EFTA00422148.pdf

From: Ike Groff Subject: Early Tour 1.3.12 Date: Tue, 03 Jan 2012 11:23:23 +0000 Good Morning European Markets mixed (DAX +1.1%, CAC -0.64%, FTSE +0.90%)... Nikkei & China still closed (HSI +2.4%, KOSPI +2.69%, ASX +1.1%) EUR 1.3028 (+0.72%) JPY 76.74 (+0.21%) EUR/JPY cross 99.97 (-0.51%) (+0.96%) NZD .7873 (+1.14%) RUB 31.80 (+1.11%) Futures: Dow +202, Nasdaq +40, S&P +23 Gold $1591.60 (+$24.40) Copper +1.28% Silver +2.74% 10yr 1.94% AUD 1.0333 DXY $79.72 (-55c) Crude $101.28 (+$2.45) European markets closed up 2-3% across the board yesterday (FTSE was closed) and are mostly higher again this morning with the exception of Spain & France. DAX +244 points in the last 2 days to 6,142 level = +4.14% to start the year. Article in the WSJ interviews Bridgewater Co-CIO Robert Prince who continues to take a bearish view of the economy in 2012 and beyond. When asked about Europe he says "you've got insolvent banks supporting insolvent sovereigns and insolvent sovereigns supporting insolvent banks." See full article here WSJ<http://professional.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204368104577136531481564726.html? mod=wsj_share_tweet_bot&mg=reno-secaucus-wsp. S&P decision on 15 Eurozone countries could come any day now (Moody's & Fitch will also be providing updates sometime in Ql). Netherlands & Belgium successfully kicked off the 2012 flood of sovereign debt issuance about 45 minutes ago (Belgium borrowing costs hit 18-month low). France will sell up to e8.9 billion of short-term bills @ 9am this morning while Germany will sell es billion in 10yr debt tomorrow. Iowa caucuses today and the latest polls have Mitt Romney with a slight edge over Ron Paul but it should be close (Gingrich has faded to 4th behind Santorum who received a last minute plug from Rupert Murdoch via Twitter last night). S&P futures re-opened up -23 handles = 1276 last +1.83%. ***Construction Spending / ISM Manufacturing @ 10am*** ***FOMC Minutes @ 2pm, Iowa Caucuses today*** $2.8T) before Times) haircut Oct deal World's biggest economies face $7.6T of debt maturing this year (Japan = $3T, US = ECB says banks overnight deposits rose to e446.3B yesterday vs e413.9B the day Troika analysis warns Ireland likely to require welfare cuts & tax increases (Irish Greek government expects swift conclusion of negotiations about intended 50% PSI Greece government spokesman warns Greece could be forced out unless it can agree to Fitch says that the outlook for local and regional governments in France remains challenging U.K. Dec Manufacturing PMI 49.6 vs 47.3 estimate (average reading for Q4 weakest in 2+ years) Spain's registered unemployment rose for 5th month in Dec to new record (22%+ unemployment) German unemployment fell more than forecast in Dec on mild winter weather (6.8% unemployment) EFTA00422148 Total SA buys $2.3 billion Utica shale stake from Chesapeake Energy and EnerVest BP seeks recovery of at least $20B from Halliburton (its cement contractor in 2010 Spain retailers are heavily discounting prices trying to boost sales after weak Christmas season Hugo Boss +9.3% in last 2 days on big volume (strong German textile sales) (no discounting) Banco Santander 341 million shares issued for preference shares begin trading Global auto sales to advance 6.7% this year led by Chinese demand says research Rumor going around earlier this morning in London that Fidel Castro has died (rumor Ltd. GoM spill) tomorrow firm Polk only) India will allow foreign nationals to invest directly in its listed companies (FT<http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/30be0304-352e-11e1-84b9-00144feabdc0.htmlfaxzzliHkbdyoT>) (Sensex +2.8%) Macau's December casino revenue increases 25% to $3 billion driven by Chinese tourists China Dec non-manufacturing PMI 56.0 vs 49.7 prior (seasonal bump into lunar new year) China wants to strengthen links with developing nations this