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.ATORUS
DRAFT - January 2014
EFTA00621325
Agenda
4ATORUS
•
Overview
3
•
Founding Partners
4
•
Investment Strategy
5
•
Investment Methodology
6
•
Key Differentiating Factors
12
•
Track Record
13
•
Contact Information
15
•
Disclaimer
16
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EFTA00621326
Overview - Atorus
The investment strategy is scalable, highly
liquid, and transparent which aims to
minimize volatility and generate consistent
returns.
Atorus is headquartered in Weston, MA as a
Registered Investment Advisor in the state
of Massachusetts.
Atorus is in its pre-launch phase, targeting
an initial capital raise of $100m for a launch
date of March 1st, 2014.
i ATORUS
The investment strategy is scalable, highly
liquid, and transparent which aims to
minimize volatility and generate consistent
returns.
Atorus is headquartered in Weston, MA as a
Registered Investment Advisor in the state
of Massachusetts.
Atorus is in its pre-launch phase, targeting
an initial capital raise of $100m for a launch
date of March 1st, 2014.
3
EFTA00621327
Founding Partners
riATORUS
The Founding Partners of Atorus met in 2006, when they began collaborating on research and development of what are now the
underlying insights of the Atorus trading methodology.
Diverse backgrounds and experience combined with complementary skill sets is the foundation for creating, developing, and growing
the Atorus trading methodology into a global, leadership-driven asset management business.
Michael J. Fowler — Partner & Chief Investment Officer
(trading, position level analysis and quantitative systems
development).
Michael's career has been focused on understanding the
nuances of complex financial systems and other markets. In
2007 Michael was the Co-Founder and Senior Portfolio
Manager at Red Dot Trading, LLC, where in cooperation with
Joshua, he was responsible for the day to day trading of a
sector specific core listed-equity book. Prior to this, he was
the Director of Structured Products & Finance at The Geneva
Group in New York where he was responsible for developing
financial structures to provide bank-regulatory capital relief
solutions given Basel II risk re-weightings. Michael also
focused on project and acquisition financings primarily in the
infrastructure, real estate and energy industries, including the
acquisition of London City Airport by various European banks.
He began his financial career at the age of 14 as a runner for
the American Stock Exchange and at the age of 16 was hired
by the hedge fund MHG Capital as an equity and equity
derivatives trader. Michael is an avid ultra marathoner who
runs 50 and 100 mile+ races.
Joshua L. Levy — Partner & Chief Operating Officer (quantitative
systems development and implementation, operations and trading).
Joshua has largely focused on understanding what makes
companies grow and prosper and bringing simplicity and systematic
thinking to complex processes. In 2007, Joshua co-founded Red Dot
Trading, LLC with partner Michael Fowler, where they both traded
the core-equity book. Prior to founding Red Dot Trading, LLC,
Joshua was the Director of Private Investments at MUUS Asset
Management, a Connecticut-based private equity firm, where he was
responsible for the operational restructuring and management of
portfolio companies in the real estate, automotive, and energy
industries. With MUUS Asset Management, he completed the
successful turnaround of Sol Incorporated from bankruptcy to 2x
revenue, strong profitability, and positioning for acquisition. Prior to
MUUS Asset Management, Joshua worked at Alvarez & Marsal
Europe in both Stockholm, Sweden and London, England where he
focused on advising distressed international companies and their
debt restructurings. In 1996, he founded Creative Ideas International,
a consumer goods distribution and marketing firm in Eastern Europe,
which he then sold to a NYSE listed company in 2001. Recognized
as a global operations and turnaround expert, Joshua has served
since 2004 as a Board Member of Round Hill Capital LLC, a $4
billion global real estate investor / asset manager. He holds an MBA
from the MIT Sloan School of Management and a BA from Vanderbilt
University. Joshua is an enthusiastic ice hockey goalie and has
played for teams in the USA, Poland and Norway.
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Investment Strategy
. ATORUS
Atorus is a global multi-strategy fund with a systematic bias that hinges on Price Movement and Volatility.
HOW?
•
The Fund invests in 350+ positions across two main asset classes: global macro instruments and listed equities.
•
Each position is systematically chosen to minimize correlation risk taking into account volatility randomness low
correlation and asset class diversification to deliver profits for investors in up and down markets.
•
The effective 'neutrality' of the overall portfolio dampens the volatility of returns month-on-month.
•
Within the portfolio, directional bets are taken on individual positions via systematic trade management -irrespective of
portfolio considerations.
•
Atorus cuts beta on losing positions and lets winners run by incrementally 'pyramiding' up.
•
Atorus targets a Profit Factor of 2.5X and a Win Ratio"• of > 40%. The magnitude of winners more than offsets losers.
