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WEDBUSH
Equity
Research
Financial Technology
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Bitcoin Investment Trust (GBTC)
Renewed Interest by Large Financial Institutions and Media;
Reiterating OUTPERFORM and Raising BTC Price Target to
$600
• We believe bitcoin and its associated blockchain technology have the
potential to disrupt the existing financial infrastructure over the next several
years, and believe the value of the bitcoin currency (BTC) will benefit from
this trend. Please see our GBTC initiation report here.
• We believe the value of bitcoin has started moving up recently as broad
positive media coverage (page 3) has started to sway sentiment.
• Large financial institutions continue to invest and investigate uses of bitcoin
and its underlying technologies (e.g. Blockchain) at an increasing pace (p4).
• We believe that Blockchain is to Bitcoin as Intranet is to Internet. We believe
there may be some applications that narrowly use a distributed ledger without a
valuable native token, but those will end up being a small part of the solutions the
technology creates. We believe the reason financial institutions are insisting on
-Blockchain not Bitcoin" is for internal and regulatory compliance. We expect that
even the narrow solutions leveraging only a distributed ledger will end up being
anchored on the bitcoin blockchain sooner or later.
• We continue to observe consistent transaction growth, especially from
applications such as remittance and multi-signature (pages 5.6). We are also
witnessing an increase in payment fees over time, which should help supplant
bitcoin issuing as the revenue source for the transaction processors running the
bitcoin network.
• We detail our valuation framework on pages 7-9 to arrive at our target of
$600/BTC ($60/GBTC) - we employ a supply/demand methodology based on
utilization of future applications. With bitcoin supply mostly predetermined, we
estimate bitcoin applications' large and growing addressable market, anticipate an
inflection point of bitcoin application adoption 5-10 years out and apply a high
discount rate to account for uncertainty.
• Reiterate OUTPERFORM rating and raising our GBTC price target to $60
(equivalent to $600/BTC) from $40 based on less conservative supply
assumptions. The main change to our model is a higher proportion of dormant or
held-for-investment bitcoin.
• Risks to our price target include the fact that BTC could very well go to zero due to
lack of cash flow, increased government regulations, lack of consumer adoption,
rise of superior alternative crypto currency, failure of the protocol, and cyber hacks.
November 4, 2015
Price
$52.00
Rating
OUTPERFORM
12-Month Price Target
$60
Gil Luria
(from $40)
s LAI
I I. E
Company Information
Shares Outst (M)
Market Cap (B)
52-Wk Range
1.382.0
$71.8
$21.22 - $55.00
Shares Oust - BTC(M)
14,800
Market Cap - BTC (B)
$7,152
Company Description
The Bitcoin Investment Trust (BIT) is a
private, open-ended trust that is invested
exclusively in bitcoin and derives its value
solely from the price of bitcoin. BIT was
launched
in
2013
by
Grayscale
Investments, a wholly-owned subsidiary of
Digital Currency Group.
Source: Thomson Reuters
Wedbush Securities does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors
should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors
should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Please see page 10 of this
report for analyst certification and important disclosure information.
EFTA00605996
WEDBUSH
Risks to Bitcoin
Future risks that may face bitcoins, the Shares' underlying asset. may be:
•
Bitcoin does not generate any cash flow.
•
Changes in global bitcoin demand, by changing levels of acceptance by merchants and consumers, may adversely affect
market pricing of bitcoins.
•
Cyber theft of bitcoins by or from online bitcoin wallet providers, or theft from individual bitcoin wallets.
•
Monetary policies of central banks and governments may impose risk by trade restriction or currency revaluation, possibly
having adverse effects on bitcoin market pricing.
•
Increased competition from other payment technologies, services, or forms of crypto currency.
•
The maintenance and development of the open-source software protocol of the Bitcoin Network.
Risks to GBTC Shares
Future risks that may face the Trust, and its Shares. may be:
•
Regulatory changes that may change the way BIT operates in regards to the way the Shares are traded on its designated
exchange.
•
Countries curtailing or outlawing trading and/or ownership of bitcoins.
•
Additional expenses incurred by the Trust due to possible future regulatory compliance changes, though the Trust holds the
ability to terminate should these expenses be disadvantageous to investors.