year says foreign affairs minister Hong Kong discussions with China Finance Ministry to allow "recurring" China bond sales Samsung to re-enter Japan's flat panel television market by 2013 w/ LCD models (Nikkei says) purchase) in H1 fell) South Korea foreign exchange reserves fell by $2.23B in Dec (no additional gold South Korea says that it will front load its budget spending to support the economy Singapore's q4 GDP contracted an annualized 4.9% (2nd time in 3qtrs) (manufacturing Leading European Sectors: Basic Resources +3.02%, Autos/Parts +1.86%, Chemicals +1.17% Lagging European Sectors: Utilities -0.37%, Telco -0.35%, Media -0.27% HTZ conversion right triggered - TSTC guides lower - RF ends talks w/ Stifel Notable Options Activity Friday: LEAP ($9.29 +9.4%) & PCS ($8.68 +5.3%)—Both names saw a significant amount of call buying. While each averages about 1,500 contracts per day, 16,000 PCS Jan 9 calls were purchased from $0.25 to $0.40 and 17,800 LEAP Jan 9 calls were bought at various prices from $065 up to $1.62. ASTX ($1.89 +7.4%)—Customer bought 2500 February 2.5 calls for $0.30. ACOM ($22.96 -0.5%)—Opening customer bought 2500 May 25-17.5 call spread for $3.65. Trade EFTA00422149 reflects a bearish or protective position which profits with stock below $21.35 at expiration. Secondaries (announced/priced): N/A IPO's: Cancer Genetics (CGIX) files $50M through MBlair & Baird Key Research: Barcap upgrades RPXC/CYMI/LSI/MU & downgrades AMAT/CODE/FSL/INTC/MCHP & initiates CXS (ew) and WPX (ow) Key Research: Citi upgrades VFC (buy) & downgrades HCS/HMA/LPNT/UHS & AHS/LNCR/SUNH/THC (sells), Opco upgrades RVBD Key Research: GS downgrades GPI/PMCS/SNDK & MCHP/ISIL (sells) & upgrades ALTR/ATML/SMTC (buy), Janney downgrades AKAM Key Research: MS upgrades ENR/HOLX & downgrades BDX, Canaccord downgrades PETD, DB initiates AAP/DLPH/CMG (buys) Key Research: Jeff upgrades AEO/ANN (buys) & downgrades ONXX/GR, Bofa downgrades HLS/KND, Multiple brokers initiates ANGI Key Research: RBC upgrades JACK to Top Pick & upgrades KIM/PAY/KEX & downgrades CPT/DFT/FPO/LHO/NLY/O/SPG/WRI Key Research: Baird upgrades UA & downgrades WWW, Piper downgrades ZUMZ & upgrades AEO/SQNM, Macquarie downgrades EXC/PCG Key Research: JPM downgrades HOLX/PCAR/AMT/NAV & upgrades OSK/TEX/CSCO/VAR/EW, KBW initiates MN (mp) & upgrades PACW Reporting Post-Close: LNDC, PRGS, TISI Economic Data: Construction Spending / ISM Manufacturing PMI @ 10am, FOMC Meeting Minutes @ 2pm Conferences: No major conferences. Analyst/Investor Days: N/A Non-Deal Roadshows: MMYT Shareholder Meetings: N/A Equity/Mixed Shelf s: APRI ($100M), VSCI ($25M) Other Newspaper Articles & Stories Higher Prices Don't Keep Marketers Away From Ad Time for Super Bowl WSJ<http://online.wsj.com/article/S1110001424052970203899504577130940265401370.html? mod=ITP_marketplace_2> No Sign of Break in MSG-Time Warner Blackout WSJ<http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203462304577136731210038376.html? mod=ITP_marketplace_1> Online Profits From Gambling in the Cards WSJ Heard on the Street<http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203899504577130961317275678.html> Bridgewater Takes Grim View of 2012 WSJGhttp://online.wsj.com/article/S1110001424052970204368104577136531481564726.html? mod=ITP_moneyandinvesting_0> Walgreen Adds Perks to Retain Clients WSJ<http://online.wsj.com/article/S1110001424052970204720204577130852448557374.html? mod=ITP_marketplace_1> Fidelity Investments Looks Ready To Offer ETF's WSJ<http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204632204577129261187526088.html? EFTA00422150 mod=ITP_moneyandinvesting_3> For 2012, signs point to retreat in consumer spending NYT<http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/03/business/for-2012-signs-point-to-retreat-in-consumer- spending.html?