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LETTER
doE10.1038/nature14971
A spatial model predicts that dispersal and cell
turnover limit intratumour heterogeneity
Bartlomiej WaclawI, Ivana Bozic 13, Meredith E. Pittman'', Ralph H. Hruban4, Bert Vogelstein“ & Martin A. NowaIc2-1.6
Most cancers in humans are large, measuring centimetres in
diameter, and composed of many billions of cells'. An equivalent
mass of normal cells would be highly heterogeneous as a result of
the mutations that occur during each cell division. What is remark-
able about cancers is that virtually every neoplastic cell within a
large tumour often contains the same core set of genetic altera-
tions, with heterogeneity confined to mutations that emerge late
during tumour growth'''. How such alterations expand within the
spatially constrained three-dimensional architecture of a tumour,
and come to dominate a large, pre-existing lesion, has been
unclear. Here we describe a model for tumour evolution that shows
how short-range dispersal and cell turnover can account for rapid
cell mixing inside the tumour. We show that even a small selective
advantage of a single cell within a large tumour allows the
descendants of that cell to replace the precursor mass in a clinically
relevant time frame. We also demonstrate that the same median-
isms can be responsible for the rapid onset of resistance to chemo-
therapy. Our model not only provides insights into spatial and
temporal aspects of tumour growth, but also suggests that target-
ing short-range cellular migratory activity could have marked
effects on tumour growth rates.
Tumour growth is initiated when a single cell acquires genetic or
epigenetic alterations that change the net growth rate of the cell (birth
minus death), and enable its progeny to outgrow surrounding cells. As
these small lesions grow, the cells acquire additional alterations that
cause them to multiply even faster and to change their metabolism to
survive better the harsh conditions and nutrient deprivation. This
progression eventually leads to a malignant tumour that can invade
surrounding tissues and spread to other organs. Typical solid tumours
contain about 30-70 clonal amino-acid-changing mutations that have
accumulated during this multi-stage progression'. Most of these muta-
tions are believed to be passengers that do not affect growth, and only
—5-10% are drivers that provide cells with a small selective growth
advantage. Nevertheless, a major fraction of the mutations, particu-
larly the drivers, are present in 30-100% of neoplastic cells in the
primary tumour, as well as in metastatic lesions derived from it's.
Most attempts at explaining the genetic make-up of tumours
assume well-mixed populations of cells and do not incorporate spatial
constraintr'°. Several models of the genetic evolution of expanding
tumours have been developed in the past"-'4, but they assume either
very few mutations'
or one- or two-dimensional growth".".
Conversely, models that incorporate spatial limitations have been
developed to help to understand processes such as tumour metabolism1s,
angiogenesism" and cell migration", but these models ignore gen-
etics. Here, we formulate a model that combines spatial growth and
genetic evolution, and use the model to describe the growth of primary
tumours and metastases, as well as the development of resistance to
therapeutic agents.
We first model the expansion of a metastatic lesion derived from a
cancer cell that has escaped its primary site (for example, breast or
colorectal epithelium) and travelled through the circulation until it
lodged at a distant site (for example, lung or liver). The cell initiating
the metastatic lesion is assumed to have all the driver gene mutations
needed to expand. Motivated by histopathological images (Fig. la), we
model the lesion as a conglomerate of balls of cells (see Methods and
Extended Data Fig. 1). Cells occupy sites in a regular three-dimen-
sional lattice (Extended Data Fig. 2a, b). Cells replicate stochastically
with rates proportional to the number of surrounding empty sites
d
Figure I I Structure of solid neoplasms. a, Hepatocellular carcinoma
composed of balls of cells (circled in green) separated by non-neoplastic tissue
(asterisk). b, Adjacent section of the bottom tumour in a immunolabelled
with the proliferation marker Ki67. The edge ofthe tumour is delineated in red;
the centre is marked with a green circle. Proliferation is decreased in the centre
when compared to the edge of the neoplasm. c, d, Higher magnification of
the centre (c) and the edge (d) with each proliferating neoplastic cell marked
by a green dot. The blue nuclei without green dots are non-proliferating. The
red circle in c demonstrates an example of cells (inflammatory cells) that
were not included in the count of neoplastic cells. The neoplastic tissue in
d is above the red line; non-neoplastic (normal liver) is below the red
line. Comparison of c with d shows that proliferation of neoplastic cells is
decreased in the centre as compared to the edge of the lesion (quantified in
Extended Data Table I).
'School of Physics end Astronomy. Univesity of Edinburgh Olt Peter Guthrie Tad Reed. Echnburei CH9 ND. UK.2Prowaen for Evolutonery Dynamics, Harvwd University. One Battle Square.
Cambridge. Massachusetts 02138. USA. aDepartment et Mathematics. lianrard thwersity. One Oxford Street. Cambridee. Massachusetts 02133. USA' he Sol Goldman Pancreatic Cancer Research
Center. Department et Palk...sly. Johns Flocains University Sdicee of Medicine. 401 North Broadway. Weinberg 2202. Baltimore. Maryland 21231.USA SLucleig Center and Howard Hushes medial
InSlittite, Johns Hopkins Kimmel Cancer Center. 1650 Oriws Street Bellmore. Maryland 21287. USA. `Department oe Organismicand Evolubonary Ulm/. Renard Unmake. 26 Word Street
Cambridge. Massashusetts 02138. USA.
00 MONTH 2015 I VOL 000 I NATURE I 1
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RESEARCH
LETTER
(non- neoplastic cells or extracellular matrix), hence replication is
faster at the edge of the tumour. This is supported by experimental
data (Fig. I b-d and Extended Data Table I). A cell with no cancer cell
neighbours replicates at the maximal rate of b = In(2) = 0.69 days-I,
in which b denotes the initial birth rate, equivalent to 24h cell-
doubling time, and a cell that is completely surrounded by other cancer
cells does not replicate. Cells can also mutate, but we assume all muta-
tions are passengers (they do not confer fitness advantages). After
replication, a cell moves with a small probability (M) to a nearby place
close to the surface of the lesion and creates a new lesion. This 'sprout-
ing of initial lesions could be due to short-range migration after an
epithelial-to-mesenchymal transition" and consecutive reversion to a
non-motile phenotype. Alternatively, it could be the result of another
process such as angiogenesis (Methods), through which the tumour
gains better access to nutrients. The same model governs the evolution
of larger metastatic lesions that have already developed extensive vas-
culature. Cells die with a death rate (d) independent of the number of
neighbours, and are replaced by empty sites (non-neoplastic cells
within the local tumour environment).
