EFTA00420352.pdf

From: Ike Groff Subject: Early Tour 2.3.12 Date: Fri, 03 Feb 2012 11:27:19 +0000 Good Morning ... European Markets up 25-65 bps ... Nikkei Closed -0.51% (HSI +0.08%, China +0.77%, KOSPI -0.60%) EUR 1.3170 (+0.20%) JPY 76.23 (-0.01%) EUR/JPY cross 100.42 (+0.21%) Copper +0.61% Nat Gas -1.64% US 10yr 1.825% Futures: Dow +23, Nasdaq +8, S&P +3 DXY $78.85 (-13c) Crude $96.90 (+54c) Gold $1762.20 (+$2.90) Europe drifting higher and futures up small ahead of U.S. labor report in a few hours. Not much new to report on the Greece front going into the weekend again. Finance ministers from the AAA rated euro countries (Germany, Lux, Netherlands, Finland) meeting today in Berlin to discuss the current situation. China Economic Times article says China has "relatively wide room" cut RCM several times this year to ensure and appropriate increase in the money supple. SHCOMP closed +0.77% overnight to its best levels since early December. III futures +3 handles = 1325 last. ***Jan Labor Report @ 8:30am (Estimates: NFP +140k, PP +160k)*** ***ISM Non-Manufacturing Index / Factory Orders @ 10am*** ***Nevada GOP primary tomorrow*** Wynn reports a mixed quarter (revenues look inline but EBITDA and RevPAR weaker) (trading -3.3%) Wynn Macau profit below ests ($759.8M vs $795.3M) on increasing Macau competition (closed -2.4%) LVMH meets estimates and revs solid (says it is well-equipped to maintain growth) (trading -0.59%) Christian Dior beats estimates (trading -1.2% after having big run into the numbers +20% ytd) Volvo EBIT a touch light driven by weak truck orders (slowing sales in Europe & China) (trading +1.3%) Acme Packet q4 missed own revs/eps revised range + lowered fl2 eps guidance (trading -12%) Take-Two Q3 earnings fell sharply & forecast 2012 loss wider than ests due to 'Max Payne 3' delays THQ Inc Q3 missed including sales $305.4M vs $404.4M ests (to cut 240 jobs) (trading -25%) Microchip announced 85th consecutive quarter of profitability & declared 34.9c cash dividend Journal) Goldman Sachs plans to sell $1B (owns $6.2B) of ICBC shares (Hong Kong Economic Blackstone Group studying a leveraged buyout of Brocade Communications (Bloomberg<http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-02/blackstone-said-to-study-brocade- leveraged-buyout-as-deal-interest-fades.html>) Sunoco strategic initiatives: buyback up to 19.9% shrs w/in 18mos/ 33% div hike/ EFTA00420352 mgmt. changes BT Q3 EBITDA beats estimates & says will meet targets a year earlier than planned (trading +3.2%) Misys says it is in talks with Swiss software rival Temenos over possible merger (TEMN SW +8.4%) Spain gives banks an extra year to recognize losses if they agree to merge with other lenders China Jan Non-Manufacturing PMI falls to 52.9 vs 56 in Dec (lowest reading since 49.7 in Nov) Hutchison Whampoa agrees to buy Orange Austria in a deal valued at $1.7B (deal closes mid-year) Warehouse Group (NZ biggest discount retailer) cut forecast b/c profit margin pressure (traded -4%) Australia January services industry expanded (+2.9 pts to 51.9) (snaps three months of declines) Leading European Sectors: Banks +1.74%, Trav/Les +1.32%, Telco +0.95% Lagging European Sectors: Oil & Gas -0.20%, Chemicals +0.06%, Construction +0.17% IRF posts q2 loss - VRTX eps/revs beat - BOOT net income loss q4 BEBE quarterly dividend - PFG eps/revs miss - COLM guides down FISV eps matches - EW lowers eps outlook - GILD positive Hep C data NSR boosts FY12 eps view - TAME guides up - N q4 revs tops view DRIV guidance light - SFSF billings better - MGM credit facility PWER guides lower - SIMG raises rev outlook - SXC ebidta light UTI 60% net lower - CTCT earnings better - GNW swings to profit FLR raises dividend - PII 64% div increase - INFN beats estimates ATML lowers rev view - SIMG tops ests - SHEN 4G LTE buildout plan Notable Options Activity Yesterday: GMCR ($66.42 +23.9%) customer sold 2500 Feb 65 calls and bought 2500 March 70 calls for even. The trade appears to be rolling, and could be from a purchase of 2,900 of the Feb's for $0.90 on 1/26. GILD ($49.31 +0.3%) customer bought 8000 May 45c for $6.30 and sold 10000 May 50 calls at $3.26. Secondaries (announced/priced): BBEP, ARR, WETF, MNKD IPO's: N/A Key Research: GS downgrades US Managed Care and AGP/VRTX & adds ALXN to Conviction Buy list, SocGen downgrades UNA NA Key Research: Barcap downgrades RDSA LN & upgrades BBT, Think initiates IART/TH0R/REGN (buys) & HTWR (sell), MKM cuts MRK Key Research: Cantor initiates CUBE (buy) & SSS (hold) & EXR/PSA (sells), UBS downgrades ALV (sell), RBC cuts KMX/IP Key Research: DB downgrades RBS LN/KFRC & reinstates CA FP (hold), Baird upgrades TTEK/PEET, JMP downgrades BRCD Key Research: Jefferies downgrades RIMM & upgrades Sands China (buy), MS cuts RSH & upgrades NOV, Wells downgrades EW Key Research: JPM initiates FDO (ow) & DG (neut) & downgrades CVC & upgrades CP/AAP/MDC, Piper downgrades RSTI & upgrades WBC Key Research: CS initiates CHK (neut) & NBL (op) & cuts ATK, Bofa upgrades DNDN, Roth downgrades FCAL, Janney upgrades URBN (buy) Key Research: Citi upgrades CNP (buy) & downgrades SUG/EP/OKE, GS downgrades ARG EFTA00420353 Reporting Pre-Open: AON, BEAM, CLX, EL, SPG, TSN, WY, Panasonic (6752 