•
Due to the Shares' direct relationship to historically volatile bitcoin market prices, the value of the shares may fluctuate.
•
BIT is a passive investment vehicle: therefore it is not actively managed and is susceptible to losses that may have been
mitigated by active trading.
Disclosures
At the time of publication, Wedbush Securities owns a nominal amount of BTC and has invested in bitcoin-related companies.
Other mandatory disclosures appear in the back of the report.
Gil Luria
Bitcoln Investment Trust 12
EFTA00605997
WEDBUSH
Figure 1: The Economist Print Edition
9610(.: A 124AGESIICIAL RE:PORTON (POMBA
The
Economist
03>and twins0 Males pail
twin %Silo the and el bent
These ever-aeathe aCCOuntiniS
MiSka Lan tIN ISM b
Ceriottec She am typerwedaw
The trust machine
How the technology behind bitcoin
could change the world
e a a ft` 4144%
k
st,
Ai err.r / 4
Source: Wedbush Securities. Inc.
Figure 2: Recent Coverage
Bloomberg
Forbes
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Source: Wedbush Securities, Inc.
[21
WORLD
CONOfrAtt
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AGENDA
E
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We
Gil Luria
Ellteoln Investment Trust 13
EFTA00605998
WEDBUSH
Figure 3: Financial Institutions and Other Corporate Adoption of Bitcoin and Blockchain
Companies inventing in Blockchain Technole
Andreessen tionossiu
043VA
Satiety Ventures
Greylock Patinas
Capital One
Gamma Catalyst Partners
Mosta Ventures
USAA
Visa
Bain Capital %/animas
CIBC
Firstftbrk Capital
Mastercard
New York Lite
Novel TNT
Oak HCIFT
RRE Ventures
Solon Mack Captal
Transamerica Ventures
Goldman Sachs
NYSE
NASDAQ
UBS
Cid
Barclays
Wecturh
CME
Investigating Blockchain Use Cases
BNY !Arlon
IBM
US Federal Re
Samsung
Santander
PayPal/Bnuntree
Stripe
NCR
Square
Intuit
First Data
Global Payments
Toshiba. VisualTouch
Companies scceptmq Sitcom') payments
Microsoft
Del
Untied Way
Wikipedia
WoMpress
Expodia
Dish
Overstock
American Red Cross
Time Magazine
Monila
Nenvegg
Redd,
Soundcloud
Zynga
Subway (very few)
Vrgh Galactic
Sacramenlo Kings
Tiger Direct
Chicago Sun-limes
OKCupid
Rakuferi (via SLOSicliasy Rakmen Super Lo9stics)
OpenSSL
Khan Academy
Source: Wedbush Securities, Inc.
Gil Luria
Bitcoin Investment Trust i 4
EFTA00605999
WEDBUSH
Figure 4: Monthly Bitcoin Transactions
5,000,000.00
4,000,000.00
3,000,000.00
2,000,000.00
1,000,000.00
0.00 uni 1)11111111111
I Ill
U1
Ill
Ill
Ill
ct 2.
O
c
m
ct
,t k i
c
—ogc—O-c-O
Source: BIockchain.info, Wedbush Securities, Inc.
Figure 5:
Pantera Capital Portfolio Companies Growth Rates
Blockchaln Cross-Border Payments Volume 7x VTD,
BM Payments II x YTD
2,000
1.600
1.200
800
400
0
C mpa y
—
Company 2
Company 3
Index (Companies 1-3)
Source: Pantera Capital, Wedbush Securities, Inc.
Gil Luria
BIteoln Investment Trust 15
EFTA00606000
WEDBUSH
Figure 6: BitGo Transaction Volume
BitGo's Transaction Volume
IS in MTh
2,000
:1,600
:1,200
0 800
u 400
0
I
Q2'15
Source: BitGo. Wedbush Securities. Inc.
Figure 7: Average Fee per Transaction
I
0.0003
0.00025
0.0002
0.00015
0.0001
0.00005
0
Average Fee per Transaction - 7 day average
t•
la
S
\\.
%.t.
V..