If there is little dispersal (M .6 0), the shape of the tumour becomes
roughly spherical as it grows to a large size (Fig. 2a and Supplementary
Video 2). However, even a very small amount of dispersal markedly
affects the predicted shape. For M> 0, the tumour forms a conglom-
erate of `balls' (Fig. 2b, Extented Data Fig. 2c and Supplementary
Video 3), much like those observed in actual metastatic lesions, with
the balls separated by islands of non- neoplastic stromal cells mixed
with extracellular matrix. In addition to this remarkable change in
topology, dispersal strongly affects the growth rate and doubling time
of the tumour. Although the size (N) of the tumour increases with time
(7) from initiation as
without dispersal (Extended Data Fig. 3a, b),
it grows much faster (—exp(const X 7) for large 7) when M>
(Fig. 2c). This also remains true for long-range dispersal in which M
affects the probability of escape from the primary tumour into the
circulation to create new lesions in distant organs (metastasis).
Using plausible estimates for the rates of cell birth, death and dispersal
probability, we calculate that it takes 8 years for a lesion to grow from
one cell to one billion cells in the absence of dispersal (Al = 0), but less
than 2 years with dispersal (Fig. 2c). The latter estimate is consistent
with experimentally determined rates of metastasis growth as well
as clinical experience, while the conventional model (without dis-
persal) is not.
a
1010
102
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
T (months)
M=10-5
Non-spatial models point to the size of a tumour as a crucial deter-
minant of chemotherapeutic drug resistance'''. To determine
whether a spatial model would similarly predict this dependency in
a clinically relevant time frame, we calculated tumour regrowth prob-
abilities after targeted therapies. We assume that the cell that initiates
the lesion is susceptible to treatment, otherwise the treatment would
have no effect on the mass, and that the probability of a resistant
mutation is 10- ' (Methods); only one such mutation is needed for a
regrowth.
Figure 3a shows snapshots from a simulation (Supplementary
Video I) performed before and after the administration of a typical
targeted therapy at time T= 0. At first, the size of the lesion (-3 mm at
T= 0) rapidly decreases, but I month later resistant clones begin to
proliferate and form tumours of microscopic size. Such resistant sub-
clones are predicted to be nearly always present in lesions of sizes that
can be visualized by clinical imaging techniquesS12. By 6 months after
treatment, the lesions have regrown to their original size. The evolu-
tion of resistance is a stochastic process—some lesions shrink to zero
and some regrow (Extended Data Fig. 4a). Figure 3b, c shows the
probability of regrowth versus the time from the initiation of the lesion
to the onset of treatment upon varying net growth rates b-d and
dispersal probabilities. Regardless of growth rate, the capacity to
migrate makes it more likely that regrowth will occur sooner, particu-
larly for more aggressive cancers, that is, those which have higher net
growth rates (Fig. 3b). This conclusion is in line with recent theoretical
work on evolving populations of migrating cells''. If resistant muta-
tions additionally increase the dispersal probability before or during
treatment, regrowth is faster (Extended Data Fig. 4b, c).
Having shown that the predictions of the spatial model are consist-
ent with metastatic lesion growth and regrowth times, we turn to
primary tumours. In contrast to metastatic lesions, here the situation
is considerably more complex because the tumour cells are continually
acquiring new driver gene mutations that can endow them with fitness
advantages over adjacent cells within the same tumour. Our model of a
primary tumour assumes that it is initiated via a single driver gene
mutation that provides a selective growth advantage over normal
neighbouring cells. Each subsequent driver gene mutation reduces
the death rate as d = b(l — s)k, in which k is the number of driver
mutations in the cell (k a 0, and s is the average fitness advantage
per driver. Almost identical results are obtained if driver gene muta-
tions increase cell birth rather than decrease cell death, or affect both
Figure 21 Short-range dispersal affects size,
shape and growth rate of tumours. a. b. A
spherical lesion in the absence of dispersal (M = 0)
(a) and a conglomerate of lesions (b), each initiated
by a cell that has migrated from a previous
lesion, for low but non-zero migration (M = 10-6).
Colours reflect the degree of genetic similarity
cells with similar colours have similar genetic
alterations. The death rate is d = 0.8b,
which corresponds to a net growth rate of
0.26 = 0.14 days- I, and N = 10' cells. c, Dispersal
(M > 0) causes the tumour to grow faster in
time. Each point = 100 sanples, error bars (too
small to be visible) are In. Continuous lines
(extrapolation) arc 6,000 X 1 00.43T (gee,)
1,000 X 100 77. (blue).
2 I NATURE I VOL 000 I 00 MONTH 2015
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EFTA00603738
LETTER
RESEARCH
7
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Figure 3 I Treatment success rates depend on the net growth rate of
tumours. a, Time snapshots before and during therapy (M =
Resistant
subpopulations that cause the tumour to regrow after treatment can be seen
at T = I month. b, c, Probability of tumour regrowth (P,g,„,$) as a function
of time after treatment initiation, for different dispersal probabilities (M) and
net growth rates of the resistant cells. A higher net growth rate (b) leads to
a high regrowth probability, so that 50% of tumours regrow 6 months after
treatment is initiated when M = I 0-5. c., Tumours with lower net growth rates
require >20 months to achieve the same probability of regrowth. Number of
samples = Ito 800 per point (282 on average). Error bars are M. Sec
Methods for details.
cell birth and cell death (Extended Data Fig. 514; the most important
parameter is the fitness gain, s, conferred by each driver mutation.
Figure 4a shows that in the absence of any new driver mutations (as
for a perfectly normal cell growing in utero), donal subpopulations
would be restricted to small, localized areas. Each of these areas has at
least one new genetic alteration, but none of them confers a fitness
advantage (they are 'passengers'). In an early tumour, in which the
centre cell contains the initiating driver gene mutation, the same struc-
ture would be observed—as long as no new driver gene mutations have
yet appeared. The occurrence of a new driver gene mutation, however,
markedly alters the spatial distribution of cells. In particular, the het-
erogeneity observed in normal cells (Fig. 4a) is substantially reduced
(Fig. 4b and Supplementary Video 5). The degree of heterogeneity can
be quantified by calculating the number of genetic alterations (passen-
gers plus drivers) shared between two cells separated by various dis-
tances (Fig. 4d-f). The genetic diversity is markedly decreased (Fig. 4e),
even with relatively small fitness advantages (s = 1%). This also has
implications for the number of genetic alterations that will be present
in a macroscopic fraction (for example, >50%) of all cells. Figure 4f
shows that this number is many times larger for s = I% than s = 0%.
