HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_014383.jpg
Extracted Text (OCR)
downturn in the local real estate markets affecting Franklin's construction loans and
increasing credit costs via higher charge-offs and provisions, and 3) inability to
effectively fund asset growth driving greater than expected compression in the net
interest margin.
Goldman Sachs (GS)
We value the brokers based on the relationship between ROE (return on equity} and PB
(price to book), which has a high historical correlation. Our $230 PO is based on a target
PB multiple of 1.2x our forward book value estimate, which is above our 2017E ROE of
roughly 10% as we add in higher interest rate expectations and loosening regulations
into our multiple.
Risks to the downside are a weaker economy/capital markets, increased macro issues,
tougher regulation, and litigation, while risks to the upside are a stronger economy,
moderating macro risks, market share gains, and less onerous regulatory and legal
issues.
Great Western Bancorp Inc (GWB)
We use a three-factor valuation framework (P/TBV, P/E, DCF) to arrive at our $42 price
objective and assign a 2.0x multiple to our 2Q17E TBV given that we believe the market
would pay premium for GWB's 2016 estimated returns of 15%, in line with the median
premium of its peer group (High performing, Midwest peers, and SMIDs). We place a 16x
multiple on our 2017E EPS, a premium to its peer group given higher quality earnings.
Our DCF assumes a two-stage cost of capital of 10% and a terminal growth rate of 3%.
Downside risks to our price objective are a prolonged downturn in the farm sector and
lower for longer interest rate environment. Upside risks are a better than expected
improvement in the farming industry and a much stronger economic improvement in the
Midwest economy.
Hancock Holding (HBHC)
We use a three-factor valuation framework (P/TBV, P/E, DCF) to arrive at our $41 price
objective. We assign a 1.5x multiple to our 2Q17E TBY, in line with SMID-cap peers
based on their in-line return profile, and this translates to $35.75. We place a 14.5x
multiple on our 2017E EPS, in line with other peers based on forecasted EPS growth, for
$33. Our DCF assumes a two-stage model with terminal growth rate of 3.5% and a cost
of capital of 8.5% to derive our $35 PO.
Downside risks to our price objective are regulatory issues, slowing growth and if M&A
synergies do not materialize. Upside risks are better than expected cost saves, stronger
loan growth that would lead to better than forecast spread revenue and lower credit
costs.
Huntington Bancshares Inc. (HBAN)
We use a three-factor valuation framework (P/E, P/TBV, DCF) to arrive at our PO of $13
and assign a 1.8x multiple to 2017E TBV and a 14x multiple on 2017E EPS, below
historical multiples. This is due to more stringent capital standards and the negative fee
income impact of pending regulatory reform. Our DCF analysis uses a cost of equity of
15.7% in the first stage and 11% in the second stage, and a terminal growth rate of 3%.
Risks to our price objective are an inability to offset regulatory fee income headwinds
and integration risk associated with FMER. Other risks are an inability to return capital
to shareholders in a timely fashion or overpaying for an acquisition target.
IBERIABANK Corp (IBKC)
We use a three-factor valuation framework (P/TBV, P/E, DCF) to arrive at our $85 price
objective and assign a 1.6x multiple to our 2Q17E TBY, in line with multiples of other
Bankof America
Merrill Lynch 2016 Future of Financials Conference | 17 November 2016 69
HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_014383