EFTA00632449.pdf

From: Richard Kahn To: "Jeffrey E." <jeevacation@grnail.com> Subject: Fwd: Jeffrey - Two 9month expiry Rupee option trades + historical charts Date: Fri, 23 May 2014 15:24:43 +0000 i wanted to follow up regarding Rupee trade i see DB presented two ideas below do you like either or want to see other ideas on getting long Rupee or pass please advise Richard Kahn HBRK Associates Inc. 575 Lexington Avenue 4th Floor New York. NY 10022 Begin forwarded message: > From: Tazia Smith a> > Subject: Fw: Jeffrey - Two 9month expiry Rupee option trades + historical charts > Date: May 20, 2014 at 3:20:04 PM EDT > To: jeevacation@ ail.com > Cc: Paul Morris Nay Gupta , Vinit Sahni Vahe Stepanian > Jeffrey - > Traders' view is that accurate history on the option itself (9mo ATM USDpINRc, for example) doesn't exist given the forward points, vol, liquidity, etc backdated inputs would not be accurate. That said, I've included the 6 and 12mo ATM USDINR implied vol history here to provide some context of historical relative value. Bloomberg is pretty accurate historically for GIO currencies, for ENR it's bit off, but will give you a sense: > As of 8/28/13 (USDINR high of 68.825 spot), bloomberg suggests the ATM 9mo USDcINRp would cost 5.01% (see screenshot below). > Going back to 5/20/13 when spot was at it's 52wk low (rupee strength vs USD) of 55.1137, the 9mo ATM USDcINRp cost —1.65% according to Bloomberg. > This compares to the present —1.3% vs. 58.60 spot that Nav laid out. > 6mo USDINR AMT Implied Vol History > lyr USDINR AMT Implied Vol History EFTA00632449 > 9mo ATM USDcINRp as of 8/28/13 = $51k premium vs. $1mm notional > 9mo ATM USDcINRp as of 5/20/13 = $16.6k premium vs. Shinn notional > Used with permission of Bloomberg Finance LP > Forwarded by Tazia Smith/db/dbcom on 05/20/2014 02:03 PM > From: > Nav Gupta/db/dbcom@DBEMEA > To: > jeevacation@gmail.corn, DBComAdmins@dbcom, > Cc: > Tazia Smith/db/dbcom@DBAMERICAS, Paul Morris/db/dbcom@DBAMERICAS, > Date: > 05/20/2014 01:13 PM > Subject: > Jeffrey - Two 9month expiry Rupee option trades + historical charts > USDINR - 6 Month History > USDINR 12 Month History > Trade 1: 9month expiry vanilla USDINR puts > Ref spot: USDINR 58.6 > Scenario Analysis for Trade 1 > Table shows value of option (as % of notional) on movement in spot, decaying with time EFTA00632450 > Trade 2: Buy a 9month 1% OTM Spot USDINR put and sell a 9m 15% OTM Spot USDINR call for net zero premia > Put strike: 58.08, call strike: 67.58 > Ref spot: USDINR 58.6 > Scenario Analysis for Trade 2 > Table shows net value of a long put and short call option (as % of notional) on movement in spot, decaying with time > Nav > "jeffrey E." --20/05/2014 17:22:18---can you send me a chart of where this has been over the past 6 months? thaks > From: > "jeffrey E." <jeevacation@gmail.corn> > To: > Nav Gupta/db/dbcom@DBEMEA, > Cc: > Vinit Sahni/db/dbcom@DBEMEA, Tazia Smith/db/dbcom@DBAMERICAS, Paul Morris/db/dbcom@DBAMERICAS > Date: > 20/05/2014 17:22 > Subject: > Re: Jeffrey - Rupee Appreciation - Nav > can you send me a chart of where this has been over the past 6 months? thaks > On Tue, May 20, 2014 at 9:49 AM, Nav Gupta <Milla> wrote: > Jeffrey > After pricing lots of possibilities, are two ways i like best to play usdinr lower > I) buy vanilla European style USDINR puts > Ref spot: 58.67 EFTA00632451 > This table has 9 offers in %notional: lm 3m and 6m expiries for spot, spot-1%, spot-2% > Of these I like 6month ATMspot USDINR European style put offered at 1.19%. > The roll in the forwards offsets some of theta which is why the 3mth ATMspot put costs a similar (1.07%) amount > 2) Buying vanilla European style out-of-the-money USDINR puts, funded by selling OTM calls on USDINR > 6month expiry > spot ref 58.67 > Buy USDINR put strike 58.08 (ATMspot -1%) > Sell USDINR call strike 64.18 (ATMspot +9.4%) > Net upfront premia zero > I see from your last msg you want 9months. I'll price those and get back to you. > Nav > Nav Gupta > Managing Director > Deutsche Bank AG, Filiale London > Deutsche Asset & Wealth Management > 1051108 Old Broad St ers Hall), EC2N 1EN London, United Kingdom > Email > Any proposed ideas are being delivered to you by the DeAWM Key Client Partners ("KCP") London desk for discussion purposes only, and do not create any legally binding obligation on the part of Deutsche Bank AG and / or its affiliates ("DB"). These ideas are for the consideration of the intended recipients of this mail only. 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