Furthermore, our model predicts that virtually all cells within a large
tumour will have at least one new driver gene mutation after 5 years of
growth (Extended Data Fig. 5a).The faster the clonal expansion occurs
(the larger s is), the smaller the number of passenger mutations
(Extended Data Fig. 5d, e). Our results are also robust to changes to
the model (Methods and Extended Data Figs 5 and 6). We stress that
an important prerequisite for limiting heterogeneity is cell turnover in
the tumour, because in the spatial setting cells with driver mutations
can 'percolate through the tumour only if they replace other cells. In
the absence of cell turnover, tumours are much more heterogeneous
(Extended Data Fig. 6d).
In summary, our model accounts for many facts observed clinically
and experimentally. Our results are robust and many assumptions can
be relaxed without qualitatively affecting the outcome (Methods and
Supplementary Information). Although tumour cell migration has
s-0%
b
s-1%
d
2 40
S
! 44.1.4 G
A
As c
!
2o
00 0.6 1.0 1.5 2.0
s-0%
s-1%
E
3.
N • lor is 2.5
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.6-2.0
13 $13
Z
1.
Figure 4 Genetic diversity is strongly reduced by the emergence of driver
mutations. a-f. For all, M = 0 and the initial net growth rate = 0.007 clays-1
(d = 0.996). The three most abundant genetic alterations (GAs) have been
colour-coded using red (R), green (G) and blue (8) (c). Each section is 80 cells
thick. Combinations of the three basic colours correspond to cells having two or
three of these genetic alterations. a, No drivers—separated, conical sectors
emerge in different parts of the lesion, each corresponding to a different clone.
b, Drivers with selective advantage s = 1% lead to clonal expansions and
many cells have all three genetic alterations (white area). d Genetic diversity
can be determined quantitatively by randomly sampling pairs of cells separated
by distance r and counting the number of shared genetic alterations. e, The
number of shared genetic alterations versus the normalized distance il<r>
decreases much more slowly for the case with (red) than without (blue) driver
mutations. f, The total number of genetic alterations present in at least
50% of all cells is much larger for s = 1% than for s = 0%. Number of
samples = 50 per data point. Error bars arc M.
historically been viewed as a feature of cancer associated with late
events in tumorigenesis, such as invasion through basement mem-
branes or vascular walls, this classical view of migration pertains to
the ability of cancer cells to migrate over large distance?'. Instead, our
analysis reveals that even small amounts of localized cellular move-
ment are able to markedly reshape a tumour. Moreover, we predict
that the rate of tumour growth can be substantially altered by a change
in dispersal rate of the cancer cells, even in the absence of any changes
in doubling times or net growth rates of the cells within the tumour.
Some of our predictions could be experimentally tested using new cell
labelling techniques'''. Our results could also greatly inform the
interpretation of mutations in genes whose main functions seem to
be related to the cytoskeleton or to cell adhesion rather than to cell
birth, death, or differentiationn". For example, cells that have lost the
expression of E-cadherin (a cell adhesion protein) are more migratory
than normal cells with intact E-cadherin expression", and loss of
E-cadherin in pancreatic cancer has been associated with poorer pro-
gnosis", in line with our predictions.
Online Content Methods along with any additional Extended Data display items
and Source Data. are available in the online version of the paper: references unique
to these sections appear only in the online paper.
Received 1 September 2014: accepted 23 July 2015.
Published online 26 August 2015.
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Supplementary Information is available in the online version of the paper.
Acknowledgements Support from The John Templeton Foundation is gratefully
acknowledged B.W. was supported by the Leverhulme Trust Eery-Career Fellowship.
and the Royal Society of Edinburgh Personal Research Fellowship. 1.8. was supported
by FoundationalQuestions in Evolutionary Bio
Grant
S.M.acknowledge support from The Virginia and M. Ludwig Fund for Cancer
Research. The Lustgarten Foundation for Pancreatic Cancer Research. The Sd
Goldman Center for Pancreatic Cancer Research. and Nil grants CA43460 and
CA62924.
Author Contributions
I.B. and B.Y. designed the study. B.W.wrote the
computer pr
ams and made simulations. B.W.. I.B. andfl
made analytic
calculations.= and R.H.H.canied out experimental work All authorsdiscussed the
results. The man uscr_S_was written primarily by B.W.,=. I.B. and BV.. with
contributions from= and R.H.H.
Author Information Re .nts and perrnissions information is available at
The authors declare no competing financial interests.
Readers are welcome to comment on the online version of the paper.
Cares ndence and requests for materials should be addressed to=
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METHODS
No statistical methods were used to predetermine sample size. Experiments were
not randomized and investigators were not blinded to allocation during experi-
ments and outcome assessment
Spatial model for tumour evolution. Tumour modelling has a long tradition".
Many models of spatially expanding tumours were proposed in the past"'"',
but they either assume very fewn-m-s'-"."."-" or no new mutations at allumat".".
or one- or two-dimensional growthwwn'". On the other hand, well-mixed
models with several mutations'" do not often include space, and computa-
tional models aimed at being more biologically realistic"' require too much
computing resources (time and memory) to simulate realistically large tumours
(N., 10' cells). Our model builds on the Eden lattice model' and combines spatial
growth and accumulation of multiple mutations. Since we focus on the interplay of
genetics. spatial expansion and short-range dispersal of cells. for simplicity we do
not explicitly model metabolism". tissue mechanics, spatial heterogeneity of tis-
sues, different types of cells present or angiogenesis".
A tumour is made of non-overlapping balls (microlesions) of cells. Tumour cells
occupy sites of a regular 3D square lattice (Moore neighbourhood, 26 neighbours).
Empty lattice sites are assumed to be either normal cells or filled with extracellular
matrix and are not modelled explicitly. Each cell in the model is described by its
position and a list of genetic alterations that have occurred since the initial neo-
plastic cell, and the information about whether a given mutation is a passenger.
driver. or resistance-carrying mutation. A passenger mutation does not affect the
net growth rate whereas a driver mutation increases it by disrupting tight regu-
lation of cellular divisions and shifts the balance towards increased proliferation or
decreased apoptosis. The changes can also be epigenetic and we do not distinguish
between different types of alterations. We assume that each genetic alteration
occurs only once ('infinite allele model"). The average numbers of all genetic
alterations, driver and resistant genetic alterations produced in a single replication
event are denoted by y, 7d. and y r. respectively. When a cell replicates, each of the
daughter cells receives n new genetic alterations of each type (n being generally
different in both cells)drawn at random from the Poisson probabilitydistribution:
e-712(1.12)"
POO —
(I)
n!
in which x denotes the type of genetic alteration.
