HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_014315.jpg
Extracted Text (OCR)
Unauthorized redistribution of this report is prohibited. This report is intended for amanda.ens@baml.com
2016 Future of Financials Conference
Management and client bullishness implies
further upside
Price Objective Change
Conference tone bullish into 2017
We recently hosted over 90 public and private companies and 700 attendees at our
Future of Financials conference, where investor attendance was up an impressive 66%
YoY. The tone from management and investors was uniformly bullish, with more
generalists attending than we have seen in previous years.
Revenue & regulatory upside + positioning = raising POs
We are raising our price objectives across most of our names. Three primary reasons
why we think there is upside remaining after the recent rally: 1) an improved outlook on
both activity levels and interest rates, driving revenue upside; 2) potentially lower
regulatory burden, particularly as new supervisory leadership can come with the new
administration; and 3) relatively lighter positioning in US financials vs. other sectors.
Full house at innovation-focused panels
New this year, we hosted expert panels on the evolution of clearing, fixed income
market structure, equity market structure, and payments, and how innovation in
blockchain, big data, and robo advisory can change the game. Strong panel attendance
suggested high interest in these themes, and polling feedback suggests shareholders
want banks to make investment spend in innovation a priority -- so long as it is self
funded with savings found elsewhere.
Banks: Most constructive we've heard in years
We are raising our POs for our banks by c11% (see Table 1 page 63). When asked if the
election results changed 2017 outlooks, all banks were more enthusiastic about growth.
Echoing sentiment from our panel on regulation and M&A, banks were upbeat on the
CCAR process potentially evolving post-election. Our top picks out of the conference:
WFC (sentiment over retail sales practices clouding EPS sensitivity to improving macro},
C (solid momentum on revenues and capital return), IBKC (moving closer to strategic
targets), and EWBC (sentiment post-election appears constructive on regulatory relief).
Brokers, Alternatives, and Asset Managers
The sentiment around the capital market sector was mostly favorable post the election
outcome, given the potential for de-regulation, pro-growth, rising rates, lower tax rates,
and increasing activity levels. For the brokers, given mostly favorable 4Q activity trends
(more so for trading vs. banking), 1H17 seasonality with easy comps, and potential for
de-regulation and lower taxes — we like the outlook, particularly for GS. For the asset
managers, despite the move higher post the election on a potential DOL
delay/modification and lower tax rates, most expect the DOL to continue in some form
and the core trends remain challenging — we remain cautious. For the alternative
managers, while we continue to view the structural growth as attractive and a lower
corp tax rate could potentially increase the odds of a transition to a C-corp , given the
potential for a higher carry tax, rising rates, and de-regulation of banks potentially
moderating some of the newer growth areas, we view the outlook as more balanced.
Specialty / Consumer finance
Companies were generally bullish on the US consumer heading into 2017. AXP
presented a fairly upbeat outlook on billings, loan and revenue growth, while cautioning
that Discount rate pressures and FX headwinds could impact near-term results. The
private tech based lenders were cautiously optimistic that hiccups from earlier this year
were behind the sector, while the private payments companies stressed the importance
of partnering with incumbent leaders and the need to maintain safety standards.
BofA Merrill Lynch does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its research reports. As a
result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the
objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making
their investment decision.
Refer to important disclosures on page 78 to 81. Analyst Certification on page 75. Price Objective
Basis/Risk on page 64. 11687665
Timestamp: 17 November 2016 06:24AM EST
Bankof America
Merrill Lynch
Equity | 17 November 2016 Corrected
United States
Banks
US Financials
MLPF&S
Erika Najarian
Research Analyst
MLPF&S
+1 646 855 1584
erika.najarian@baml.com
Michael Carrier, CFA
Research Analyst
MLPF&S
+1 646 855 5004
michael.carrier@baml.com
Ebrahim H. Poonawala
Research Analyst
MLPF&S
+1 646 743 0490
ebrahim.poonawala@baml.com
Kenneth Bruce
Research Analyst
MLPF&S
+1 415 676 3545
kenneth.bruce@baml.com
See Team Page for Full List of Contributors
HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_014315
Extracted Information
Email Addresses
Phone Numbers
Document Details
| Filename | HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_014315.jpg |
| File Size | 0.0 KB |
| OCR Confidence | 85.0% |
| Has Readable Text | Yes |
| Text Length | 4,819 characters |
| Indexed | 2026-02-04T16:22:05.647343 |