EFTA02371551.pdf

From: Daniel Sabba Sent: Tuesday, March 31, 2015 8:07 PM To: jeffrey E. Cc: Vahe Stepanian; Ariane Dwyer Subject: FW: EOD Commodities Note - 31 Mar Prateek Jain Sent: Tuesday, March 31, 2015 4:06 PM Subject: EOD Commodities Note - 31 Mar OIL All eyes on Iran talks today which were extended by = day into Wednesday. Earlier in the day, a US official suggested that nego=iation may continue another day past deadline if 'it's useful =o do so'. Another Russian official commented that a deal was 'closer and closer'. This optimism about an ag=eement, at least on some points, weighed heavily on oil today with Brent d=opping 2.5%. In my opinion, even if the talks end positively with agreemen= on key points, the deal has been softened enough compared to what was originally sought by President Obama, and is g=ing to face a tough challenge being approved by a skeptical Congress, whic= is in fact proposing to impose new sanctions on Iran. Nigeria's elections ended today easing the pol=tical tension, with the ex-military ruler Buhari's winning against t=e incumbent President. In short term, this eased any immediate violence co=cerns in the country, but this shift in power can lead to the movement of the Boko Haram violence to southern oil produc=ng region of Nigeria and any developments there need to be carefully watch=d. In other news, Yemen rebels seized military base at Bab el-Mandeb, over=ooking the key shipping route while Saudi-led coalition kept bombing Houthi occupied sites.. Vols were stronger with wings being bought aggressiv=ly today as oil can move quickly away from current levels depending on Ira= deal outcome.. overall vols gained about 1% across the curve</=> &=bsp; &nb=p; =nbsp; WTI (/change) &=bsp; &nb=p; BRE (/change) 1O.5 &nbs=; =nbsp; 52.50% +1.45% &nbs=; &=bsp; 51.10% +1.05% M15 &nbs=; =nbsp; 51.20% +2.10% &nbs=; &=bsp; 47.90% +0.90% Z15 &=bsp; &nbs=; 37.10% +1.00% &nbs=; +0.70% EFTA_R1_01374317 EFTA02371551 Z16 &nbs=; &=bsp; 26.20% +0.10%&n=sp; Metals 3m Ivls &nb=p; =nbsp; dod change&nbs=; = 26.40% +0.55% support &nbs=; &=bsp; resistance Al $1785 =nbsp; &n=sp; -$12.5 &n=sp; $1=50 =nbsp; $1800 Cu $6041 =nbsp; &nb=p; -$41 =nbsp; =nbsp; $6000 &nb=p; $6300 Zn $2081 &=bsp; &nb=p; -$28 &nbs=; &=bsp; $2000 &nbs=; $2100<=o:p> Ni $12,395 =nbsp; &nb=p; -$485 &nbs=; $12,=00 =nbsp; $13,000 Pb $1820 =nbsp; &n=sp; -$5 &=bsp; &nbs=; $1800 &=bsp; &nbs=; $1900 The base complex traded down in the morning then pic=ed up on improving customer confidence only to crash off again at close.&n=sp; China has reduced the deposits required from home buyers for the secon= time in 6 months in an attempt to boost sliding house prices, which should have knock on effects in the copper and=nickel markets. Nickel continues its slide as CTA funds have s=ld off heavily on the supply crunch failing to materialize and demand from=the stainless steel market evaporating. Nickel ore supplies are also returning from the Philippines as the rainy s=ason ends, adding further supply pressure. Chinese NPI producers are=cutting production, selling stocks or attempting to secure loans on the ba=k of stocks in warehouses. Rio Tinto have resolved the their tax dispute with the Mongolian government over therOyu Tolgoi copper mine but financing still needs to be negotiated over pha=e II of the development there. Zambia's Mining and finance min=sters have indicated that they may consider temporarily reverting to the old tax regime or making deals on a mine by m=ne basis as the IMF applaud their efforts to compromise and encouraged the= to implement a transparent system that applies to all mines. Vietna= is expected to increase its aluminia output by 20% to 650kMT/year as its first plant reaches full capacity this=month. Shanghai Aluminum on warrant stocks are flat at 108.= kMT. LME Aluminum on warrant stocks are flat at 1888 kMT Shang=ai Copper on warrant stocks are flat at 86.7 kMT. LME Copper stocks =re up 0.11% to 252 kMT. LME Nickel stocks are up 0.41% to 332 kMT. Copper Vols are down 0.5%, Ali Vols are down 0.25%, =ickel Vols are up 1%, Lead Vols are unch Zinc Vols are unch Upcoming Data 30/3-Chicago PMI-Sury 51.7%, Actual 46.3%, Prior =5.8% 30/3-US Consumer Confidence Index -Sury 96.=, Actual 101.3, Prior 96.4 Regards, 2 EFTA_R1_01374318 EFTA02371552 Prateek Please=access the link for disclaimer: http://globalmarkets.db.com/new/content/3045.html &=bsp; Deutsc=e Bank External Business Conduct Standards can be found at www.DB.com/=oddfrank This communication may contain confidential and/or privileged information. =f you are not the intended recipient (or have received this communication =n error) please notify the sender immediately and destroy this communicati=n. Any unauthorized copying, disclosure or distribution of the material in this communication is strictly forbidde=. Deutsche Bank does not render legal or tax advice, and the information cont=ined in this communication should not be regarded as such. 3 EFTA_R1_01374319 EFTA02371553