EFTA00607318.pdf

IPI SALZBURG FORUM 3-5 September 2017 MAPPING THE NEW GEOPOLITICS PRISONERS OF GEOGRAPHY OR LORDS OF THE LAND? PROGRAM NIF #IPISF17 Hotel Schloss Leopoldskron I LeopoldskronstraBe 56.5S 15020 Salzburg Austria EFTA00607318 IPI SALZBURG FORUM 2017 Schloss Leopoldskron, 3-5 September CONCEPT We live in a pivotal moment of international affairs. Globalization and technology are disrupting industrial economies; wars in the Middle East are transforming the region; unprecedented numbers of people are on the move; the European Union has all but lost one of its largest members; and the terrible specter of climate change is becoming all too real as polar ice melts at an alarming rate. A survey of the world reveals tensions all over: On top of the disorder in the Middle East, you have great uncertainty in Europe following Brexit and the continuing conflict in Ukraine. In Asia, you have rising tensions on the Korean Peninsula and in the South China Sea. In Africa, South Sudan and the Lake Chad basin are sites of serious humanitarian concern that transcend national borders. In South America, Venezuela is in the midst of dire political and economic crisis. The list could go on and on. The world is changing rapidly and governments and international organizations are struggling to adapt. How do we understand this new reality? What is changing? And what is not? Do we need new maps to reflect the shifting landscape of geopolitics today? Politics change but geography is constant. How is migration creating a new Europe? How does China's expanding need for energy affect its relation with the world? How does Russia's age-old quest for a warm water port still impact its foreign policy? How will Africa's growing population and expanding urban economies change its global role? How has the conflict in Syria and Iraq upended the status quo of Sykes-Picot? And how can regional and multilateral institutions adapt to address the tensions that result from these developments? The 2017 IPI Salzburg Forum will address these questions and more. It will bring together an intimate high-level group of participants from diverse backgrounds, including the diplomatic, academic, and intelligence communities as well as current and former politicians, journalists, and representatives of civil society - to look at these pertinent questions and seek insights into the changing nature of geopolitical relations today with a particular focus on Europe and the Middle East. MAPPING THE NEW GEOPOLITICS Page 2 ol 9 EFTA00607319 IPI SALZBURG FORUM 2017 Schloss Leopoldskron, 3-5 September WELCOME TOUR Guided tour of the Schloss by Daniel Szelenyi, General Manager, Hotel Schloss Leopoldskron Sunday, 3 September 2017 I Guests will meet at the Hotel Reception, 19:30 The International Peace Institute extends a warm welcome to all participants of the IPI Salzburg Forum 2017, "Mapping the New Geopolitics: Prisoners of Geography or Lords of the Land?" The first day will allow guests to familiarize themselves with the beautiful historic Schloss and its surroundings - home to famous theatre director and actor Max Reinhardt, and internationally renowned for the Sound of Music. A tour of the rococo palace and the estate will provide an opportunity to soak in the spirit of this stimulating venue, as well as socialize and exchange thoughts at a welcome dinner. Breakfast for the following two days will be provided starting at 7:30am in the Marble Hall of the palace. Information and orientation booklets for our guests will be provided upon check-in as part of the welcome package. All participants as well as the broader public are invited to join the conversation on Twitter, using the hashtag #IPISF17. Discussions will be held under the Chatham House Rule. MAPPING THE NEW GEOPOLITICS Page 3 019 EFTA00607320 IPI SALZBURG FORUM 2017 \ L.-ph:tuber OPENING APERITIF Get-together of participants and introduction Sunday, 3 September 2017 I Great Hall. 20:00 WELCOME DINNER Sunday, 3 September 2017 I Marble Hall. 20:15 WELCOME AND INTRODUCTION Terje Rod-Larsen President, International Peace Institute KEYNOTE ADDRESS Kevin Rudd President of the Asia Society Policy Institute and Former Prime Minister of Australia MAPPING THE NEW GEOPOLITICS Paged of 9 EFTA00607321 IPI SALZBURG FORUM 2017 Schloss Leopoldskron, 3-5 September SESSION 1 Mapping the New Geopolitics Monday. 4 September 2017 I Library. 09:30 There is much discussion today of the return of geopolitics. What has changed? What has stayed the same? Competition among the great powers remains a decisive factor in international affairs, but the terms of that competition is shifting. After a period of post- Cold War quiescence, Russia is challenging the liberal international order in systematic fashion, and a new ambivalence emanating from Washington appears to weaken its defense. But the strength of institutions, including the North Atlantic alliance tempers claims of the system's demise. Meanwhile, China has stepped into the gap to claim the mantle of globalization's champion. In some quarters, Brexit portends the division of Europe, in others it is a rallying cry for unity on the Continent Interminable conflict and extremism have put in flux the map of the Middle East, but talk of the end of Sykes-Picot is premature. Alternative energy and new modes of extraction have diversified energy markets, but the importance of the Persian Gulf and the wider Middle East for the global economy remains essential. This session will provide the opportunity to discuss the big picture of geopolitics today. What are the essential points of contest? How can policymakers best balance the defense of national interests with the pursuit of global common goods? Where are we heading? And how can multilateral institutions best respond? WELCOME AND INTRODUCTION Adam Lupel Vice President, International Peace Institute CHAIRPERSON Terje Rod-Larsen President, International Peace Institute PANELISTS Turki Al Faisal Chairman, King Faisal Center for Research and Islamic Studies Antonio de Aguiar Patriota Ambassador of Brazil to Italy and Former Foreign Minister of Brazil Ana Palacio Former Foreign Minister of Spain and Founder of Palacio y Asociados Kevin Rudd President of the