•
Systematic Trade management on individual long and short positions is driven by analysis of TIME and VOLATILITY.
•
Returns therefore take a 'stair step' profile, with incremental gains, targeting 11.2% in positive calendar quarters and -4.7% in
down calendar quarters, with 85% positive rolling yearly returns.
Profit Factor: The ratio of the avg. realized gain on a profitable trade divided by the average realized loss on a losing trade.
" Win/Loss Ratio: The percentage of profitable trades.
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Investment Methodology
The Atorus investment methodology utilizes 3 discrete investment modules.
0
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0
@ATO RUS
Directional Bias of Individual Positions & Timing
Portfolio Construction
'is
on ro
EFTA00621330
Investment Methodology
•
Systematic portfolio construction screens for assets with low intra-portfolio correlation.
•
The goal is to maximize randomness I minimize basis and attribution risk I maximize outsized price persistence
and construct a portfolio to mitigate correlation risk.
•
Portfolio positions are diversified by Region, Asset Class, Directional Bias and Volatility State.
•
The two main components of the portfolio: "Global Macro" and "Listed Equities" balance returns across global
volatility states.
When markets are 'moving,' i.e. high volatility, the importance of the contribution from listed equities will
be equal to that of the Global Macro book. When volatility is low, the Listed Equity book positions will
make a larger contribution to the portfolio.
.ATORUS
•
Global Macro Instruments> FX, G20 Rates, Equity Index Futures, ETFs
•
Listed Equities from G7 and BRIC countries, of which there must be;
Minimum market cap of $10billion+
Average daily turnover of $50million/day
»Correlation determines investment opportunities but does not affect the individual direction of any position.
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Investment Methodology
Directional Bias of Individual
Positions & Timing
• ATORUS
•
Determining the directional bias and profiting from 'large' movements, whether long or short, is the foundation of the
strategy.
•
Subjective factors are removed in favour of Atorus' disciplined, systematic approach.
•
Proprietary calculations of changes in realized volatility and price movement alter the timing of entry and exit.
•
Volatility scales. As volatility increases our perspective is tightened, allowing for a quick reaction on the
directionality of an individual position.
•
This protects the Atorus portfolio against a common event where an increase of a stock price of 20% — 30%
which took 6 months to achieve is not lost in 30 days.
•
In simple terms, if realized volatility is not changing, portfolio positions are maintained so as not to sell at the
bottom and buy at the top of mini trends.
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EFTA00621332
Investment Methodology
Directional Bias of Individual
Positions & Timing (cont.)
. ATORUS
•
Trajectory and momentum of asset prices accurately reflect the fundamentals; often one year ahead.
•
Atorus does not establish any arbitrary targeted net directional bias for the portfolio or for any subsector of the
portfolio.
•
Portfolio bias is generated by the aggregate of our individual position bias rather then any defined targets - if
Atorus is expressing a particular net directional bias, it is likely we are experiencing outsized profits across multiple
positions.
•
Key Points:
Mean reversion is against the ethos of our strategy. The mean has the most 'noise'.
No moving averages or technical analysis.
Keep losers small and winners big.
Time is always a variable.
No 'trend' following.
Low turnover of positions.
Atorus Proprietary Research
"Volatility Scales." Changes in realized volatility alter the speed at which the price of a security can change.
In 14,363 daily observations of the S&P500, which includes The Cuban Missile Crisis, Inflation of the 1970s, S&L Crisis, LTCM, 9/11,
Tech Crash, and the Financial Crisis, our predicted volatility in the next period is only exceeded 177 times or 1.23% of the time, with
no clustering of these outcomes. When exceeded, the average error is only 26% more than the prediction.
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Investment Methodology
Risk Control
Risk control is achieved by systematically managing:
•
Entry/ Exit Points:
—
Minimum of 5 days entry 'smoothing the noise > beneficial relative to targeted hold period.
•
Leverage:
Never used at the inception of a trade, on an individual position basis.
—
Anticipated average net leverage of 2.2 X (can be tailored for each investor)
. ATORUS
•
Position Sizing:
—
Designed to limit downside risk
—
No human discretion.
—
Realized volatility of security determines the size of an allocation.
—
Calculated for potential maximum targeted impact loss and a balanced positive impact from winners to NAV.
—
Position sizing increases as winners are leveraged in declining notional amounts at target price levels informed by realized
volatility.
-
5% soft maximum position size.
10
EFTA00621334
Investment Methodology
Risk Control (cont.)
•
Average Hold period is 30 days for losing trades, 6 months for winners (can be multiple years).
.ATORUS
•
Alpha is generated on moves of 20-30 X average realized vol, which generally does not occur over short time
intervals.
