Back to Results

HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_014383.jpg

Source: HOUSE_OVERSIGHT  •  Size: 0.0 KB  •  OCR Confidence: 85.0%
View Original Image

Extracted Text (OCR)

downturn in the local real estate markets affecting Franklin's construction loans and increasing credit costs via higher charge-offs and provisions, and 3) inability to effectively fund asset growth driving greater than expected compression in the net interest margin. Goldman Sachs (GS) We value the brokers based on the relationship between ROE (return on equity} and PB (price to book), which has a high historical correlation. Our $230 PO is based on a target PB multiple of 1.2x our forward book value estimate, which is above our 2017E ROE of roughly 10% as we add in higher interest rate expectations and loosening regulations into our multiple. Risks to the downside are a weaker economy/capital markets, increased macro issues, tougher regulation, and litigation, while risks to the upside are a stronger economy, moderating macro risks, market share gains, and less onerous regulatory and legal issues. Great Western Bancorp Inc (GWB) We use a three-factor valuation framework (P/TBV, P/E, DCF) to arrive at our $42 price objective and assign a 2.0x multiple to our 2Q17E TBV given that we believe the market would pay premium for GWB's 2016 estimated returns of 15%, in line with the median premium of its peer group (High performing, Midwest peers, and SMIDs). We place a 16x multiple on our 2017E EPS, a premium to its peer group given higher quality earnings. Our DCF assumes a two-stage cost of capital of 10% and a terminal growth rate of 3%. Downside risks to our price objective are a prolonged downturn in the farm sector and lower for longer interest rate environment. Upside risks are a better than expected improvement in the farming industry and a much stronger economic improvement in the Midwest economy. Hancock Holding (HBHC) We use a three-factor valuation framework (P/TBV, P/E, DCF) to arrive at our $41 price objective. We assign a 1.5x multiple to our 2Q17E TBY, in line with SMID-cap peers based on their in-line return profile, and this translates to $35.75. We place a 14.5x multiple on our 2017E EPS, in line with other peers based on forecasted EPS growth, for $33. Our DCF assumes a two-stage model with terminal growth rate of 3.5% and a cost of capital of 8.5% to derive our $35 PO. Downside risks to our price objective are regulatory issues, slowing growth and if M&A synergies do not materialize. Upside risks are better than expected cost saves, stronger loan growth that would lead to better than forecast spread revenue and lower credit costs. Huntington Bancshares Inc. (HBAN) We use a three-factor valuation framework (P/E, P/TBV, DCF) to arrive at our PO of $13 and assign a 1.8x multiple to 2017E TBV and a 14x multiple on 2017E EPS, below historical multiples. This is due to more stringent capital standards and the negative fee income impact of pending regulatory reform. Our DCF analysis uses a cost of equity of 15.7% in the first stage and 11% in the second stage, and a terminal growth rate of 3%. Risks to our price objective are an inability to offset regulatory fee income headwinds and integration risk associated with FMER. Other risks are an inability to return capital to shareholders in a timely fashion or overpaying for an acquisition target. IBERIABANK Corp (IBKC) We use a three-factor valuation framework (P/TBV, P/E, DCF) to arrive at our $85 price objective and assign a 1.6x multiple to our 2Q17E TBY, in line with multiples of other Bankof America Merrill Lynch 2016 Future of Financials Conference | 17 November 2016 69 HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_014383

Document Preview

HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_014383.jpg

Click to view full size

Document Details

Filename HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_014383.jpg
File Size 0.0 KB
OCR Confidence 85.0%
Has Readable Text Yes
Text Length 3,534 characters
Indexed 2026-02-04T16:22:16.434147