S
\N
\yerS
s$
est,
0'
4°
9
19
1s tg2
e
7
P.2
Source: Wedbush Securities. Inc.
Gil Luria
ITheoln Investment Trust 16
EFTA00606001
WEDBUSH
Valuation
Our approach is to use a commodity-like valuation that values each BTC as a 'packet' in limited supply that fuels the bitcoin network.
The more the bitcoin network is utilized for current and future applications, the more demand for the packet. By aggregating the
utilization of the various applications (Figure 1) we arrive at our $600 BTC price target which translates to $60 per share of GBTC.
We start with the supply which is predetermined by the bitcoin software to create new 'shares" in order to compensate the network
node operators (i.e. miners). Of those, the relevant portion is the portion neither dormant nor held for investment. Those bitcoin cannot
support economic activity and are therefore excluded from the relevant supply. We expect that proportion to fall in proportion as
economic activity picks up and the number of bitcoin available to support applications to grow.
We then look at the four current applications for bitcoin — online payments, remittance, micro transactions and "banking" for the
unbanked — as well as a catch all other category that includes black market activity and any other future application such as machine to
machine (Internet of Things) and anchoring other blockchains.
For each of these applications we attempt to forecast demand by looking at the total addressable volumes and potential share bitcoin
can achieve over the next 10 years. For micro transactions we use the total intemet advertising market as a proxy for the size of the
opportunity, considering the possibility direct monetization of content will help supplant the intemet advertising model. We assume in
our forecasts 10.20% bitcoin penetration for all these various opportunities by 2025.
In order to assess the amount of bitcoin required to support this level of activity we apply different levels of velocity. For example, if a
consumer replenishes their bitcoin wallet every month that would equate to 12x annual velocity for their bitcoin. We apply velocity levels
ranging from 5.5 for unbanked and other applications (current velocity of bitcoin) and 12 times for payments and remittance.
The ultimate calculation takes the total bitcoin required to support these applications in 2025 divided by the number of bitcoin available
for economic activity discounted to the current period by a discount rate. We use a very high 40% discount rate to illustrate the
uncertainty regarding these outcomes ten years out.
Figure 8: Bitcoin Supply Largely Predetermined
2014A
2015E
2020E
2025E
Total Bitcoin in Circulation (End of Year)
13.125.000
15.000.000
18.410,000
20.343.750
% of total
71.43%
87.67%
96.88%
Held for investment or Dormant %
50%
50%
41%
33%
Held as Working Capital %
50%
50%
60%
67%
Bitcoin Available for Transactions
6.562.500
7.500.000
10.953,950 Ifr1=111
Source: Wedbush Securities. Inc.
Figure 9: Large and Growing Addressable Market
S Billion
2014A
2015E
2020E
2025E
Online Payments
1.500
1.725
3,379
5.955
Remittances
435
457
583
744
Micro Transactions
540
567
724
924
Unbanked
4,305
4.435
5,141
5.960
Other
1.829
1.902
2.314
2.816
Total
8,609
9.086
12,141
16.398
Growth Rates
Online Payments
15%
12%
12%
Remittances
5%
5%
5%
Micro Transactions
5%
5%
5%
Unbanked
3%
3%
3%
Other
4%
4%
4%
Source: Wedbush Securities. Inc.
Bitcoin Investment Trust 7
Gil Luria
EFTA00606002
WEDBUSH
Figure 10: Expect Market Share "Hockey Stick" 5-10 Years Out
Bitcoin Share
Online Payments
0.02%
0.04%
1.35%
10.00%
Remittances
0.01%
0.03%
2.16%
20.00%
Micro Transactions
0.01%
0.03%
2.16%
20.00%
Unbanked
0.001%
0.003%
0.73%
10.00%
Other
0.01%
0.02%
0.64%
10.00%
Capacity Supported by Bitcoin
Online Payments
$
0.32 S
0.7 $
45.6 $
595.5
Remittances
$
0.04 $
0.1 $
12.6 $
148.8
Micro Transactions
$
0.05 $
0.2 $
15.6 $
184.7
Unbanked
$
0.04 $
0.1 $
37.5 $
596.0
Other
$
0.18 $
0.4 $
14.8 $
281.6
Total
$
0.64 $
1.5 $
126.1 $
1.806.6
Assumed Annual Velocity
Online Payments
12
12
12
12
Remittances
12
12
12
12
Micro Transactions
12
12
12
12
Unbanked
6
6
6
6
Other
6
6
6
6
Bitcoin Monetray Base Required
Online Payments
$
0.03 $
0.06 $
3.80 $
49.63
Remittances
$
0.00 $
0.01 $
1.05 $
12.40
Micro Transactions
$
0.00 $
0.01 $
1.30 $
15.39
Unbanked
$
0.01 S
0.02 $
6.81 $
108.36
Other
$
0.03 S
0.07 $
2.69
S
51.19
Total BTC Monetary Base Required
S
0.08 S
0.18
S
15.66
S
236.97
Source: Wedbush Securities. Inc.
