EFTA00419539.pdf

From: Ike Groff <MI > Subject: Early Tour 2.17.12 Date: Fri, 17 Feb 2012 11:16:05 +0000 Good Morning European Markets up 30-90 bps (Greece +3.5%) Nikkei Closed +1.58% (HSI +1.01%, China +0.01%, KOSPI +1.30%) EUR 1.3147 (+0.12%) JPY 79.08 (-0.19%) NZD .8372 (+0.50%) AUD 1.0766 (+0.10%) Copper +0.20% Silver +0.52% US 10yr 1.99% Futures: Dow +5, Nasdaq -3, S&P -1 $1733.10 (+$4.70) DXY $79.32 (-Sc) Crude $102.75 (+44c) Gold Angela Merkel cancelled her trip to Rome to meet with Mario Monti today & German President Wulff announced his resignation this morning (as expected) after being accused of accepting improper benefits. Everyone now waiting on the Eurogroup meeting on Monday to see how the Greece situation will play out. There will be an advanced meeting on Sunday evening & the official meeting will take place in Brussels on Monday at 4pm local time (3pm GMT) so headlines most likely not out until after the close in Europe (U.S. is closed for holiday). Still plenty of moving parts but it has been reported that officials are likely to finalize the package on Monday although the FT<http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/b38ee8c6-58c8-11el-b118- 00144feabdc0.htmltaxzzlmdCe3vmr> notes that it would still include a list of 24 "prior actions" that Greece must complete by the end of the month before aid is released. Bloomberg<http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-16/ecb-said-to-swap-greek-bonds-for-new-debt- to-avoid-loss-from-restructuring.html> says that the ECB will exchange its Greek bonds for new ones that would be exempt from CACs and ensure that it does not take losses in a restructuring which would pave the way for a private-sector swap (and Greece will submit legislation to Parliament on Tuesday to allow CACs to be retrofitted and the PSI offer will start on Wednesday). Options expiration today. Europe higher playing catch-up to US move yesterday in very quiet trading. S&P futures flat. ***Options Expiration today, CPI @ 8:30am, Leading Indicators @ 10am*** ***Congress starts vote on payroll tax cut extension @ 1pm *** ***CPB & IINZ report pre-open, China Property Prices tonight*** +6.0%) +1.0%) -1.5%) light) +20%) Applied Materials profit forecast beats estimates (20c-28c vs 16c ests) (trading Baidu good l's with upbeat outlook (strong growth in China mobile search) (trading Nordstrom guides FY lower amid rising costs ($3.30-$3.45 vs $3.60 ests) (trading Leap Wireless narrower than expected loss as smartphone sales increase (revenues Sun Power beats ests & 2012 sales guidance inline with previous forecast (trading UBS said to tell regulators a group of traders and brokers manipulated yen Libor rate (WSJ<http://professional.wsj.com/article/S1510001424052970204059804577227452963906044.html? mod=WSJPRO_hpp_LEFTTopStories>) David Cameron travels to Paris for talks with Nicolas Sarkozy to close landmark nuclear deal Greek culture minister resigns after robbers seize items at antiquities museum in EFTA00419539 Olympia An Ikea near Chieti, Italy said to have received more than 30,000 applications for 200 jobs U.K. January retail sales rise 0.9% versus median forecast +0.3% led by household goods Telnet Q4 sales slight better & FY outlook top end of range, esom buyback (trading +2.2%) Lafarge Q4 surprise loss, more disposals, doubles cost cutting to reduce debt (trading +6.9%) Air Liquide inline Y's, saw slowdown in Q4, seeks growth in 2012, div misses (trading -2.3%) Aegon inline & reits FY at lower end, Dutch market solid, confirms financial targets (+6.3%) Frontline Q4 mixed with EBITDA better but VLCC rates below at -5% (trading +0.64%) +1.0%) near-term) Anglo American FY Low quality beat due to lower tax and interest costs (trading ANZ Bank Q1 profit +4.1% (credit growth unlikely to return to pre-crisis levels NZ Reserve Bank's Bollard says country's economic performance may be understated Woori Finance (SK biggest