_r=l&smid=tw-nytimes&seid=auto> Caterpillar Locks Out Workers in Canada NYT<http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/03/business/workers-locked-out-at-caterpillar-locomotive- plant-in-canada.html> A Gathering Storm Over `Right to Work' in Indiana NYT<http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/03/business/gathering-storm-over-right-to-work-in- indiana.html?ref=todayspaper> Storehouses for Solar Energy Can Step In When the Sun Goes Down NYT<http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/03/business/energy-environment/building-storehouses-for- the-suns-energy-for-use-after-dark.html?ref=todayspaper> Year-end bets against euro hit record FT<http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/726e8f26-355b- llel-84b9-00l44feabdc0.html4axzzliHkbdyoT> Regions Said to End Talks With Stifel on Morgan Keegan's Sale Bloomberg<http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-01-02/regions-said-to-end-talks-with-stifel- on-morgan-keegan-s-sale.html> 2011 box-office figures are in LA Times<http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/entertainmentnewsbuzz/2012/01/box-office-mission- impossible-sherlock-holmes.html> LA arson suspect is 24-year-old Hollywood man LA Times<http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/lanow/2012/01/24-year-old-held-in-fires.html> Bank of America severing some small-business credit lines LA Times<http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-credit-cutoff-20120103,0,3538902.story> Big 3 find different paths to big changes Detroit News<http://www.detroitnews.com/article/20120103/AUTO01/201030366/1148/auto01/Big-3-find- different-paths-big-changes> WestJet sets sights on Air Canada's title Globe and Mail<http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/westjet-sets-sights-on-air-canadas- title/article2288493/> German President Christian Wulff in furore over loan BBC<http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-16389776> Bleak midwinter for high street's losers Guardian<http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/jan/02/retail-christmas-losers-winners> Shoppers desert high street in the New Year Telegraph<http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/retailandconsumer/8988266/Shoppers- shun-the-January-sales.html> Greek taxman accused of failing to collect fines Telegraph<http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8988430/Greek-tax-crackdown- official-accused-of-failing-to-collect-fines.html> Fresh investor rebellion brewing at Omega Insurance Telegraph<http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/insurance/8988000/F resh-investor-rebellion-brewing-at-0mega-Insurance.html> BAA's investors to share £240m windfall from London airports Independent<http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/baas-investors-to-share-240m- windfall-from-london-airports-6284272.html> EFTA00422151 Not the iPad All Things D planning-media-related-event-in-the-bigger-apple-this-month/> 3 or New TV But Apple Planning Media-Related Event in NYC This Month Acer, Lenovo launch Wintel tablet PC in DigiTimes< Elpida, Toshiba reportedly in integration talks DigiTimes< to Key Events This Week 3Q12 Wednesday: Germany CS billion 10yr bond auction, Vehicle Sales, Eurozone PMI's & CPI, China HSBC Services PMI, Citi Entertainment, Media, & Telecom Conference (SF), Earnings (MOS, SONC, TXI) Thursday: Retail Comps, ADP Employment, Challenger Job Cuts, Jobless Claims, ISM non- manufacturing, Eurozone Industrial Orders, Earnings (MON, STZ, APOL, FDO) Friday: December Employment Report, Eurozone Economic Confidence, Next round of formal negotiations for new EU fiscal treaty, Sarkozy meets with Monti in Paris, Earnings (CMC) Ike Groff mailto: I • (Description: Description: cid:image001.png@OlCBBOFB.045D89F0) I • This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential and intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed. 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