Asia Society Policy Institute and Former Prime Minister of Australia COFFEE BREAK Great Hall.11:00 MAPPING THE NEW GEOPOLITICS Page 5 of 9 EFTA00607322 IPI SALZBURG FORUM 2017 Schloss Leopoldskron, 3-5 September SESSION 2 Europe: Russia, Brexit, and the Future of the European Union Monday, 4 September 2017 I Library,11:30 Three interrelated challenges are prominent in Europe today: the coherence of the EU following the Euro crisis and Brexit; the continuing struggle over Ukraine; and the political challenges precipitated in part by migration and refugee flows. Following recent elections in the UK and France, there is great uncertainty in Britain, but relief and rising optimism on the Continent. Still, the conflict in Ukraine persists and relations between Russia and the West are tense. Refugees and migrants continue to make the perilous journey across the Mediterranean by the thousands, and the populist right remains strong in Poland and Hungary—challenging the liberal democratic foundations of the European Union. As migrants and refugees continue to arrive in Europe, how will they change the demographic composition of Europe, and what political impact will they have? Does populism remain a challenge for European institutions? How will the new relation between the UK and the EU evolve? What is the endgame in Ukraine? And what impact will the Trump administration have on the long-term stability of the North Atlantic Alliance? CHAIRPERSON Natalie Nougayrede Foreign Affairs Commentator and Editorial Board Member, The Guardian PANELISTS Paul Bekkers Director, Office of the Secretary-General, OSCE Snezana Samardiie-Markovie Director-General for Democracy, Council of Europe Steven Erlanger New York Times Chief Diplomatic Correspondent for Europe Udo K. Janz Former Head of UN High Commissioner of Refugees, New York Office GROUP PHOTO Great Hall. 13:00 LUNCH Marble Hall. 13:15 MAPPING THE NEW GEOPOLITICS ) EFTA00607323 IPI SALZBURG FORUM 2017 Schloss Leopoldskron, 3-5 September SESSION 3 Changing Relations in the Middle East and North Africa: What Comes Next? Monday. 4 September 2017 I Library, 15:00 In recent years, the Middle East and North Africa has been riven by internal and external rivalries: between Sunnis and Shia, between Iran and Saudi Arabia, and between the US and Russia, among others. Conflict and violent extremism has visited untold destruction upon Iraq, Libya, Syria, and Yemen; and a diplomatic crisis has divided the Gulf. How will these rivalries evolve in the coming years, and what political manifestations will they take? What comes next? As Daesh continues to lose territory in the region, how will governments respond to its continuing threat? What would constitute a durable peace in its wake? How has the refugee crisis transformed the demographics of the region in countries like Jordan or Lebanon? And what political impact will that have? As water scarcity rises as an issue, will hydro-diplomacy provide a potential area of cooperation or of further conflict? How will the changing roles of Turkey and Russia in the region impact interstate relations? CHAIRPERSON Nasra Hassan PANELISTS Mahmoud Gebril Sid Ahmed Ghozali Abubakr Qirbi Barham Salih Senior• Advisor, International Peace Institute Former Prime Minister of Libya Former Prime Minster of Algeria Former Foreign Minister of Yemen Former Prime Minister of Regional Government of Iraqi Kurdistan, former Deputy Prime Minister, Iraq MAPPING THE NEW GEOPOLITICS 7 td 9 EFTA00607324 IPI SALZBURG FORUM 2017 I O,rold,4OO, SESSION 4 Closed-Door Session of the Task Force for Regional Cooperation in the Middle East Monday. 4 September 2017 I Library. 17:30 PIANO CONCERT Performance by Damir Sertic Great Hall. 18:00 COCKTAIL RECEPTION Great Hall. 19:15 DINNER Marble Hall. 20:00 MAPPING THE NEW GEOPOLITICS 1'acc 8 9 EFTA00607325 IPI SALZBURG FORUM 2O17 Schloss Leopoldskron, 3-5 September SIGHTSEEING & DEPARTURE Tuesday, 5 September 2017 Experiencing Salzburg: A Scenic Depth of History This year marks the 201st anniversary of when Salzburg became part of Austria. On May 1, 1816, as a result of the Treaty of Paris following the Napoleonic Wars, this city and region were integrated into Austria. Two centuries later we have the privilege to convene the IPI Salzburg Forum in this vibrant and open city that combines the best of the old world with the dynamism of the new, in beautiful natural surroundings. The International Peace Institute wholeheartedly thanks all participants for their contributions to the IPI Salzburg Forum 2017, "Mapping the New Geopolitics: Prisoners of Geography or Lords of the Land?". As a pleasant conclusion of this fruitful high-profile conference, we suggest our guests indulge in the scenic surroundings of Schloss Leopoldskron - especially the beautiful historic city center of Salzburg and stunning views from the Hohensalzburg Castle. Touristic information is available at the hotel reception. ABOUT IPI www.ipinst.org The International Peace Institute (IPI) is an independent, international not-for-profit think tank dedicated to managing risk and building resilience to promote peace, security, and sustainable development. To achieve its purpose, IPI employs a mix of policy research, strategic analysis, publishing, and convening. The Institute was founded in 1970 as the International Peace Academy (IPA), which focused on training military officers and diplomats for United Nations peacekeeping operations. In 2008, the organization changed its name to the International Peace Institute to reflect its current identity as a research institution that works with and supports multilateral institutions, governments, civil society, and the private sector on a range of regional and global security challenges. IPI also carries out work in and on Africa, the Middle East, Europe, and Central Asia. With a staff from more than twenty countries and a broad range of academic fields, IPI has offices facing United Nations Headquarters in New York and offices in Vienna and Manama. IPI partners with regional organizations, think tanks, universities, and NGOs to conduct research, produce publications, and convene meetings in many parts of the world. MAPPING THE NEW GEOPOLITICS 9 EFTA00607326