In model A shown in Figs 2-1. replication occurs stochastically. with rate
proportional to the number of empty sites surrounding the replicating cell. and
death occurs with constant rate depending only on the number of drivers. We also
simulated other scenarios (models B, C and D. see below). Driver mutations
increase the net growth rate (the difference between proliferation and death) either
by increasing the birth rate or decreasing the death rate by a constant factor 1 + s.
in which s> 0.
Dispersal is modelled by moving an offspring cell to a nearby position where it
starts a new microksion (Extended Data Fig. la). Klicroksions repel each other; a
'shoving algorithm's" (Extended Data Fig. Ib) ensures they do not merge.
Code availability. The computer code (available at httpifwww2.ph.ed.ac.uki
—bwadawfcancer-code) can handle up to 1 X 109 cells. which corresponds to
tumours that are clinically meaningful and can be observed by conventional
medical imaging (diameter >1 cm). The algorithm is discussed in details in the
Supplementary Information. It is not an exact kinetic Monte Carlo algorithm
because such an algorithm would be too slow to simulate large tumours. A com-
parison with kinetic Monte Carlo for smaller tumours (Supplementary
Information) shows that both algorithms produce consistent results.
Model parameters. The initial birth rate 6= In(2)
0.69 days "'. which corre-
sponds to a 21 h minimum doubling time. The initial death rate d = 0...0.995b
depends on the aggressiveness of the tumour (larger values = less aggressive lesion).
In simulations of targeted therapy. we assume that. before treatment, = 0.69
days"' and d= 0.56 = 0.35 dayss '. whereas during treatment b= 035 days- '
and d = 0.69 days- ', that is, birth and death rates swap places This rather arbitrary
choice leads to the regrowth time of about 6 months which agrees well with clinical
evidence. Mutation probabilities are 7 = 0.02,7d = 1 X 10-5.7, = I X 10-7. in line
with experimental evidence and theoretical work"'". Since there are no reliable
data on the dispersal probability M. we have explored a range of values between
M = 1 X 10-7 and I X 10-1. An parameters are summarized in Extended Data Fig.
Ic, see also further discussion in Supplementary Information.
Validity of the assumptions of the modeL Our model is deliberately oversim-
plified. However, many of the assumptions we make can be experimentally jus-
tified or shown not to qualitatively affect the model.
Three-dimensional regular lattice of cells. The 3D Moore neighbourhood was
chosen because it is computationally fast and introduces relatively fever artefacts
related to lattice symmetries. Real tissues are much less regular and the number of
nearest neighbours is different". However. recent simulations of similar models of
bacterial colonies"' show that the structure of the lattice (or the lack thereof in
off-lattice models) has a marginal effect on genetic heterogeneity.
Asynchronous cell division. Division times of related cells remain correlated for a
few generations. However, stochastic cell division implemented in our model is a
good approximation for a large mass of cells and is much less computationally
expensive than modelling a full cell cycle.
Replication faster at the boundary than in the Interior. Several studies have
described a higher proliferation rate at the leading edge of tumours, and this has
been associated with a more aggressive clinical course". To estimate the range of
values of death rate d for our model. we used the proliferation marker Ki67.
Representative formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded tissue blocks were selected
from four small chromophobe renal cell carcinomas and six small hepatocellular
carcinomas by the pathologist (=.).
A section of each block was immunola-
belled for IC67 using the Ventana Benchmark XT system. Around 8-12 images.
depending on the size of the lesion, were acquired from each tumour. Fields were
chosen at random from the leading edge and the middle of the tumour and were
not necessarily 'hot spots' of proliferative activity. Using an Image) macro, each
Ki67-positive tumour nucleus was labelled green by the pathologist. and each
Ki67-negative tumour nucleus was labelled red. Other cell types (endothelium,
fibroblasts and inflammatory cells) were not labelled. The proliferation rate was
then calculated using previously descrthed methods". Statistical significance of the
results was determined using a Kolmogorov-Smimov nap-sample test (signifi-
cance level 0.05). The study was approved by the Institutional Review Board of the
Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine. In all ten tumours, the proliferation
rate at the leading edge of the tumour was grmter than that at the centre by a factor
of 1.25 to 6 (Extended Data Table I). Comparing the density of proliferating cells
to our model gives cf.., 0.56 (range: d = 0.176...0.86), which is what we assume in
the simulations of aggressive lesions.
Equal fitness of all cells in metastatic lesions. We assume that cells in a meta-
static lesion are already very fit since they contain multiple driven. Indeed. studies
of primary tumours and their matched metastases usually fail to find driver muta-
tions present in the metastases that were not present in the primary lesions'',
although there are notable exceptions, see, for example. refs 75 and 76.
Experimental evidence in microbes" and (to a lesser extent) in eukaryotes" sug-
gests that fitness gains due to individual mutations are largest at the beginning of
an evolutionary process and that the effects of later mutations are much smaller. It
remains to be seen how well these results apply to late genetic alterations in
cancer" but if true. new driven occurring in the lesion are unlikely to spread
through the population before the lesion reaches a clinically relevant size.
Dispersant, our model. cells detach from the lesion and attach again at a different
location in the tissue. This can be viewed either as cells migrating from one place to
another one. or as a more generic mechanism that allows tumour cells to get better
access to nutrients by dispersing within the tissue. hence providing a growth
advantage over cells that did not disperse. Some mechanisms that do not involve
active motion (that is. cells becoming motile) are discussed below.
Migration. Cancer cells are known to undergo epithelial-to-mesenchymal trans-
ition. the origin of which is thought to be epigenetic". This involves a cell becom-
ing motik and miming some distance. If the cell finds the right environment, it can
switch back to the non-motile phenotype and start a new lesion. Motility can be
enhanced by tissue fluidization due to replication and death". Instead of mod-
elling the entire cycle (epithelial-mesenchymal-epithelial). we only model the
final outcome (a cell has moved some distance).
Tumour buds. Many tumours exhibit focally invasive cell clusters, also known as
tumour buds. Their proliferation rate is less than that of cells in the main turnout'.
We propose that tumour buds contain cells that have not yet completed epithdial-
to.meserichymal transition and therefore they proliferate slower.
Single versus cluster migration. Ref. 82 found that circulating cancer cells can
travel in clusters of 2-50 cells, and that such clusters can initiate metastatic foci.