JP), ABMD, AXL, BAH, HNT, IMN, JOUT, MAC, MGI, MOD, OB, SEP, SIRO, SPB, TXCC, UFS, WI, WTM, AIRT Reporting Post-Close: RBO, WGL Economic Data: January Employment Report @ 8:30am, ISM Non-Manufacturing Index / Factory Orders @ 10am Conferences: No major conferences Analyst/Investor Days: STJ, GLW Non-Deal Roadshows: ACOR, AMZN, CA, CVLT, ELX, PPHM, SLG, WRI Shareholder Meetings: CMC, TSN, ZOLT, COL, ISSI Equity/Mixed Shelf s: NYMT ($250M) Other Newspaper Articles & Stories Barron's positive: Enterprise Product Partners (EPD) & Plaincs All American Pipeline (PAA) Barron's<http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052748704858604577199393682557880.html> WSJ positive: Munich Re (MUV2 GR) WSJ<http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204662204577199054140953154.html> How much are Super PACs spending? WSJ<http://projects.wsj.com/super-pacs/> Facebook's $100 Billion Question WSJ<http://online.wsj.com/article/S1110001424052970204662204577199491268866920.html? mod=ITP_marketplace_0> Facebook's Painful Secondary Impact WSJ Heard on the Street<http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204662204577199220078140972.html> Resource Boom Spurs Big Deal WSJ<http://online.wsj.com/article/S1110001424052970203889904577198294176963230.html? mod=ITP_pageone_0> U.S. Is a Puzzle for Sony Chief WSJ<http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204662204577199481599618346.html> China Considers Offering Aid in Europe's Debt Crisis NYT<http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/03/business/global/china-considers-offering-aid-in- europes-debt-crisis.html?ref=todayspaper> Army Studies Workout Supplements After Deaths NYT<http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/03/business/army-studies-workout-supplements-after-2- deaths.html?ref=todayspaper> What's at Stake in Friday's Jobs Report NYT<http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/02/02/whats-at-stake-in-fridays-jobs-report/? ref=todayspaper> Ottawa leans on banks to tighten lending Globe and Mail<http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/housing/ottawa-leans-on-banks- to-tighten-lending/article2324057/> Bank of England's Posen attacks banks for failing to deliver value for economy Telegraph<http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/9057692/Bank-of-Englands-Posen- attacks-banks-for-failing-to-deliver-value-for-economy.html> Private equity firm joins Petroplus suitors EFTA00420354 Telegraph<http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/oilandgas/9057955/Private- equity-firm-joins-Petroplus-suitors.html> Japanese smoke signals push up Imperial Telegraph<http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/markets/marketreport/9057839/Japanese-smoke- signals-push-up-Imperial.html> Amazon makes quiet entry into Indian retail market via comparison shopping site Economic Times<http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/news-by- industry/services/retailing/amazon-makes-quiet-entry-into-indian-retail-market-via- comparison-shopping-site-junglee-com/articleshow/11733379.cms> BT to offer ultra-fast 330Mbps broadband Guardian<http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/feb/03/bt-ultra-fast-330mbps-broadband> GM Releases Smart Grid APIs for Chevy Volt, via OnStar GreenTech<http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/gm-releases-smart-grid-apis-for-chevy- volt-via-onstar/> Apple unlikely to launch iTV in 2Q12, say sources DigiTimes<http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20120202PD211.html> Key Events Next Week Monday: Credit Suisse Energy Summit (Vail), Earnings (HAS, HUM, SYY, YUM) Tuesday: Colorado, Minnesota, and Missouri primaries/caucuses, Consumer Credit, Treasury to sell $32B of 3yr notes, Cowen Aerospace/Defense Conference (NYC), Earnings (BDX, KO, CBG, DIS, HIG, WU) Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications, Treasury to sell $24B of 10yr notes, China CPI/PPI, Earnings (CVS, IR, RL, S, TWX, WYN, AKAM, CSCO, NWSA, PRU, V, WFM) Thursday: Obama to meet w/Italy's Monti at White House, Wholesale Inventories, Treasury to sell $16B of 30yr notes, BMO Infrastructure & Utilities Conference (Toronto), Earnings (CCE, LO, NBL, PEP, SEE, SIAL, ATVI, EXPE) Friday: Treasury Budget Statement, U. Of Michigan Consumer Confidence, Earnings (NIX, PPL, FLIR) Ike Groff mailto: (Description: Description: cid:image001.png801CBR0FB.045D89F0] This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential and intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed. If you are not the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any dissemination, distribution or copying of this e-mail and any attachment(s) is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error please immediately notify the sender at 203-302-7300 or by replying to this e-mail and delete the e- mail and any attachment(s) from your system. Nothing herein shall be construed as a financial promotion to any person or persons, or a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell any security or other investment or to engage in any trading strategy. Information presented is from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed to be accurate or complete. 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