Figure 11: High Discount Rate to Account for Uncertainty
Year
0
5
10
Bitcoin S Monetary Base Required
Bltcolns Available for Transactions
$12
$24
$1,429
S17.473
BTC Price
$462
11/4/2015
Excess Value Based on Future Demand
$450
PV SUSI:VE(7C
$604
Discount Rate
40%
Source: Wedbush Securities. Inc.
Gil Luria
Bitcoin Investment Trust 18
EFTA00606003
WEDBUSH
Figure 12: Full Valuation Framework
2014A
2015E
2016E
2017E
2016E
20196
2020E
2021E
2022E
2023E
202E
2025E
rønt Atcan in Orculmixn <End 01 Yeorl
I 12$ COO
1 ,, . , .
18.025400
10656.022
17237.030
17.916000
18.410.022
18.725.003
19.041600
19.357.002
1907.6®
20.343.760
5.00081
7143%
78.31%
79.31%
8232%
8532%
0737%
89.13%
9087%
92.18%
93.75%
9688%
Hee br kneetmeol og Conner4%
50%
50%
45%
K%
44%
42%
41%
39%
38%
36%
35%
33%
Heem Workeg Cephil %
50%
.9'./.,
52%
51%
56%
69%
EO%
01%
63%
64%
06%
07%
°kon kabelt, b Tricesarre
8.582.500
7.500.00
0.333.000
8.994240
9080.720
14392.400
10.9531150
11.422.250
11.900.625
12.388.480
12936.313
13.562563
811on
0011n4 Po)~4.
Eend
Micro Transactons
unbanho4
Other
C62/9329~
Onno PaIngis
gemme-ces
tam Tronsocions
Vnben144
On.r
2014A
mee
20141
20111
201$8
20105
20201
20211
202211
2023E
202E
20261
1.500
1.725
1.964
2.261
2.024
3.017
3.379
3.765
4239
4,747
5.317
5.956
435
467
480
5:4
520
565
563
612
643
675
709
744
540
567
545
825
656
en
724
760
796
830
880
924
4.305
4835
4.568
9766
41156
4.9*
5.141
5295
5.454
5.618
5.795
5360
1.829
1$02
1.978
2.067
2.140
2225
2.314
2407
2.503
2.803
2.707
2.818
15%
15%
15%
15%
15%
12%
12%
12%
12%
12%
12%
5%
5%
5%
5%
5%
5%
5%
5%
5%
5%
5%
5%
5%
5%
5%
5%
5%
5%
5%
5%
5%
5%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
4%
4%
4%
4%
4%
4%
4%
4%
4%
4%
4%
20C4103bar$
OrdnePareres
0.02%
901%
900%
0.17%
0.34%
0.67%
1.35%
2.70%
5.39%
7.0D%
9.00%
1000%
Reennwscos
401%
0.03%
0.09%
0.27%
0.54%
1.08%
2.16%
4.32%
6.64%
1728%
18.50%
2000%
1.8go Trernations
0.01%
00%
0.09%
017%
0.54%
1.08%
2.14%
4.32%
AM%
17.28%
18.50%
200%
uraan1.44
0401%
0.003%
0.01%
0.03%
0.08%
024%
0.73%
1.46%
2.92%
5.83%
7.50%
1000%
OP/.
