EFTA00688012.pdf

From: Ariane Dwyer <1 To: "jeevacation®gmail.com" <jeevacation®gmail.com> Morris , Stewart Oldfield , Richard Kahn , Vahe Stepanian , Paul CC: Daniel Sabba Subject: FW: Trade ideas for shorting Asian currencies [C] Date: Thu, 20 Aug 2015 17:06:27 +0000 Inline-Images: image00 1 jpg; image002.jpg; image003.jpg Jeffrey, Please find below USDKRW charts as per your request. 1. ly USDKRW spot KEN 1185.17 -.36 BEN 1184.95/1185.39 BGl At 1:59 Op 1183.59 Hi 1188.70 Lo 1179.60 Close 1185.53 Value 08/24/15 08/20/2014 03/20/2015 MaZMILI ::) Cr:moray. . ID 3D IM en 'Ma rt . SY Max ,agy • I NUoNo WOW ONO-04/13/11Ino.o. /at. "Mai SLeo ow MOM'S "nu 2. USDKRW and USDCNH spot since 2011 110, .oxen Chart EFTA00688012 6.7 6.6 USDCNH Spot USDKRW Spot 1250 1200 Ohs) (rhs) 6S 6.4 1150 63 1100 6.2 1050 6.1 6.0 1000 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 3. USDKRW and USDCNH 6 month skew since 2011 12.0% 10.0% USDCNH 6m Skew USDKRW 6m Skew 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: Bloomberg Finance LP Best, Ari From: Jeffrey E. imailtoCeevac j ataion tgn moJ Sent: Thursday, August 20, 2015 11:22 AM To: Vahe Stepanian Subject: Re: FW: Trade ideas for shorting Asian currendes [C] send charts on the korean On Mon, Aug 17, 2015 at 4:51 PM, Vahe Stepanian > wrote: Classification: Confidential Jeffrey - I've included additional pricing below to short Asian currencies on the back of conversations today with Rich. EFTA00688013 Please let us know your thoughts and we can provide live pricing per your request. Pricing below is indicative and assumes $50mm notional. Thank you, Vahe USDKRW Spot Ref: 1182.80 6m USDKRW Call Spreads SOFL buys low strike and sells high strike (quoted as Low Strike / High Strike Premium as % of USD Notional) - 1200 / 1250 / 1.15% - 1220 / 1280 / 1.00% 6m USDKRW Premium Neutral Collars SOFL buys the USDKRW call and sells the put option (quoted as Call Strike / Put Strike) - 1220 / 1170 - 1230 / 1164 USDTWD Spot Ref: 32.35 6m USDTWD Premium Neutral Collars SOFL buys the USDTWD call and sells the put option (quoted as Call Strike / Put Strike) - 33.50 / 31.90 - 34.00 / 31.70 USDSGD Spot Ref: 1.4070 6m USDSGD Premium Neutral Collars SOFL buys the USDSGD call and sells the put option (quoted as Call Strike / Put Strike) - 1.4250 / 1.4070 - 1.4500 / 1.3900 Vanilla basket call Equally-weighted basket in USDCNH and USDKRW Strike/ Premium: ATMS / 2.51% 2.5% OTMS / 1.37% EFTA00688014 Basket cheapening to vanillas: 15% 20% Equally -weighted basket in CNH, KRW, SGD and TWD Strike/ Premium: ATMS / 2.20% Basket cheapening to vanillas: 17% 2.5% OTMS/ 1.28% 25% Basket performance is sum of currency performance given by USDCCY final - USDCCY initial / USDCCY final spot Payout = Max (0, Basket Performance - Strike) Strike = 0.0% for ATMS and 2.5% for 2.5% OTMS ATMS = At the money spot OTMS = Out of the money spot From: Vahe Stepanlan Sent: Monday, August 17, 2015 10:46 AM To: 'Jeffrey E.' Cc: Daniel Sabha; Mane Dwyer; Paul Morris; Stewart 0ldfield; 'Richard Kahn' Subject: FW: Trade ideas for shorting Asian currendes [C] Classification: Confidential Jeffrey - I'm following up on Rich's email below about shorting Asian currency. Given your CNH maturity last week, we thought it made sense to revisit CNH options. Initially looked at premium neutral risk reversals, but given USD calls are nearly 4 vols over the puts, we decided to look at USDCNH call spreads instead. Indicative pricing: Spot ref = 6.444 SOFL buys Call, sells Call on USD/CNH in a Call Spread Strikes 6.55 / 6.75 Notional: USD 50,000,000 USD Expiry: The 17-Nov-2015 (3m) Premium: SOFL pays 324,500 (USD 486,000:-161,500) Premium Date: Wed 19-Aug-2015 SOFL buys Call, sells Call on USD/CNH in a Call Spread Strikes 6.55 / 6.8 EFTA00688015 Notional: USD 50,000,000 USD Expiry: Wed 17-Feb-2016 (6m) Premium: SOFL pays 428,000 (USD 794,500:-366,500) Premium Date: Wed I9-Aug-2015 SOFL buys Call, sells Call on USD/CNH in a Call Spread Strikes: 6.55 / 7.10 Notional: USD 50,000,000 USD Expiry: Wed 17-Aug-2016 (12m) Premium: SOFL pays 783,500 (USD 1,216,000:432,500) Premium Date: Wed I9-Aug-2015 I've also attached a short DB Research note from Friday which details recent forecast revisions to CNY. Note that the above options use CNH as underlying. Please let us know if you have thoughts. Thank you, Vahe Original Message From: Richard Kahn [mailto: Sent: Monday, August 17, 2015 8:04 AM To: Daniel Sabba; Vahe Stepanian Subject: Trade ideas for shorting Asian currencies Can you please send to Jeffrey and myself some trade ideas for shorting Asian currencies. Thank you. Sent from my iPhone EFTA00688016 This communication may contain confidential and/or privileged information. If you are not the intended recipient (or have received this communication in error) please notify the sender immediately and destroy this communication. Any unauthorized copying, disclosure or distribution of the material in this communication is strictly forbidden. Deutsche Bank does not render legal or tax advice, and the information contained in this communication should not be regarded as such. please note The information contained in this communication is confidential, may be attorney-client privileged, may constitute inside information, and is intended only for the use of the addressee. It is the property of JEE Unauthorized use, disclosure or copying of this communication or any part thereof is strictly prohibited and may be unlawful. If you have received this communication in error, please notify us immediately by return e-mail or by e-mail to jeevacationgigmail.com and destroy this communication and all copies thereof, including all attachments. copyright -all rights reserved This communication may contain confidential and/or privileged information. If you are not the intended recipient (or have received this communication in error) please notify the sender immediately and destroy this communication. Any unauthorized copying, disclosure or distribution of the material in this communication is strictly forbidden. Deutsche Bank does not render legal or tax advice, and the information contained in this communication should not be regarded as such. EFTA00688017