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Brokers Takeaways
In brokers, GS presented, while MS hosted 1-1 meetings with investors. During the
conference we polled the audience on several topics including the outlook for capital
markets revenues.
Investors modestly positive on capital markets over next 1-2 years
Given the election outcome, recent rise in rates, potential for higher growth and de-
regulation, and lower corporate tax rates, we asked investors about their outlook for
capital markets over the next 1-2 years. The majority of investors (78%) were positive
about the capital markets sector, with 56% who expect modest improvement in
regulation, revenue growth of 5-10%, and returns of 10-12% and 22% who think we
could see significant improvement in regulation, revenues growth of 10%+, and returns
12% +.
Chart 5: Based on the backdrop and the election outcome, what is your outlook for the capital
markets over the next 1-2 years
60% 56%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Little tono change in _ Little to no change in Modest improvement in Significant
regulation, flattish regulation, but regulation, revenues improvement in
revenues, andstable improving revenues (5-10%), and returns —_ regulation, revenues
returns (5%) and returns (10-12%) (10%+), and returns
(10%+) with GDP (12%+)
growth
Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research
Asset Manager Takeaways
In asset management, four of the largest public managers, IVZ, EV, LM, and AB either
presented or engaged in fireside chats, while several other firms including AMG, APAM,
BLK, CNS, OMAM, and VRTS hosted 1-1 meetings with investors. During the conference
we polled the audience on several topics including the outlook for DOL (in the panel
section), the outlook for fixed income given the recent rise in rates/expected rate hike
and outlook, active vs passive market share, M&A, and pricing/fee structures.
Fixed income outlook more muted
Given the recent rise in rates, a looming rate hike in December, and the potential for a
higher growth/inflation outlook for the economy, we asked investors their outlook on
fixed income performance and flows vs equities. The majority of investors believe we
will see weaker fixed income performance and flows offset by stronger equity
performance and flows (52%). Weaker fixed income/equity performance and flows was
the second most popular answer at 24% while flat flows and performance came in third
at 16%. Only 8% of the audience think we will see stronger fixed income/equity
performance and flows, while nobody thinks fixed income will be stronger and equity
will be weaker (both flows and performance).
BankofAmerica <2”
4 2016 Future of Financials Conference | 17 November 2016 Merrill Lynch
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