bank) posts an almost seven-fold jump in Q4 profit (closed +3.4%) Leading European Sectors: Construction +1.78%, Autos/Parts +1.66%, Banks +1.23% Lagging European Sectors: Food/Bev -0.11%, Media +0.14%, Retail +0.20% MAN loss widens - WOOF eps, revs miss - XOXO 5c eps beat MDRX revs climb - DVA eps, net op revs beat - ARUN penny better CBEY rev forecast below - BJRI earnings better - RP weak outlook WWWW swings to profit - ROVI inline eps - DMD cuts q4 loss PLD cfo to retire - NR inline eps - FTR 46.7% dividend cut QLIK eps miss, poor outlook - WOOF A's light - CLD 18c eps beat ALKS registers 31.9M shrs holder - TLB $75M term loan - SNI div inc EOG net up - BKD loss widens, expenses rise - BGS strong net sales Notable Options Activity Yesterday: EFTC ($9.25 +0.9%) customer sold 20,000 March $9 straddles at $.80. The trader expects the stock to remain in the $8.20 - $9.80 range over the next month and collect premiums from his sales. WTW ($77.67 +1.1%) customer sold 5500 Apr 67.5 puts at $1.70 to buy 3,000 Apr 75 puts $ 4.60. Looks like the trader could be rolling up put protection. HTZ ($13.97 -4.4%) early in the session, as the stock was trading $13.80 a customer bought 3100 March 13 calls for $1.325, which was followed seven minutes later buy a purchase of 3100 March 14 calls for $0.85 Secondaries (announced/priced): MCC IPO's: N/A Key Research: GS removes SJM/HEIA.NA from Conviction Buy List, SocGen downgrades BA.LN & Euro Energy Service Sector EFTA00419540 Key Research: Key Research: (hold) & FINL Key Research: OKE (ow) Key Research: XYL (neut) Key Research: PFCB Jeff downgrades UPL/AIMC/ARTC, Key Baird downgrades MXWL/DELL, Cantor (buy) HSCB downgrades BG, Raja initiates downgrades ITRI, CS downgrades STO initiates MSPD (buy), DB initiates FL JEF (mp), JPM downgrades OVTI & initiates MS downgrades MHS & initiates PRGO (ow), Citi downgrades HSP/ACOR & initiates MEM cuts NVR/LEN/DHI and JBH (sell), Stifel upgrades CHK (buy), REC upgrades Reporting Pre-Open: CPB, HNZ, VTR, AGP, LSE, NRF, POL, PPC, RAIL, SFL, VTR, ZINC Reporting Post-Close: N/A Economic Data: CPI @ 8:30am, Leading Indicators @ 10am Conferences: No major conferences Analyst/Investor Days: N/A Non-Deal Roadshows: B, COT, DLR, DRAD, ECA, FRO, HMSY, KSWS, LECO, LPNT, CAMP, CPWR, FN, MCO, MPWR, MTZ, OFC, PROJ Shareholder Meetings: ALCO, JACK, SLP Equity/Mixed Shelf s: WWWW, MAR, ALXA Other Newspaper Articles & Stories Barron's positive: Vodafone (VOD) Barron's<online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052748704625304577227403950704074.html> WSJ positive: Nestle (NESN VX) WSJ<http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204059804577227333097919976.html> IMF attitude to austerity shifts to ensure government credibility WSJ<http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204792404577227273553955752.html> Google's iPhone Tracking WSJ<http://online.wsj.com/article/S1110001424052970204880404577225380456599176.html? mod=ITP_pageone_0> TV's Big Ad-Sales Bazaar Inspires an Online Copycat WSJ<http://online.wsj.com/article/S1110001424052970204792404577227504044474154.html? mod=ITP_marketplace_0> Stock and Awe for Facebook and Zynga Investors WSJ Heard on the Street<http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204059804577227662383460078.html> Options to Ease 'Stress' At BofA WSJ<http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204059804577227512125289328.html> Germany Vs. the Rest Of Europe NYT<http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/17/business/global/the-rest-of-europe-vs-germany.html> Collection and Credit Firms Facing Broad New Oversight NYT<http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2012/02/16/consumer-bureau-proposes-first-crackdown/? ref=todayspaper> Paul Krugman: Moochers against Welfare NYT Op- Ed<http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/17/opinion/krugman-moochers-against-welfare.html> Cerberus takes a