They report that approximately one-half of the metastatic foci they examined were
initiated by single circulating cancer cells, and that circulating cancer cell dusters
initiated the other half. The authors also note that the cells forming a duster are
probably neighbouring cancer cells from the primary tumour. This means that the
genetic make-up of cells within a newly established lesion will be very similar.
regardless of its origin (single cell versus a small cluster of cells). Therefore, the
ability to travel in clusters should not affect the genetic heterogeneity or regrowth
probability as compared to single-cell dispersal from our modeL
Angiogenesis. We do not explicitly model angiogenesis for two reasons. First.
most genetic alterations that can either change the growth rate or be detected
experimentally must occur at early stages of tumour growth as explained before.
Hence, the genetic make-up of the tumour is determined primarily by what
happens before angiogenesis. Second, local dispersal from the model mimics
tumour cells interspersing with the vascularized tissue and getting better access
to nutrients, which is one of the outcomes of angiogenesis.
@2015 Macmillan Publishers Limited. AU rights reserved
EFTA00603741
RESEARCH LETTER
Biomechanics of tumours. Growth is affected by the mechanical properties of
cells and the extracellular matrix. We do not explicitly include biomechanics (see,
however, below). in contrast to more realistic models"". as this would not allow us
to simulate lesions larger than about 1 X 106 cells. Instead, we take experimentally
determined values for birth and death rates. values that are affected by biomecha-
nics. as the parameters of our model.
Isolated balls of cells. In our simulations. balls of cells are thought to be separated
by normal, vascularized tissue which delivers nutrients to the tumour. The envir-
onment of each ball is the same. and there are no interactions between the balls
other than mechanical repulsion. This represents a convenient mathematical con-
trivance and qualitatively recapitulates what is observed in stained sections of
actual tumours (Fig. la). We investigated under which circumstances the balls
of cancer cells would mechanically repel each other. see Extended Data Fig. 7 for a
graphical summary of the results. We simulated a biomechanical, off-lattice model
of normal tissue composed of 'ducts' lined with epithelial cells and separated by
stroma (Supplementary Information. section 8). Mechanical interactions between
cells were modelled using an approach similar to that described previously'". "s
with model parameters taken from refs 59, 60.85-88. We assumed cancer cells to
be of epithelial origin. as are most cancers". Cancer cells that invaded different
areas of epithelium grew into balls that remained separated by thin slices of stroma
(Supplementary Videos 8-11). This 'encapsulation' of tumour microlesions was
possible owing to the supportive nature of stroma that is able to mechanically resist
expansion of balls of cancer cells. Encapsulation is essential if the balls are to repel
each other. If the tissue is 'fluidized' by random replication and death. the balk
quickly merge (Supplementary Video 12). Another important factor are differ-
ences in mechanical properties of tumour and normal cells": it is known that
differences in cdlular adhesion and stiffness promote segregation of different types
of cells",.
In reality. mkrolesions within the primary tumour are less symmetric and some
of them are better described as 'protrusions bulging out from the main tumour
tissue, owing to biomechanical instabilities: see. for example, refs 93.94. However,
stroma may still provide enough spatial separation. and the capillary network of
blood vessels—either due to tumour angiogenesis or preexisting in the invaded
tissue—may provide enough nutrients to the lesions so that our assumption of
independently growing balls of cells remains valid. Therefore, we believe that
modelling the tumour as a collection of non- or weakly-interacting microksions
is essentially correct. We also note that the existence of isolated balls is not neces-
sary to explain our qualitative results: reduced heterogeneity and increased growth
in the presence of migration. Supplementary Video 13 shows that even if the tissue
is homogeneous and highly dynamical and there are no isolated balls of cells,
migration leads to a considerable speedup of growth as compared to the case with
no migration (Supplementary Video 14).
Tumour geometry and heterogeneity in the absence of driver mutations.
Supplementary Videos 2 and 3 illustrate the process of growth of a tumour with
maximally N= 107 cells, for Af = 0 and Af = l0"". respectively, and for d = 0.5.
Extended Data Fig. 2 shows snapshots from a single simulation for M = 0,
N— 10'. and d = 0 (no death. Extended Data Fig. 2a) and d = 0.9 (Extended
Data Fig. 2b). In the latter case. cells are separated by empty sites (normal cells/
extracellular matrix). Extended Data Fig. 2c shows that the tumour is almost
spherically symmetric for Af = 0. The symmetry is lost for small but non-zero
Af, and restored for larger M when the balk become smaller and their number
increases. Extended Data Fig. 2c also shows that metastatic tumours contain many
donal sectors with passenger mutations. Extended Data Fig. 8a shows that the
fraction G(r) of genetic alterations that are the same in two randomly sampled cells
(Fig. 4) separated by distance r quickly decreases with r. indicating increased
genetic heterogeneity owing to passenger mutations.
Targeted therapy of metastatic lesions. Models of cancer treatments" "° often
assume either no spatial structure or do not model the emergence of resistance. We
assume that the cell that initiated the lesion was sensitive to treatment but its
progeny may become resistant. Before the therapy commences. all cells have the
same birth and death rates. but after the treatment resistant cells continue to
proliferate with the same rate, whereas susceptible cells are assigned different rates
as described above. Resistant cells can emerge before and during the therapy. The
death rate of sensitive cells during treatment is greater than the birth rate. or the
tumours would not be sensitive to the drug. For example. in Fig. 3 treatment
increases the death rate and decreases the growth rate of susceptible cells, the
growth rate of resistant cells after therapy is identical to that of the sensitive cells
before treatment. d = 0.5b in the absence of treatment. elf = I0 6, and treatment
begins when the tumour has N= 10' cells.
Note that our model assumes the drug is uniformly distributed in the tumour":
it is known that drug gradients can speed up the onset of resistance'.
Supplementary Video 1 and Extended Data Fig. 4a show that. since the
process of resistance acquisition is stochastic. some tumours regrow after an initial
regression, and some do not. If only resistant cells can migrate, regrowth is faster
(Extended Data Fig. 4b, c). Extended Data Fig. 4d-g shows regrowth probabilities
P,,,,,„„th for different treatment scenarios not mentioned in the main text. depend-
ing on whether the drug is cytostatic (bite„,tr,„„, = 0) o cytocidal
= b).
and whether d = 0 or d>0 before treatment. In Extended Data Fig. 4d, cells
replicate and die only on the surface. and the core is 'quiescent' —cells are still
alive there but cannot replicate unless outer layers are removed by treatment
(Supplementary Videos 6 and 7). Pitp.0.0 does not depend on the dispersal prob-
ability Af at all. and is close to 100% for N> 108 cells. a size that is larger than for
d > 0 (Extended Data Fig. 40. It can be shown that P,,,,„,„h = 1 — exp(-7,4
Extended Data Fig. 4e is for the cytostatic drug (Oh...um=
= 0): this is
also equivalent to the eytocidal dnig if the tumour has a necrotic core (cells are dead
but still occupy physical volume). In this case,
increases with Af because
more resistant cells are on the surface for larger M (cells can replicate only on the
surface in this scenario). Extended Data Fig. 4f. g shows models with cell death
present even in the absence of treatment (d = 0.9b) but occurring only at the
surface. unlike in Fig. 3 where cells also die inside the tumour. Death increases
owing to a larger number of cellular division necessary to obtain the same
size and hence more opportunities to mutate.
