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From: Office of Tetje Rod-Larsen < Subject: IPI Middle East Update - January 6, 2014 Date: Mon, 06 Jan 2014 22:41:47 +0000 INTERNATIONAL PEACE INSTITUTE IPI Middle East Update January 6, 2014 Egypt: Egypt is approaching another decision point in its transition: a referendum on the recently drafted constitution on January 14th and 15th. The referendum represents the first major political proceeding and a test for the new military- backed government following the overthrow of Morsi in July 2013. The Egyptian street is politically charged: every street corner is littered with posters calling on citizens to "Vote Yes" for the constitution. While it is likely that the constitution will pass, its drafters are concerned about whether voter turnout will be sufficient in light of recent violence that might deter citizens from taking to the streets on polling day and disgruntlement with the constitutional draft itself—which, for hardline revolutionaries, still maintains the "deep state" status of the Egyptian armed forces. If the referendum passes, new dates will be set for both presidential and parliamentary elections in the coming months. As the process unfolds, Egypt has encountered waves of violence not seen since its war against Islamist groups in the 1990s. A particularly serious bombing in the Nile Delta city of Mansoura on December 24, 2013, killed over 14 people and injured hundreds. This prompted the government to list the Muslim Brotherhood as a "terrorist organization" (considered a strange move by some given that the more hardline, Sinai-based Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis claimed responsibility for the attack). The "terrorist" listing and crackdown is reminiscent of the Nasser era in the 1960s, which witnessed the execution of Brotherhood leader Sayyid Qutb. It has also inspired a witch-hunt in Egypt against members and supporters of the Muslim Brotherhood: a new hotline was formed for citizens to "report" any such people. The backlash has resulted in an outcry by groups that consider the terrorist listing unfair, and it is particularly visible on university campuses. As the government—and the security apparatus—continues to show a semblance of stability, the country is likely to face long- term instability in the form of isolated terrorist campaigns. Tunisia: Tunisia's rival political parties have set themselves a January 14th deadline to adopt a new constitution (the third anniversary of the Tunisian revolution). Unlike Egypt, which will have witnessed three constitutional referendums since Mubarak's overthrow, this is the first such process since the overthrow of Ben Ali. The national assembly will vote on the document article by article. To be adopted, the draft must be approved by at least two thirds of the 217 elected members of the national assembly or put to a referendum. The feat of passing a constitution will mark a significant step forward in Tunisia's transition, which has been hampered by endless disagreement between the ruling Ennanda party and opposition parties. The compromises being made are an indication of Ennanda's awareness of the regional trends faced by political Islam elsewhere and augur a more moderate political stance by Islamists in Tunisian politics. The first day of voting, which started on January 4th, was marked by elements of chaos according to press reports, despite the passing of the first article. This led some to speculate that the emergence of Tunisia's constitution will be "painful" at best. While much of the debate surrounding the future powers of the head of state have been resolved, the fate of the national assembly's power between the constitutional vote and the next parliamentary election (the date of which has yet to be set) remains undetermined. Lebanon: Lebanon has once again proven its pivotal position in the Syrian conflict's regional playing field. A fourth car bomb rocked south Beirut on January 2" —another symbolic blow to Hezbollah, whose support of the Alawite regime in Damascus continues to disgruntle Sunni elements in the region as a whole. The streets of southern Beirut have been bolstered with more checkpoints in an attempt to increase security in light of recent volatility. The car bomb came just a week after another explosion in central Beirut killed four on December 27th, including the Sunni political figure Mohamed Chatah, who had served as an advisor to former Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri and was a prime ministerial hopeful himself. EFTA00651381 While it is true that the recent upheaval in Lebanon can be understood best from a regional lens, intertwined with the Syrian conflict, it is equally part of the deep-rooted domestic confrontation between the March 14 (predominantly Sunni) and March 8 (dominated by Hezbollah) groups that continues to plunge Lebanese politics into an impasse. Analysts predict deeper regional engagement in Lebanon, epitomized by the recent $3 billion dollar loan given to its armed forces by the Saudi Arabian government. Iraq: A significant number of jihadists with links to al-Qaida and fighters in Syria—in particular, members of the so-called Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIS)—have moved into Fallujah and Ramadi in Anbar province in Iraq. This is the first time militants have retained such flagrant control in major cities since the peak of the violent insurgency that followed the US-led invasion of 2003. According to an official statement on January 5th, the Iraqi regime is preparing for a serious counter-campaign against the militants. While motivations and alliances are murky in Iraq's fractured and tense society, it is notable that the Shia-led Al Maliki government, seen as having marginalized Sunnis, can still find allies in Iraqi Sunni tribal leaders when it comes to fight the al-Qaida groups (as the US forces had found as well). In addition, the US is giving its moral backing and weapons to the Al Maliki government in this fight. While ISIS may be making advancements in Iraq, it suffered a recent setback in northern Syria when a number of breakaway groups allied into the newly formed "Army of the Mujahedeen" and declared war against the al-Qaida affiliate. Iran: Iran has continued its push to improve bilateral relations with the West. On January 6th, a British parliamentary delegation headed by former foreign secretary Jack Straw arrived in Tehran for consultations on the rapprochement. The delegation is set to meet with Ali Larijani (speaker of the Majlis) and Gholam Hossein Shafei (president of Iran's Chamber of Commerce, Industries, Mines and Agriculture). This visit is a significant milestone, given the British embassy closed in Iran after an attack on its facilities by Iranians protesting nuclear-related sanctions in November 2011. Morocco and Qatar: Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani paid a visit to Morocco and held meetings with King Mohammed VI and the elected government just before the new year. This visit brought together two of the Middle East's youngest leaders: Sheikh Tamim is in his early 30s and King Mohammed VI is 50. Agreements were signed during the visit to cover the Qatari share ($1.25 billion) of a multi-year, Gulf Arab aid package (total of $5 billion) aimed at easing Morocco's budget deficit from 5.5% of GDP in 2013 to 4.9%. The deficit was largely created by food and energy subsidies launched in Morocco during the Arab spring in 2011 and 2012. For more information please contact: Maureen Quinn at Camilla Reksten-Monsen at • The Middle East Update presents a summary of ongoing developments in the Middle East based on information from the local and international press expert analyses, and other sources. This service is provided by the International Peace Institute (IPI) exclusively to donors to its Middle East program. The views expressed here do not necessarily represent those of IPI. EFTA00651382