stab at risky natural gas business NY Post<http://www.nypost.com/p/news/business/pe_frack_attack_wG4taNdXu6uhn8FAopFQ3N> EFTA00419541 Starboard prepping for AOL seats NY Post<http://www.nypost.com/p/news/business/starboard_prepping_for_aol_seats_oS6WqwiezqsbtATfo QYfjN> Monti looks to end property tax breaks for the church FT<http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/1d61448e-58be-llel-b118-00144feabdc0.htmlifaxzzlmKzUclJP> Germany cannot win: speak out and they are a bully, remain silent and they are lacking leadership FT<http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ca04f9fa-58ba-llel-b118- 00144feabdc0.html#axzzlmKzUclJP> ECB secures protection on its Greek bonds, could lead to legal action from private bondholders FT<http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/6144c5b6-58ca-llel-b118- 00144feabdc0.html#axzzlmKzUclJP> Anglo-French relations to be tested as Cameron meets Sarkozy in Paris today FT<http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a5a55426-5890-11el-b9c6-00144feabdc0.html(faxzzlmKzUclJP> European pension burden bigger than health, education or defence spending in some countries FT<http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/22c416b8-57ec-llel-ae89- 00144feabdc0.html#axzzlmKzUclJP> City insider crackdown sees broker fined £350k for passing on sensitive information The Times<http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/business/industries/banking/article3322983.ece> Porridge popularity soars The Times<http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/business/industries/naturalresources/article3323109.ece> UK high street pawnshop enjoys robust growth The Times<http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/business/industries/retailing/article3323133.ece> Sixth austerity package in 5 years leaves Greece floored and angered Telegraph<http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/greeks-rage-at-erosion-of- sovereignty-while-leaders-haggle-over-deal-6989029.html> FTT would raise Eurl0bn for the UK government with minimal disruption The Telegraph<The%20Telegraph> UK big four banks warned they face fresh competition enquiry Independent<http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/oft-boss-warns-banks-of- competition-inquiry-6988999.html> Vatican told to pay taxes as Italy tackles budget crisis Independent<http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/vatican-told-to-pay-taxes-as- italy-tackles-budget-crisis-6988938.html> China Telecom denies rumors of iPhone 4S launch China Daily<http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/usa/business/2012-02/17/content_14634370.htm> Nvidia wins adoption of Tegra series from China-based ZTE, Huawei DigiTimes<http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20120217PD207.html> Key Events Next Week Monday: US Markets Closed (President's Day), Eurogroup FinMin meeting in Brussels Tuesday: Chicago Fed Index, IAEA meeting regarding Iran, Eurozone Flash PMI's, Earnings (COG, EXPD, GPC, HD, M, MDT, MHS, MYL, WMT, CHK, DELL, KFT) Wednesday: Existing Home Sales, MBA Mortgage Applications, CS Global Paper & Packaging Conference (NYC), Jefferies Global Clean Tech Conference (NYC), Earnings (DLTR, GRMN, RRD, TJX, ADI, ESRX, FLS, HPQ, LTD, WMB) Thursday: EU Commission publishes GDP, FHFA House Price Index, Kansas City Fed Manufacturing EFTA00419542 Activity, Earnings (AEE, AMT, CMS, DNR, KSS, PCS, SWY, TGT, AIG, GPS) Friday: Michigan Consumer Sentiment, New Home Sales, Earnings (ANR, JCP, NEM, WPO, IPG, PNW, POM) Saturday: G20 finance ministers/central bank governors meet Ike Groff 1680 Washington Blvd Stamford, CT 069011 • (203) 302-7300 1• mailto: (Description: Description: cid:image001.png8010EIB0FB.045D89F0] This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential and intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed. 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