Relaxing the assumptions of the model. Figure 4 shows that even a small fitness
advantage substantially reduces genetic diversity through the process of donal
expansion, see also Supplementary Videos 4 and S. We now demonstrate that this
also applies to modified versions of the model, proving its robustness.
Exact values of Mend s has no qualltathv effect. Extended Data Fig. 8b, e shows
that the average number of shared genetic alterations is larger in the presence of
drivers also in the case of non-zero dispersal (elf >0), and its numerical value is
almost the same as for M = 0 (Fig.4). Extended Data Fig. 8c. f shows that as long as
s> 0 and regardless of its exact value, driver mutations reduce genetic diversity in
the tumour compared to the case s = 0. Extended Data Fig. Sa-c shows how many
driver mutations are expected to be present in a randomly chosen cell from a
tumour that is Tyears old. Neither dispersal nor the way drivers affect growth (via
birth or death rate) has a significant effect on the number of drivers per cell
(Extended Data Fig. 56. c). A small discrepancy visible in Extended Data Fig. 5b
is caused by a slightly asymmetric way death and birth is treated in our model, see
the Supplementary Information.
Model B. Cells replicate with constant rate if there is at least one empty neighbour.
In the absence of drivers, genetic alterations are distributed evenly throughout the
lesion (Extended Data Fig. 6b) but they often occur independently and the number
of frequent genetic alterations is low (Extended Data Fig. 6e). Drivers cause clonal
expansion as in model A.
Model C. Cells replicate regardless of whether there are empty sites surrounding
them or not. When a cell replicates, it pushes away other cells towards the surface
(Supplementary Information). Extended Data Fig. bc,e shows that this again leads
to clonal expansion which decreases diversity.
Model D. Replication/death occurs only on the surface and the core of the tumour
is static Extended Data Fig. 6d shows that driver mutations cannot spread to the
other side of the lesion and conical clonal sectors can be seen even for s> 0. The
number of frequent genetic alterations is the same fors = 0 and s = 1%, indicating
that genetic heterogeneity is not lowered by clonal expansion. This demonstrates
that cell turnover inside the tumour is very important for reducing heterogeneity.
To obtain the same (low) heterogeneity as for models a-c, the probability of driver
mutations must be much larger in model D (Extended Data Fig. 60.
Drivers affecting M. We investigated three scenarios in which drivers affect
(1) only the dispersal probability Al—, (1 + q)M. in which q> 0 is the 'migration
fitness advantage (no change in b, d), (2) both Af and 4 that is, (d.AO—
(d(1—s).(1+q)115) with s, q > 0, (3) either Al or d. with probability 1/2.
Extended Data Fig. 3c shows that growth is unaffected in cases (1, 3) compared
to the neutral case. For (2) the tumour growth rate increases significantly when the
tumour is larger than N= I X 106 cells. This shows that migration increases the
overall fitness advantage. in line with ref. 102. which shows that fixation probabil-
ity is determined by the product of the exponential growth rate and diffusion
constant (motility) of organisms.
Six-site (von Neumann) neighbourhood. We simulated a model in which each
cell has only six neighbours (von Neumann neighbourhood) instead of 26(Moore
neighbourhood). Extended Data Fig. 9 compares models A and C for the two
neighbourhoods and show that there is only a small quantitative difference in the
growth curves for model A (model C is unaffected), but that the shape of the ball of
cells deviates more from the spherical one for the six-site neighbourhood. see also
section 7 in the Supplementary Information.
31.
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LETTER RESEARCH
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4.2015 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved
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RESEARCH LETTER
a
b
1 .......
2
II-
........ - . . ..........
Xi a X1 +
overlap
overlap
growth
reduction
reduction
C
Parameter
Meaning
Value
References
b
Birth rate
In 2 a 0.69 days.,
Thiswork
d
Death rate
Selective advantage
0 ... 0.1 (0 ... 10%)
Thiswork
This week
7
Mutation probability (all GAS)
0.02 C)
18.66.67.681
7e
Mutation probab.11ty (driversonly)
4.10-50
(8.66.67.681
7,
M
Mutation peobablety (resistance-
carrying mutations)
104
(8,66,67,68]
Dispersal probability
0... 10-4
This work
Extended Data Figure 1 I Details of the model. a. A sketch showing how
dispersal is implemented: (1) A ball of cells of radius R„ in which the centre
is at X,. is composed of tumour cells and normal cells (blue and empty squares
in the zoomed-in rectangle (2)). A cell at position x, with respect to the centre
of the ball attempts to replicate (3). If replication is successful, the cell
migrates with probability M and creates a new microlesion (4). The position X.,
of this new ball of cells is determined as the endpoint of the vector that starts
at X, and has direction x, and length R,. b. Overlap reduction between the
balls of cells. When a growing ball begins to overlap with another ban (red), they
arc both moved apart along the line connecting their centres of mass (green
line) by as much as necessary to reduce the overlap to zero. The process is
repeated for all overlapping balls as many times as needed until there is no
overlap. c. Summary of all parameters used in the model. If. for a given
parameter, many different values have been used in different plots, a range of
values used is shown. Birth and death rates can also depend on the number
of driver mutations, see Methods. Asterisk, parameter estimated from other
quantities available in the literature.
(NOM Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved
EFTA00603744
LETTER
a
b
ita
wito
time T
Otte.
M=0
M=1O'
M=106
M=104
Extended Data Figure 2 1Simulation snapshots. a, b, A few snapshots of
tumour growth for no dispersal, and d = 0 (a) and d = 0.96 (b). To visua0ze
clonal sectors, cells have been colour-coded by making the colour a
heritabk trait and changing each of its RGB components by a small random
fraction whenever a cell mutates. The initial cell is grey. Empty space (white)
arc non-cancer cells mixed with extracellular matrix. Note that images arc not
to scale. c, Tumour shapes for N= I X 10', d = 0.96. and different dispersal
probability M. Images not to scale, the tumour for M = I X 10-5 is larger
than the one for M = 0.
