EFTA02366061.pdf

From: labor Y. < Sent: Thursday, November 5, 2015 4:26 PM To: Jeffrey Epstein Subject: Re: Fwd: Saudi rates and CDS Interesting information Thanks On 5 Nov 2015 10:51 am, "jeffrey E." &=t;jeevacation@gmail.com <mailto:jeevacation@gmail.com> w=ote: S&P cut Saudi Arab=a from A+ to AA- earlier this week as they expect the fiscal deficit will =ncrease to 16% of GDP in 2015, from 1.5% in 2014, primarily reflecting the=sharp drop in oil prices As a follow-up to the below, it is also interesting to look at playi=g the idea through FX. </=pan> USD/SAR is currently p=gged. While our base case is that the government will defend the peg, if h=adlines get worse, revenues collapse from depressed oil prices and the gov=rnment has to address fiscal spending, we believe forward points and volatility will continue to increase. Althou=h, it may be a low probability event that the government breaks the peg, i= we look at Kazakhstan's actions in August (see chart below), we s=e buying USD call/ SAR put options as an interesting risk reward. </=pan> USD/KZT lyr</=> Source: Bloomberg 11/0=12015 Chart 2 below shows Saudi CDS Syr Saudi CDS 1 EFTA_R1_01362112 EFTA02366061