850699287354.html> Apple Accuses Proview of Misleading WSJ<http://online.wsj.com/article/S1110001424052702304537904577278523672404582.html? ru=MKTW&mod=MKTW> At Sprint, Directors Watch CEO Closely WSJ<http://online.wsj.com/article/S1110001424052702303717304577277764239257808.html> Ireland presses debt restructuring now Greek deal is out of the way WSJ<http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304537904577277490028880460.html> Le Credit Crunch Isn't Over Just Yet WSJ<http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304537904577277361689024988.html? mod=ITP_moneyandinvesting_0> The Ultraluxury-SUV Pitch WSJ<http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204603004577267512502658628.html? EFTA00418138 mod=ITP_marketplace_0> Faulty Wells, Not Fracking, Blamed for Water Pollution WSJ<http://online.wsj.com/article/S1110001424052702304537904577277814040731688.html? mod=ITP_pageone_0> MF Global Customers Said to Get Offers for Their Claims NYT DealBook<http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2012/03/12/mf-global-customers-said-to-get-offers-for- their-claims/?ref=business> Solyndra Is Blamed as Clean-Energy Loan Program Stalls NYT<http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/13/business/energy-environment/stalled-clean-energy-loan- program-feels-solyndras-chill.html?ref=todayspaper> White House Outlines Plan to Help With Job Search NYT<http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/13/business/white-house-outlines-plan-to-help-job- seekers.html?ref=todayspaper> How Mulally was courted to lead Ford Detroit News<http://www.detroitnews.com/article/20120313/AUTO0102/203130367/1148/AUTO01/How-Mulally- courted-lead-Ford> Viterra bid may need Canadian component Globe and Mail<http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/viterra-bid-may-need-canadian- component/article2366636/> Police raid home of France's richest woman AP<http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/E/EU_FRANCE_HEIRESS_AFFAIR? SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2012-03-12-16-16-31> The US labour market is still a shambles FT<http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/22e87a10-6c34-11e1-8c9d-00144feab49a.htmlfaxzzlot9pyQbh> SEC set to file charges over private trading FT<http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/bfa42d96-6c92-11el-bd0c-00144feab49a.htmlftaxzzlot9pyQbh> China hints at halt to renminbi rise FT<http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/972b0948- 6c33-11el-b00f-00144feab49a.htmliaxzzlot9pyQbh> Sarkozy has lead for first time in new poll after populist speech FT<http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/14O316dc-6ca9-11el-bd0c-00144feab49a.htmlftaxzzlosmq6Ucr> German law firm opens the door with class action suit against banks and Greek State FT<http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/79ed422c-6c67-11el-bd0c-00144feab49a.htmlfaxzzlosmq6Ucr> Spain pressed to reduce 2012 budget by 0.5%, with new target of 5.3% FT<http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b66be660-6c65-11el-bd0c-00144feab49a.html#axzzlosmq6Ucr> LTRO's were ill-designed making it probable that the ECB will have to discontinue them FT<http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/6b850158-6c34-11e1-8c9d-00144feab49a.htmlfaxzzlosmq6Ucr> Few winners in the Greek debt saga FT<http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d29f7edc-6c51-11e1- b00f-00144feab49a.htmltaxzzlosmq6Ucr> The Greek debt drama has merely paused for an interval (El-Erian op-ed) FT<http://blogs.ft.com/the-a-list/2012/03/13/the-greek-debt-drama-has-merely-been-paused-for- an-interval/?ftcamp=crm/emai1/2012313/nbe/ExclusiveComment/productiaxzzloz2KqlwX> Network rail branded "fictional" private sector company Independent<http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/spending-watchdog-hits-out-at- network-rail-7563370.html> Lockheed jet deal to create thousands of jobs in the UK Guardian<http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/mar/12/lockheed-jet-fighter-thousands-uk- jobs> EFTA00418139 Charterhouse eyes up £lbn sale of Wood Mackenzie Telegraph<http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/9139538/Charterhous e-eyes-up-lbn-sale-of-Wood-Mackenzie.html> Diageo cheers over Beam talk Daily Mail<http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/markets/article-2114104/MARKET-REPORT-Diageo-cheers- Beam-talk.html> Head of UK's Treasury Select Committee calls for Greek euro exit Telegraph<http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9139702/Greece-should-exit-the- euro-says-Treasury-Select-Committee-chairman-Andrew-Tyrie.html> Apple likely to adopt slim bezel displays for 7.85-inch iPads DigiTimes<http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20120312PD205.html> DRAM contract prices to rise 5-10% in March DigiTimes<http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20120312PD213.html> Key Events This Week Wednesday: Bernanke speaks in Nashville (9am), Import Price Index, US Current Account Balance, Japan Industrial Production, Thursday: Empire Manufacturing, PPI, Philly Fed Friday: CPI, Industrial Production, Michigan Confidence Ike Groff 680 Washin ton Bl • (203) 302-7300 l• mailto (Description: Description: cid:image001.png801CBROFB.045D89F0] This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential and intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed. 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