EFTA00587659.pdf

IPI INTERNATIONAL PEACE INSTITUTE Vienna 16 July 2015 Proposal for the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation 2016-2018: POLIO ERADICATION & HEALTH AND SECURITY I. OVERVIEW This proposal by the International Peace Institute (IPI) to the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (BMGF) consists of two parts. The first focuses on (i) polio eradication: IPI will continue its analysis on the security, political, and operational aspects of the polio eradication campaign in Pakistan and Afghanistan and provide input and recommendations on how to reduce risk and increase the effectiveness of the campaign in these difficult environments. The second part (ii) has a broader thematic scope on health and security, focusing on the implications of insurgency, armed groups, terrorism, violent extremism and poor governance on health and vice verso. This includes global issues of health diplomacy and health policy development and implementation, particularly in fragile states. II. ACTIVITIES In support of BMGF's objectives, IPI will deliver in the following areas: • Security: provide continued access to IPI's field research; security-related analysis; real-time spot reports; granular local analysis; strategic inputs and recommendations; and tactical advice on short-term implementation in hostile environments. IPI has a proven track record in providing BMGF with a unique perspective and informed second opinion on existing reports that often lack first-hand insights on local actors, conditions and events in Afghanistan and Pakistan (as well as Nigeria, Somalia and Syria as required). IPI often highlights views that are outside the mainstream of media reporting and challenges the conventional wisdom when necessary. • Communications: IPI helps correct inaccurate narratives contained in existing communications strategies that have the unintended consequence of sending the wrong message, in the wrong way, to the wrong audience. Drawing on its analysis of local conditions, IPI provides advice on targeted media strategies that can help reduce barriers to polio eradication. IPI provides an independent perspective on the effectiveness of polio eradication campaigns, including on under-reporting of polio cases, over-reporting of vaccinations, as well as governance and integrity issues. • Access: using its local and high-level contacts, IPI provides access to remote and dangerous locations as well as relevant decision-makers, including non-state actors. IPI also provides unique insights into complex and dynamic local conditions. Furthermore, it can support the catalytic role of BMGF in the multilateral arena. 1 EFTA00587659 • Early Warning: security alerts to complement international efforts to improve early warning on pandemics. IPI's convening power can bring together high-level security, health and political players who are in a position to trigger early responses. • Thematic Expertise: provision of in-depth global and regional expertise on the implications of violent extremism, criminal groups, terrorists and insurgents on global development and health. IPI will provide in-depth research and risk analysis through its global network of experts on violent extremism, armed groups, and insurgency. IPI will organize a set of events and initiatives to create a platform to help promote the rising importance of health diplomacy and global health policy development. This would allow decision-makers from states, international organizations, NGOs, foundations, the private sector and civil society to exchange views and recommendations on how to more effectively address the relationship between health and security, and thereby be better prepared for future health risks such as pandemics. III. EXPECTED OUTCOME & IMPACT • Security: Improved ability on the part of BMGF and its partners to assess events and to plan better, including for contingencies. • Communications: More effective communications campaigns that reach the affected communities and convey messages that are sensitive to local conditions. • Access: Lower barriers and soften resistance to polio eradication. • Early Warning: Early warning to improve readiness and response mechanisms. • Thematic Synergies: Increased awareness of the relationship between heath and security, a nexus among relevant actors to improve health (particularly in fragile states), greater appreciation for how improved health can reduce vulnerability and contribute to sustainable development. • Course correction: Better awareness of security and political conditions generates a feedback loop that enables quick course correction to take advantage of fast-breaking situations and enable remedial action. • Aggregate Impact: It is hoped and expected that IPI's engagement con help BMGF to eradicate polio in those few remaining unstable locations where national health structures are unable to access, cope or deliver. This would enable BMGF to successfully conclude its global polio eradication programme, and achieve the objective of a polio-free world. The result would be a major achievement for global health, peace, and development. IV. IPI EXPERTISE Polio IPI's experts in Pakistan, Afghanistan, Somalia, and Nigeria have developed a network of interlocutors and accumulated in-depth knowledge on the eradication effort and the response to pandemics, as well as on issues related to regional humanitarian responses and practical solutions to complex crises. IPI's on-the-ground capacities have special importance in the context of rapidly changing landscapes and shifting alliances in the complex matrices of non-state actors whose activities have a destructive impact on health and security. 2 EFTA00587660 Pandemics IPI is currently leveraging its knowledge, network and expertise by organizing a high-level conference Preparing for Pandemics: Lessons Learned for More Effective Responses at United Nations Headquarters in Geneva in September 2015. The conference will address the complexity of the topic by finding actionable solutions and developing policy recommendations for the thematic clusters of (i) Enhancing Preparedness and Response as well as (ii) Building Resilient Health Systems. Violent Extremism. Armed Groups. Terrorism and Insurgency IPI is establishing a Task Force on Preventing and Countering Violent Extremism. It is also part of a global network of experts on organized crime and has extensive knowledge on political Islam, as well as violent armed groups, particularly in fragile states. IPI carries out research on these topics and holds regular meetings on specific regions or groups. For example, IPI recently held a series of meetings on political Islam. It also has a network of experts that do on-the-ground analysis. This can help BMGF to better understand the rationale of groups opposed to the polio eradication campaign, while IPI's research and expertise on organized crime and other armed groups can provide greater situational awareness and help to reduce risk in difficult environments. Risk and Resilience IPI's work is framed in the context of Risk and Resilience: reducing risk and increasing resilience at all levels (global, regional, national and local). IPI has carried out numerous projects involving field- based, in-person polling, as well as phone banks. IPI has developed a methodology for analyzing organized crime in fragile states and IPI staff members have experience with operating in difficult environments. IPI's niche lies in its ability to generate cutting-edge research, policy analysis and recommendations, and to reach and influence policymakers at all levels. It combines granular local knowledge with in-depth analysis of global trends, threats and challenges. V. ORGANIZATION IPI is an independent, international not-for-profit think tank with offices in New York, across from United Nations headquarters, in Vienna, and a Middle East regional office in Manama, Bahrain. IPI is dedicated to managing risk and building resilience to promote peace, security and sustainable development. To achieve its purpose, IPI employs a mix of policy research, strategic analysis, publishing, and convening. VI. PREVIOUS COLLABORATION BMGF and IPI have collaborated on the issues of Polio Eradication and Peace and Health. The project, which started in 2013, has involved a continued analysis of the political context in the localities where polio is still prevalent, including Afghanistan, Pakistan, Nigeria, and Somalia. The aim is to understand and counter threats to security that affect polio eradication. A broader initiative on peace and health, related to BMGF's Global Development and Global Health Programs, has been looking at reducing vulnerability and increasing resilience by assisting in mitigating the sources of instability that threaten health and, conversely, alleviating disease and poor health that threaten stability. This includes i) humanitarian affairs and emergency responses, ii) peace, stability, governance and health in Africa, iii) peace operations, iv) as well as data mining on peace and health. *** 3 EFTA00587661