.C.2015 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved
EFTA00603745
RESEARCH LETTER
a
10'
1000
5
10
50
T [months)
10'
8
N 10
2 1000
10
100
5
10
Extended Data Figure 31 Tumour size as a function of time. a, Growth of
a tumour without dispersal (M = 0), for d = 0.85. For large times (7), the
number of cells grows approximately as const X T 3. The tumour reaches size
N = 1 X 10' cells (horizontal line) after about 100 months (8 years) of growth.
b, The same data are plotted in the linear scale, with N replaced by 'linear
extension' N1fd. c, Tumour size versus time when drivers affect the dispersal
probability. In all cases, d= 0.95, and (1. black) drivers increase the dispersal
rate tenfold (q = 9) but have no effect on the net growth rate (2, red)
b
1000
800
600
400
200
0
20
40
60
80
100
T [months]
-
15 20 25 30 35
T [motel
drivers increase both the net growth rate (s = 10%) and At (3. green) drivers
either (with probability 1/2) increase Al tenfold (q = 9) or increase the net
growth rate by s = 10%; (4. blue) drivers increase only the net growth rate by
s = 1094 and (5, black dashed line) neutral case with M = 1 X 10-7. which is
indistinguishable from (1). In all cases (1-3) the initial dispersal probability
M= I X 10-7. PointsLeEesent average value over 40-100 simulations per data
point, error bars are =.
g..2015 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved
EFTA00603746
LETTER
RESEARCH
a
10'
10'
10''
a 1000
100
10
d
-150-100 -50 0
50 100 150
T (days)
100
eo
60
g 40
20
0
104
10' 10'
107
N (cells)
los
b
d' woo
10D
10
e
100
80
60
'2 40
O
20
-150 -100 -50
0
T 'days)
50
100
-150-100 -50 0
50 100 150
la vs 106 10' ioe 10
N (cells)
Extended Data Figure 4 I Simulation of targeted therapy. a-c, The total
number of cells in the tumour (black) and the number or resistant cells (red)
versus time, during growth (T< 0) and treatment (T> 0), for —100
independent simulations, for d = 0.56 for T <0. Therapy begins when
= I X 106 cells. After treatment, many tumours die out (N decreases to zero)
but those with resistant cells will regrow sooner or later. a. M = 0 for all cells at
all times. b, M = 0 for all cells for T < 0 and M = 10-4 for resistant cells for
T> 0. c, M = 0 for non-resistant and M = 10-5 for resistant cells at all times. In
all three cases, P
II, is very similar. 36 t 5% (mean ± M.) (a), 25 ± 4%
(b),and 27 ± 6%for (c).d-g. Regrowth probability for four treatment scenarios
not discussed in the main text. Data points correspond to three dispersal
probabilities: M = 0 (red), M = I X 10-5 (green), and M= I X 10-4 (blue).
f
1000
100
10
N (cells)
9
T (days)
100
d=0.9b
80
•
'
60
I
40
II
0:
it
20
I I
• i I l
70'
los 106 101 10
N
The probability is plotted as a function of tumour size N just before the therapy
commences. d, Before treatment, cells replicate only on the surface. Cells in
the core arequiescent and do not replicate. Therapy kills cells on the surface and
cells in the core resume proliferation when liberated by treatment. e, As in
d, but drug is cytostatk and does not kill cells but inhibits their growth. The
results for Pwp,,,,a, arc identical if the drug is cytotoxic and the tumour has a
necrotic core (cells die inside the tumour and cannot replicate even if the
surface is removed). f. Before treatment, cells replicate and die on the surface.
The core is quiescent Therapy kills cells on the surface (cytotoxic drug).
g„ As in f, but therapy only inhibits growth (c)tostatic drug). In all cases
(d-g) error bars represent =
from 8-1,000 simulations per point.
(g2015 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved
EFTA00603747
RESEARCH LETTER
a 2O
'§ 1.5
k 1.0
e 0.5
0.0
d
40
.8 3°
20
10
0 0
1
2
3
drivers per cell
e
if
•
11
I
I
if
i II
1%
I
I
li
s 2%
I
I I
il
tP5%
I
II
kilt.i. I.
Ill
2
4
6
T (years]
8
4
b
4
Extended Data Figure 5 I Accumulation of driver and passenger genetic
alterations. a-c, The number of drivers per cell in the primary tumour lotted
as a function of time (10-100 simulations per point, error bars denote =.).
a, M = 0 and three different driver selective advantages. For s = 1%, cells
accumulate on average one driver mutation within 5 years. The time can be
significantly lower for very strong drivers (s> 1%). b,The rateat which drivers
accumulate depends mainly on their selective advantage and not on whether
13
ka
11
I;
drivers
affect d,
drivers
,Iird
affect b, aw
e
s=1%
2.5-
4 2.0
k 1.5-
I 1.o
.5=1%
aerie
2 4 6 8 10
0
T (years)
40
130
a20
if: 10
0 0
1
2
4
6 8
T (years]
2
3
drivers per eel
4
they affect death or birth rate. c, Dispersal does not affect the rate of driver
accumulation. d e, The number of passenger mutations (PMs) per cell versus
the number of driver mutations per cell. More passenger mutations arc present
for smaller driver selective advantage (d). and this is independent of the
dispersal probability M (e) in the regime of small M. Data points correspond to
independent simulations.
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EFTA00603748
LETTil=
e
a
Roclicaban terrpty space
Repliczem'O it spaces0
0.5
a
b
c
d •
f
A
Extended Data Figure 61 Genetic diversity in a single lesion for different
models. a-d. Representative simulation snapshots, with genetic alterations
colour-coded as in Fig. 4. Tops = O. bottoms = I%.a, Model A from the main
text in which cells replicate with rates proportional to the number of empty
nearby sites. b, Model B, the replication rate is constant and non-zero if there is
at least one empty site nearby. and zero otherwise. c, Model C. cells replicate at a
constant rate and push away other cells to make space for their progeny.
d. Model D. cells replicatehlk only on the surface, the interior of the tumour
d
Suglace proAthrdearn
C
Conslent cep .:.v.pon tale
r
('necrotic core') is static. In all cases, N = I X 10', d = 0.996. e. Number of
genetic alterations present in at least 50% of cells for identical parameters as
in a-d. In all cases except surface growth (d). drivers inaease genetic
homogeneity, as measured by the number of most frequent genetic alterations.
Results averaged over 50-100 simulations error bars denote-. f, Model D.
with yd = 2 X I0-4 instead of 4 X 10-5, that is. drivers occur five times
more often. In this case, driver mutations arise earlier than in d. and the
tumour becomes more homogeneous.
