HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_012091.jpg
Extracted Text (OCR)
CHART 4: REGIONAL VALUATIONS
P/E RATIO (12M FORWARD)
P/B RATIO
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
RETURN ON COMMON EQUITY
14%
13% cc
11%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Mam MSCI ACWI Mm MSCI KOREA
Hong Kong and China. Despite the recent strong performance,
the market is still inexpensive relative to other regions and
indices. MSCI Korea's price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.1x and
price-to-earnings (P/E) (12 month forward) ratio of 9.4x are
30% and 31% lower than MSCI Asia ex. Japan Index, respectively
as shown in CHART 4.
Three Korean industry groups or sectors currently offer
compelling relative valuations when contrasted against other
geographies. The Korean Automobiles and Components
industry group currently trades at a P/B ratio of 1.0x which
compares favorably to Japan’s P/B ratio of 1.4x. When
comparing the automobile original equipment manufacturers
(OEM), Korean OEMs trade at a P/B ratio near 0.5x book,
which is a steep discount to their Japanese rivals. The Korean
Automobiles and Components industry group appears
undervalued when you also consider the fact that the five-year
average return on equity (ROE) was 14.4% versus 11.8% for the
Japanese group.
Utilities is another sector where the valuation disparity is stark.
Korea's largest electricity producer currently trades at a P/B
ratio of 0.4x despite three stellar years of strong operating
margin and prudent capital discipline. By comparison, the
Mam MSC! ASIA EX. JAPAN
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
DIVIDEND PAYOUT RATIO
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Japanese utility sector currently trades at P/B ratio of 1.0x with
the Tokyo regional electricity producer trading at a P/B ratio of
0.6x despite ¥10 trillion of possible unreserved liabilities
stemming from a 2011 nuclear disaster. Finally, Korean banks
are currently trading at a P/B ratio of 0.8x, which compares
favorably to Japan’s 1.0x and Italy’s 0.9x. It is estimated that the
loan portfolios of the Korean banks have improved in recent
years as evidenced by improving ROE. In the most recent fiscal
year, Korean banks generated ROE of 7.7%, outperforming
Japan's 7.5% and Italy’s 6.7%.
These discrepancies in valuation have just started to close with
the new president and the formation of his cabinet, but Korean
market multiples have the potential to converge closer to global
levels with a successful execution of corporate reform. We are
not advocating that the new government implement heavy-
handed methods to incite change among the chaebols. Instead,
we believe that working with the chaebols in enhancing
governance, minimizing cross holdings, creating board
independence and minority shareholder protection, would be
well received by global investors and mostly rewarding to
chaebol valuations. For a further look at corporate governance
in South Korea, please see the following article by Dr. Mariela
Vargova. ©
GLOBAL FORESIGHT THIRPD QUARTER 2017
HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_012091
Source: Bloomberg
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