0.01%
902%
0.04%
0.08%
0.16%
032%
0.64%
1.28%
156%
5.12%
7.50%
1000%
C/99011. Suppol9:00/ &kon
oranoPaynents
$
0.32 $
0.7 $
1.7 $
38 5
88 $
20.3 $
456 5
102.1 $
2236 $
3323 $
478.5 $
5968
Remiltrces
$
0.04 $
«1 3
0.4 5
14 5
20 5
00 5
126 5
28,4 S
654 5
1166 5
131.1 S
148,8
Nicn> Tramacions
$
0.05 5
02 5
0.5 $
1.7 $
3.5 $
7.4 $
15.6 5
328 $
669 $
14413 $
142.7 $
184.2
Vrbetand
$
0.01 $
0.1 $
0.4 5
13 5
3$ 5
121 5
376 5
772 5
1500 5
3276 5
4340 5
330.0
OM«
$
018 s
0.4 f
).13 f
.6 $
4 f
i.t 6
15 $
0.8 6
111 1
8.3 Lse3.1
0,10$
0.40
0,0$
1,65
34
$
14.85
30,0$
64,5$
133,3$
203,1
$
TM.
$
044 $
1.5 5
3,8 5
98 5
22.8 5
S1.0 5
1281 5
2892 5
6711.2 5
1.0546 5
1.409.4 5
124:11.11
Amurnm Arno,' Velwti
CvanoPaynals.
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
Renenes
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
11
Mao itamacions
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
1.kben1.4.4
6
4
6
4
6
6
6
6
6
4
6
6
CM«
6
6
6
4
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
ercøn lltaxaQv Base ~0
«nl ne Parri8
ficinnino5
48,0 TiernacIons
trbonted
0166.
Total BTC 116/01ory Ba* R4.244140
0.03 f
006
0.00
001
0.00 5
001
0.01 f
002
0.03 3
007
008 $
0.18
014 f
032
004 $
«11
0.04 5
014
0.07 $
023
014 $
030
0.44 $
1.10
014
024
0.80
0.71
002
2.61
1.59 $
389
8.Ø
1905 5
2709
39.88
4963
050 $
1115
2.20
463 S
972
10.92
12.40
0.62 5
120
2.74
674 $
12*
13.56
1639
221 $
681
54.61
2692 S
5987
78.90
10826
1.29 5
209
51/0
1165 5
2423
38.92
51.19
6.31 $
15.5
33.00
69.99 5
13121
180.18
23637
2
3
4
6
8
9
10
Bacoln 5 Morwary Base RttrIlf4.71
114coins Anaal» br Tramaakon5
512
524
553
5123
$269
5608
51829
$2896
$5.811
510.758
$13.973
BTC Pno6
5462
11140015
E744,34 Wit., 0490 0, 4440JeCronti
$450
PV 54.160.11TC
C. present vaiun of Se poce pre 131C requmed 10 support the expert«. level el econonvA acermy in 7023
1:44444•4 Rát0
40%
Source: Wedbush Securities, Inc.
M!!!
Gil Lucia
Blteoln Investment Trust i 9
EFTA00606004
WEDBUSH
Analyst Biography
Gil Luria is a Managing Director, Equity Research. covering Financial Technology stocks at Wedbush Securities. He joined Wedbush in
2005 and was previously at Sanford C. Bernstein covering large U.S. telecommunications companies. Prior to that he was a Manager
with Deloitte Consulting focused on telecommunications companies.
Mr. Luria holds a B.A. in Economics from Hebrew University and an M.B.A. from Columbia Business School.
Gil's Edge: Gil relies on bottom-up fundamental analysis building on his deep understanding of technology and its implications for his
companies.
Analyst Certification
I. Gil Luria, Aaron Turner, certify that the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal opinion and that I have not and will not,
directly or indirectly, receive compensation or other payments in connection with my specific recommendations or views contained in this report.
Disclosure intonation regarding historical ratings and price targets is available at
Investment Rating System:
Outperform: Expect the total return of the stock to outperform relative to the median total return of the analyst's (or the analysts team) coverage
universe over the next 6-12 months.
