EFTA02418104.pdf

To: Jeffrey Epsteinfleeyacation©gmail.com] From: Paul S Barrett Sent: Wed 10/13/2010 1:38:59 PM Subject: Update and ideas Morning Jeffrey A few things: - macro trading environment remains tough with all the central bank intervention and quant easing programs distorting the markets - I think the opportunities will in specific themes or single name ideas #1 - Buy AMR Converts 6.25%2014 (Spot = $6.42; Conversion N = $9.90) - we should buy 2MM of this JPM analyst raised Dec-11 price target to $13.50 from $12.50 a few weeks ago, implying 115% upside. This compares to average coverage upside of 45% (8 names covered). Historically, buying airlines in September-October and holding until April or May yielded positive returns 90% of the time. AMR is highly leveraged yet the analyst believes deleveraging and balance sheet repair will be main industry themes over next year #2 - buy ARS denominated Argentine GDP Warrants (these are warrants issued by the government with the payout linked to nominal GOP growth) - N target ARS22.09 ($5.59); current ARS12.64 ($3.20) - would do $10MM notional which costs $320,000 Will call you shortly to discuss EFTA_R1_01483242 EFTA02418104 Paul Paul Barrett, CFA Managing Director Global Investment Opportunities Group llMorgan Private Bank 40W 57th Street, 33rd Floor, New York, NY 10019 EFTA_R1_01483243 EFTA02418105