EFTA02403975.pdf

From: Daniel Sabba Sent: Wednesday, April 1, 2015 10:35 PM To: Jeffrey Epstein Cc: Vahe Stepanian; Ariane Dwyer Subject: FW: EOD Commodities Note - 1 Apr From: Prateek Jain Sent: Wednesday, April 01, 2015 4:03 PM Subject: EOD Commodities Note - 1 Apr OIL Another day of If IranTalks dragging on without a conc=usion in Lausanne. There was very little news or comments about the status=of the deal, other than white house saying that US is prepared to walk awa= if the talks stall. The talks are likely to drag on another day as there is no hard deadline on the framewor= agreement. Either way, it appears that few of the key points are still re=aining, and in my opinion the talks will end with those issues still unres=lved and postponed for June final agreement talks.. However, the rally in oil today was driven more from=the DOE stats than the fading optimism of an Iran deal. WTI built 4.8m wit= Cushing adding 2.6m, in line with data from API and lower than last week =verall. However, production declined 36kbd (a first decline in 2 months) after being flat the week before, whic= was taken as a signal that finally the production is catching up with the=rig count decline. Gasoline drew 4.3m and implied demand went up by 800kbd=(even as production increased 5m and imports added another 1.5m) which caught the market off guard which wa= expecting a draw of lm. This fuelled a sharp WTI lead rally with prompt W=l spread ending 1.5c stronger and prompt arb up about 50c.. Vols came off sharply today with the rally and a vie= that Iran talks will be a non-event.. &=bsp; &nb=p; =nbsp; WTI (/change) &=bsp; &nb=p; BRE (/change) K15 &nbs=; =nbsp; 49.30% -3.25% =nbsp; 46=50% -4.65% M15 &nbs=; =nbsp; 48.30% -3.00% =nbsp; 45=00% -2.90% Z15 &=bsp; &nbs=; 35.40% -1.70% =nbsp; 34.10%&=bsp; -1.75% EFTA_R1_01443370 EFTA02403975 Z16 &nbs=; &=bsp; 25.50% -0.70% 8t=bsp; 25=30% -1.10% Metals 3m Ivls &nb=p; =nbsp; dod change&nbs=; support &nbs=; &=bsp; resistance Al $1777 &n=sp; = -$8 &nbs=; &=bsp; $1750 &nb=p; =nbsp; $1800 Cu $6035 &n=sp; = -$6 &nbs=; =nbsp; $6000 &nb=p; =nbsp; $6300 Zn $2098.5 =nbsp; &nb=p; +$17.5 &=bsp; $2=00 =nbsp; $2100 Ni $12,680 =nbsp; &nb=p; +$285 &n=sp; &nbs=; $12,000 = $13,000 Pb $1852.5 =nbsp; &nb=p; +$33 &nb=p; = $1800 &n=sp; $1900 The base complex steadied on better than expected Ch=nese and Eurozone PMIs but traded down post option expiry before recoverin= in the afternoon prior to the supportive US PMI. Japan's Sumitomo=Metal has reduced copper output by 16.5kMT due to planned maintenance on one of its smelters. It's Nickel out=ut has risen by 10.6% to 63.8 kMT in 2015 due to higher supply from =ts Philippines' subsidiary but expect to produce 20kMT less ferro-nickel=due to higher ore prices. Nickel imports to China are rising on low prices and the shutdown of domestic NPI plants sug=esting that a price floor is approaching. The COTR this week has sho=n that money managers are generally going long with the biggest switch in =ead. Long open interest in nickel has however dropped this week on a sustained bearish market. Shanghai Aluminum on warrant stocks are flat at 108.= kMT. LME Aluminum on warrant stocks are flat at 1888 kMT Shanghai C=pper on warrant stocks are up 1.6% to 88.3 kMT. LME Copper stocks ar= down 0.53% to 251 kMT. LME Nickel stocks are up 0.67% to 330 kMT. Copper Vols are down 0.5%, Ali Vols are down 0.5%, N=ckel Vols are up 1%, Lead Vols are unch Zinc Vols are unch Upcoming Data 01/4-China Manufacturing PMI-Sury 49.7, Act=al 50.1, Prior 49.9 01/4-mssc China Manufacturing PMI-Sury 49.3= Actual 49.6, Prior 49.2 01/4-Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI-Surv=51.9, Actual 52.2, Prior 51.9 01/4-Markit US Manufacturing PMI-Sury 55.3,=Actual 55.7, Prior 55.3 Regards, 2 EFTA_R1_01443371 EFTA02403976 Prateek Pleas= access the link for disclaimer: =span style="color:#595959">http://globalmarkets.db.com/new/content/3045.=tml Deuts=he Bank External Business Conduct Standards can be found at www.DB.com/doddfrank This communication may contain confidential and/or privileged information. =f you are not the intended recipient (or have received this communication =n error) please notify the sender immediately and destroy this communicati=n. Any unauthorized copying, disclosure or distribution of the material in this communication is strictly forbidde=. Deutsche Bank does not render legal or tax advice, and the information contrived in this communication should not be regarded as such. 3 EFTA_R1_01443372 EFTA02403977