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uncertain macro backdrop. That said, following the results of the election, and
assuming the new administration can create fiscal stimulus, management sounded
optimistic around growth prospects in C&! (10% ex-energy YoY), owner-occupied,
etc.
= Energy portfolio performing in-line with expectations. Management reaffirmed
the >8% allowance on its energy portfolio ($2.3mn or 5% of total loans) remains
sufficient to cover future losses. However, continued stress in its oilfield services
portfolio (26% of portfolio) remains the primary reason behind ZION’s cautious
view. This was consistent with the 60% of the audience polled whose ownership in
the stock is modestly influenced by this portfolio. That said, until supply/demand
fundamentals improve or activity picks up, material reserve release is unlikely.
Chart 51: How much does credit quality in ZION’s energy portfolio influence your decision on owning
the stock?
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Still a material factor in my A modest factor in my No longer a factor in my
investment decision investment decision investment decision
Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research
= Steepening yield curve a modest benefit, though short-end matters more.
Despite recent actions that have reduced the bank’s asset sensitivity, ZION remains
the most asset sensitive among US banks. For a 25bp rise in the short-end, ZION
estimates a $30mn incremental benefit to spread income. That said, due to the
variable-rate mismatch between assets/liabilities, a steeper yield curve is expected
to have a marginal impact.
= Potential changes to CCAR viewed as positive for ZION. Mr. Burdiss viewed the
potential change to the annual stress test (CCAR)}, specifically the static RWA
balance, as net positive for the bank/industry. That said, overall these changes are
immaterial as CCAR remains their capital constraint. Although only 14% of the
audience polled think more aggressive capital return is the most important catalyst
for the stock (top response: 29% for stronger revenue growth), investor bias leaned
higher as it relates to total payout.
34 2016 Future of Financials Conference | 17 November 2016 Bankof America 2
Merrill Lynch
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