EFTA02383476.pdf

From: Daniel Sabba Sent: Tuesday, January 13, 2015 2:51 AM To: Jeffrey Epstein Cc: Vahe Stepanian Subject: Oil and oil vols Classification: Public Trading commentary below.=l think it is noteworthy that with today's 5% sell off in crude, implied v=ls barely rallied. For WTI: WTI (/change) H15 - Mar Futu=e / Feb option expiry 47.30%= +1.20% M15 - Jun Future / May option expiry 42.20% =AO +0.60% Z15 - Dec Future / Nov option expiry =C2 35.60% +0.70% From: Stavros Valavanis Sen=: 01/12/2015 09:23 PM GMT Subject: EOD Commodities No=e - 12 Jan Classification: Public OIL</=:p> Another capitulation in crude today, with both down =ver 5%! After hours, WTI traded blow 46$; tomorrow should be interesting t= see if we selloff below this technical level, as the next technical level=would be 33$ (although perhaps 40$ may be a psychological barrier). There is just no end in sight! GS downgra=ed oil prices which is 1 reason market sold off. Also, a series of refiner= outages in the US are pressuring US crude prices. On the news front, the =IA came out and said that the Big 3 shale plays will grow 90kbd in Feb mom versus January, which is a slowdo=n in the rate but still pretty significant. The window was actually a bit =tronger today as Feb 2-6 forties from -65 to -20, and Jan 26-30 got bid fr=m - 70 to -45. In the US, Genscape showed a midweek build of 290k and a full week build of 1.17M, in line w e=pectations. US products had another strong day, as the refinery issues pus=ed both distillate and gasoline cracks higher. EFTA_R1_01400049 EFTA02383476 OIL VOLS &nbs=; Oil vols bid on the day although not as much as you =ould expect given the fact that we were down 5% in flatprice. We saw inter=st in selling j5-m5 BRE vol (the j5 BRE 53 calls were sold more than 3000x=. Again prompt vols rallied more than back end vols as there was minimal interestin call6 overall. We think=that vols may rally significantly if WTI breaks the 46$ level decisively a= vols have definitely been lagging the past few days compared to what flat=rice has been doing... the h5/z5 wti spread is almost at 12 vols, and the m5/z5 is at 6.6 vols. Perhaps sel=ing the second one is a good RV trade, as you are somewhat protected from =ny prompt vol explosion, and you get a 1 vol carry per month...</=:p> &=bsp; &nbs=; =nbsp; WTI (/change) &=bsp; &nb=p; BRE (/change)=/span> H15 &nbs=; =nbsp; 47.30% +1.20% &nbs=; =4.25% +1.05% M15 &nbs=; =nbsp; 42.20% +0.60% &nbs=; =9.25% +0.65% Z15 &=bsp; &nbs=; 35.60% +0.70% &n=sp; 33.85% +0.35%4=pan> Z16 &nbs=; &=bsp; 29.10% +0.60% = 28.90% +0.50% BASE METALS 3m Ivls = dod=change support &nbs=; resistance Al $1810.5 &=bsp; +$0.5 &nb=p; $1800 &nb=p; $1900 Cu $6017 &nb=p; -$-72.5 =nbsp; $6000 = $6200 Zn $2137.5 &=bsp; -$18.5 =nbsp; $2125 =$2200 Ni $15,122 &=bsp; -$178 &=bsp; $15,000 =15,650 Pb $1862 &nb=p; -$8 = $1830 &nbs=; $1900 The base metals complex took a big hit between 12:30 and 13:0=, testing some key support levels. Falling oil prices have been weig=ing on the base complex along with index re-balancing. India's industrial production numbers provided some positive news around noon but =his was short lived. Stockists have been selling copper and Nickel o= concerns about demand in the US and China, adding to the weakness. =he ECB is considering a hybrid approach to bond purchases, sharing risk across the Euro zone but retaining separate p=rchases by individual central banks. Copper smashed through the $600= supports at around 12:30, hitting lows of $5966 before recovering. = big put have been seen on the copper market, one at $6,000 and one at $5,500 expiring in June, these amount to almost 2=0 kMT and could accelerate the current down trend as the writer sells to h=dge his/her position. Demand concerns in China are increasing as wea=ness 2 EFTA_R1_01400050 EFTA02383477 in the housing market contines to provide serious concerns about demand. Societe Generale put the 2015 su=plus at —380 kMT while Macquarie put it at —98kMT. CitiGroup however=sees prices rising to $7000 by the end of 2015 as mines under perform and =ore copper is imported by China after the lunar new year. Aluminium similarly tested support at $1800 hitt=ng lows of around $1798 before bouncing back. Nickel too saw a big d=op around 13:00. Global Ferronickel Holdings inc, the Phillpine's 3r= largest Nickel producer is set to raise —$600m in Manilla in March. It is expected to be positioning istelf to inve=t in further production if the Indonesian style ore export ban does not cu= off exports to China. Lead and Zinc followed the base complex, with=Lead recovering significantly towards the close. Shanghai Aluminium on warrant stocks are down 2.7% to 44.2 kM=. LME Aluminium on warrant stocks are down 0.67% to 1839.8 kMT. Shanghai C=pper on warrant stocks are up 5% to 33.7 kMT. LME Copper stocks are down 0.26% to 163 kMT. LME Nickel stocks are down 0.63% to 324.= kMT. Copper Vols are unch, Ali Vols are up 0.25%, Nickel Vols are =nch, Lead and Zinc Vols unch Upcoming Data 12/1-India Industrial Production-Sury 2.3=, Actual 3.8%, Prior -4.2% 12/1- China Money supply M2 YoY- Sury 12.5%, Prior 12.3% This communication may contain confid=ntial and/or privileged information. If you are not the intended recipient (or have received this communication<=r> in error) please notify the sender immediately and destroy this communication. Any unauthorized copying, disclosure or distribution of thear> material in this communication is strictly forbidden. Deutsche Bank does not render legal or tax advice, and the information contained in this communication should not be regarded as such. 3 EFTA_R1_01400051 EFTA02383478