•
The Fund does not dollar cost average its positions and losers are closed swiftly.
Risk Control is designed to enhance winners and minimize losers.
Portfolio Construction and Directional Bias of Individual Positions and Timing are designed to mitigate downside
volatility.
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EFTA00621335
Key Differentiating Factors
. ATORUS
Cohesiveness; The Partners have worked and traded together since 2007. Their backgrounds, experiences and
strengths are different & complimentary.
The managers have a deep understandings of complex systems and trading. They have BOTH respect for market
forces and dedication to discipline, order, and operational excellence.
A unique investment approach combines three discrete investment modules; portfolio construction, the directional
bias of individual positions and timing, and strict and methodical risk control.
Measurement of return is on an absolute basis. Our focus is on our Win/Loss Ratio and Profit Factor.
No risk of style drift.
Focus on consistency of returns with minimized monthly volatility; 'Stairstep' return profile.
Customizable strategy can be tailored to specific regions, sectors, and risk profiles.
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EFTA00621336
Track Record
SATORUS
•
The team managed a $50million (avg. notional risk of $100MM) portfolio for a European Bank from
September 2011 to June 2013.
Sector specific mandate experienced low correlation to broader markets even during market declines.
Track record is non-portable as it is derived from a managed account and part of a broader portfolio.
Win ratio of 38% achieved.
Realized profit factor of 2.25X
Generated positive returns on months with large market drawdowns (September 2011, May 2012)
$1,500,000
$1,000,000
$500,000
$(500,000)
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EFTA00621337
Track Record (cont.)
• sATORUS
•
With Global mandate, over 400+ positions, backtested results
85% positive rolling yearly returns
Low drawdowns
Largest positive position accounts for less than 3% of total P/L
Positive returns in market declines, by design, while still maximizing upside
IRR of 31% gross returns
Following charts display (1) Fund dollar NAV with initial capital of $100MM and (2) percentile distribution of
rolling yearly returns
20,000,000,000
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EFTA00621338
Contact Information
. ATORUS
For further information:
Joshua Levy, Partner, Atorus
Ph: +1 (978) 295-1765
E:
Michael Fowler, Partner, Atorus
Ph: +1 (732) 735-0447
E:
86 Myles Standish Rd.
Weston, MA
02493 USA
15
EFTA00621339
Disclaimer
ATORUS
This presentation is provided for informational and discussion purposes only and does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to provide
investment management services. Any solicitation, if made, will be made only pursuant to an Investment Management Agreement ("IMA"). In
the case of any inconsistency between the descriptions or terms in this document and the IMA, the IMA shall control. This document may not be
reproduced or distributed in any format without the express written approval of Red Dot Trade Finance, LLC. While all information prepared in
this document is believed to be accurate, Red Dot Trade Finance, LLC makes no express warranty as to its completeness or accuracy, nor can
it accept responsibility for errors in this document. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Red Dot Trade Finance, LLC disclaims any and all
liability in the event any information, commentary, analysis, opinions, advice and/or recommendations in this presentation prove to be
inaccurate, incomplete or unreliable, or result in any investment or other losses. The information contained herein does not purport to contain all
of the information that may be required to evaluate an investment . Ability to achieve investment objectives may be affected by a variety of risks
not discussed herein. A prospective investor understands the nature of the investment and can bear the economic risk of such investment
In considering any performance information contained herein, investors shall bear in mind that past or projected performance is not necessarily
indicative of future results, and there can be no assurance that target returns will be met. The prior results of the principals is representative of
their direct investment responsibilities utilizing the investment strategy methodology represented herein, but within a larger fund vehicle and may
not reflect results of the vehicle.
The investment strategy is speculative and involves a high degree of risk. Opportunities for withdrawal of funds are restricted, so investors may
not have access to capital when it is needed. The portfolio composition, which is under the sole trading authority of Red Dot Trade Finance,
LLC, may not be fully diversified and this lack of diversification may result in higher risk. Leverage, that is borrowing on margin, will be employed
in the portfolio, which can make investment performance volatile, requires investment gains to be in excess of the cost of borrowing, and could
result in losses to investors in excess of their principal. The investment strategy involves the purchase and sale of options and other leveraged
derivative instruments, which can result in losses in excess of the capital in an investor's account.
NOTICE OF PENDING REGISTRATION : Red Dot Trade Finance, LLC has a pending application to become a Registered Investment Advisor,
but is currently not registered with any regulatory authority. Atorus, LLC registration is pending at time of publication of this document. Atorus,
LLC is intended to be the investment vehicle and Red Dot Trade Finance, LLC the Registred Investment Advisor.
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EFTA00621340
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