Neutral: Expect the total retum of the stock to perform in-line with the median total retum of the analysts (or the analysts team) coverage
universe over the next 6-12 months.
Underperform: Expect the total retum of the stock to underperform relative to the median total retum of the analysts (or the analyst's team)
coverage universe over the next 6.12 months.
The Investment Ratings are based on the expected performance of a stock (based on anticipated total retum to price target) relative to the
other stocks in the analysts coverage universe (or the analysts team coverage).*
Rating Distribution
(as of September 30, 2015)
Investment Banking Relationships
(as of September 30. 2015)
Outperform: 55%
Neutral: 43%
Underperform: 2%
Outperform:24%
Neutral: 3%
Underperform: 0%
The Distribution of Ratings is required by FINRA rules: however WS' stock ratings of Outperform. Neutral, and Underperform most closely
conform to Buy, Hold, and Sell, respectively. Please note, however, the definitions are not the same as WS' stock ratings are on a relative
basis.
The analysts responsible for preparing research reports do not receive compensation based on specific investment banking activity. The
analysts receive compensation that is based upon various factors including WS' total revenues, a portion of which are generated by WS'
investment banking activities.
Wedbush Equity Research Disclosures as of November 4, 2015
Company
Disclosure
Bitcoin Investment Trust
1
Research Disclosure Legend
1.
WS makes a market in the securities of the subject company.
2.
WS managed a public offering of securities within the last 12 months.
3.
WS co-managed a public offering of securities within the last 12 months.
4.
WS has received compensation for investment banking services within the last 12 months.
5.
WS provided investment banking services within the last 12 months.
6.
WS is acting as financial advisor.
7.
WS expects to receive compensation for investment banking services within the next 3 months.
8.
WS provided non-investment banking securities-related services within the past 12 months.
9.
WS has received compensation for products and services other than investment banking services within the past 12 months.
10.
The research analyst, a member of the research analysts household, any associate of the research analyst, or any individual
directly involved in the preparation of this report has a long position in the common stocks.
11.
WS or one of its affiliates beneficially own 1% or more of the common equity securities.
12.
The analyst maintains Contingent Value Rights that enables him/her to receive payments of cash upon the company's meeting
certain clinical and regulatory milestones.
Gil Luria
Bltcoln Investment Trust 1 10
EFTA00606005
WEDBUSH
Price Charts
Wedbush disclosure price charts are updated within the first fifteen days of each new calendar quarter per FINRA regulations. Price charts for
companies initiated upon in the current quarter, and rating and target price changes occurring in the current quarter, will not be displayed until
the following quarter. Additional information on recommended securities is available on request.
GBTC
1)07/09/15
OUTPERFORM $40
60 -
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re
e, 40-
= a.
cn
're 30
0
20
03
2013
01
02
03
2014
01
02
03
2015
01
02
03
WS changed its rating system from (Strong Buy/Buy/Hold/Sell) to (Out erform/ Neutral/Under erforrn on Jul 14. 2009.
Please access the attached hyperlink for WS' Coverage Universe:
research Applicable disclosure information is also available upon request by contactin Noeth Hin in the Research Department at MM
by
email to
or
You may also submit a written request
to the following: Business Conduct Department.
OTHER DISCLOSURES
The information herein is based on sources that we consider reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The information contained herein is not a
representation by this corporation. nor is any recommendation made herein based on any privileged information. This information is not intended to be
nor should it be relied upon as a complete record or analysis; neither is it an offer nor a solicitation of an offer to sell or buy any security mentioned
herein. This firm, Wedbush Securities, its officers, employees, and members of their families, or any one or more of them, and its discretionary and
advisory accounts. may have a position in any security discussed herein or in related securities and may make, from time to time. purchases or sales
thereof in the open market or otherwise. The information and expressions of opinion contained herein are subject to change without further notice. The
herein mentioned securities may be sold to or bought from customers on a principal basis by this firm. Additional information with respect to the
information contained herein may be obtained upon request.
Gil Luria
Blteoln Investment Trust 111
EFTA00606006
WEDBUSH
EQUITY RESEARCH DEPARTMENT
DIRECTOR OF RESEARCH
Mark D. Benson (~
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Ana &Wax)
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