O2015 Macmillan Publishers Limited. AEI rights reserved
EFTA00603749
LETTER
a
Parameter
9
Ese
Es
Meaning
Length of the simulation box
Cell diameter
Elongation speed
Dynamic viscosity of the intracellular fluid
Young modulus of epithelialkancer cells
Young modulus of stroma
Poisson's ratio
Cell-cell adhesion energy
Value
400-800 µm
10 um()
0.208 [p.m/h1(1)
2.108 Pas
1 kPa ()
1 kPa (4)
1/3 ()
200 µl/ma ()
References
This work
[59.60.861
This work
[86)
[86)
[87, 881
[69,60,861
[861
e
.
•
•
•
.•
t
• •.•
•
•
•
•
4 c. f.
I
'
r
•
•
.
p•
T.3600 days
• ,
I
4
,
. •••
$
i.
Extended Data Figure 71 The off-lattice model. a, Summary of all
parameters used in the modeL Asterisk typical value, varies between different
types of tissues; dagger symbol, equivalent to 24 h minimal doubling time;
double dagger symbol, based on the assumption that macroscopic elastic
properties of tissues such as liver, pancreases or mammary glands are primarily
determined by the elastic properties of stroma. b, Simulation snapshot of a
normal tissue before the invasion of cancer cells. c, Two balls of cancer cells in
• - •
A.C>0
•
•
•
• n
4•••?..
-
,
P.
•
•
•
•
b
d
I '
i
1 .
S,.
two nearby ducts repel each other as they grow as a consequence of mechanical
forces exerted on each other. d, The balls coalesce if growth is able to break
the separating extracellular matrix. e, If the balls arc not encapsulated,
they quickly merge. 1, Isolated balls of cells are not required to speed up growth;
migration (left) can cause the tumour to expand much faster even if
individual microlesions merge together. as opposed to the case with no
migration (right).
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EFTA00603750
LETTER RESEARCH
a
—1
v.-
2
tic'>
b
100
40
20
0.0
C
M=10-7
s=1%
s=0%. d=0.99b
0.5 1.0
1.5
2.0
rkr>
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
recta
Extended Data Figure 8I Genetic diversity quantified. a:rumours are much
more genetically heterogeneous in the absence of driver mutations (s = 0) (see
Fig. 4). The plot shows the fraction G(r) of genetic alterations (GAs) shared
between the cells as function of their separation (distance r) in the tumour. The
fraction quickly decreases with increasing r. The distance in the figure is
normalized by the average distance <r> between any two cells in the tumour.
For a spherical tumour. <r> is approximately equal to half of the tumour
diameter. b, Fraction of shared genetic alterations for s = 1% and s = 0%.
at.
2.5 30
d
0.4
12 0.3
P o
rig 0.2
g
0.1
1
g
2.
g
g
3.51
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
6
f
3.0
g 0 2.5
2.0
1.5
c
1.0
0.5
N= 1 X 107, and Al = I X 10-7.1n the presence of drivers. G(r) decays slower.
indicating more homogeneous tumours. c, The exact value of the selective
advantage of driver mutations is not important (all curves G(r) look the same,
except for s = 0) as long as s> 0. d-f, Number of genetic alterations present
in at least 50% of cells for identical parameters as in a-c. correspondingly.
Drivers substantially increase the level of genetic homogeneity. In all panels
the results have been averaged over 30-100 simulations, with error bars
as=
4.2015 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved
EFTA00603751
RESEARCH LETTER
a
to
a 10
100
100
10
C
5
10
50 100
T (days)
Model A. d=0 95b. s=514
10
100
1000
T [days)
Extended Data Figure 91 Growth curves for the 26-nearest neighbours
(26n, red curves) and the 6-nearest neighbours (6n, green curves) models.
a, Model A (as in the main text), no death. The tumour grows about twice as
slow in the 6ta model Pictures show tumour snapshots for both models:
there is no visible difference in the shape. b, Model A, death d = 0.8b. The
additional blue curve is for the 6n model, with modified replication probability
to account for missing neighbours as explained in the Supplementary
Information. c, Model A. with death d= 0.95b. and drivers s = 5%. There is
tl
Model A. d=0.9b J1
d
10
100
1000
T [days)
Model C. no death
to.
10
15
20
25
T [days)
very little difference in the growth curves between the 6n and 26n models. A
small asymmetry in the shape is caused by faster-growing cells with driver
mutations.d. ModetC(exponentialgrowth).Growth is thc same in both 6nand
26n models, but the shape is more asphcric for the Si model. This is
probably caused by shifting cells along the coordinate axes and not along the
shortest path to the surface when making space for new cells. All plots show
the mean (average over 50-100 simulations) and M.
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EFTA00603752
LE1011=3
Extended Data Table 1 I Experimental results for the percentage of proliferating cells in the centre versus the edge of solid tumours
Edge
Center
Ratio
center:edge
p-value
Case
Tumor type
Images
KI %
Total no. of
cells
Images
Kr %
Total no. of
cells
1
Chromophobe
8
3.46
1013
3
1.11
2561
0.32
0.05
RCC
2
Chromophobe
5
3.07
508
3
1.05
938
0.34
0.28
RCC
3
Chromophobe
5
2.63
524
3
0.44
697
0.17
0.03
ROC
4
Chromophobe
7
1.58
581
2
0.53
958
0.34
0.17
RCC
5
HCC
7
17.14
892
2
9.74
1637
0.57
0.05
6
HCC
7
51.71
1079
4
32.84
2562
0.64
0.03
7
HCC
6
47.37
435
3
19.97
1397
0.42
0.09
6
HCC
7
19.02
895
4
13.78
1191
0.72
0.35
9
HCC
6
15.09
1074
3
11.98
1094
0.79
0.33
10
HCC
9
29.84
1305
2
20.87
2457
0.70
022
Summary
1.4
Chromophobe
25
2.69
11
0.81
0.30
0.00002
RCC
5-10
HCC
42
30.0
18
19.1
0.64
0.007
A reprteentalive section leech tunas was labelled to the wale/atm/ marter ise OM end mage or the temou et the leering edge end the centre were acquired es descroed (klatnOCIS) Psettestion is
merseSlyincreesee et the larding ear arwl this is stalistically similar/ (Summar% gremegaar-Sm mem two-same* note. /35). The .101 Oft reboot the number d preareretng cells in me realest the
edge 40.50 fronts0.17-07% HCC.Ms/alocelluler carcinoma RCC. renelan artisan.
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