HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_014382.jpg
Extracted Text (OCR)
First Bancorp Puerto Rico (FBP)
We use a three-factor valuation framework (P/TBV, P/E, DCF) to arrive at our $6.50 price
objective. We assign a 1.0x multiple to our 2Q17E TBV, below the 1.6X for peers, due to
the overhang of PR fiscal issues that may reduce TBV. Our revised implied 2Q17E TBV
of 1.0x is consistent with a 5% ROE. We assign a 10x multiple to our 2017E EPS, in line
with peers. Our DCF assumes a two-stage cost of capital of 10% and a terminal growth
rate of 3%.
Downside risks to our price objective are a worse-than-expected restructuring of PR
government debt, deterioration in the Puerto Rican economy that could hurt the ongoing
credit and earnings recovery at FBP, a change in management's strategy to dispose
troubled assets, and potential regulatory risk stemming from the ongoing
implementation of the Dodd-Frank financial rules. Upside risks to our price objective are
a much stronger economic improvement in Puerto Rico and a better-than-expected
improvement in asset quality trends at FBP.
First Hawaiian Inc. (FHB)
We use a three-factor valuation framework (P/E, P/TBV, DCF) to arrive at our $31 PO
and assign a 2.2x multiple to 2017E TBV and 17x multiple on 2017E EPS, representing
premium target multiples for the median smid-cap banks under coverage. We have
weighted the P/E and P/TBV factors equally.
A superior profitability profile suggests an above peer multiple. Our DCF assumes a two-
stage cost of capital of 8% and a terminal growth rate of 4%.
Risks include 1) FHB's reliance on the Hawaiian economy with 80% of the franchise
spread across Hawaii, Guam, and Saipan poses downside risk to EPS from a severe
economic downturn in this region. 2) While FHB has a history of conservative
underwriting its exposure to auto loans could serve as an overhang if investor concerns
around the health of the auto sector and consumer increase. 3) Expectations for
continued divestiture by French bank BNP (owns 82% of shares o/s) could temper stock
performance.
First Horizon National Corp. (FHN)
We use a three-prong valuation framework (P/E, P/TBV, DCF) to arrive at our $16 price
objective and assign a 1.5x multiple to 2Q17E TBV and a 14x multiple to 2017E EPS
(inline with median for our mid-to-small cap universe). We believe that this valuation
discount is warranted given the below average earnings growth that we forecast for
FHN. Our P/TBV and P/E targets reflect our expectation that earnings growth and
profitability will remain challenged by a low growth low interest rate environment. Our
DCF assumes a two-stage cost of capital of 10% and a terminal growth rate of 5%.
Downside risks to our price objective are a double dip in home prices and slower
residential real estate recovery. Upside risks are FHN being taken out above our price
objective and better performance in the economy than we expect.
Franklin Financial Network, Inc. (FSB)
We use a three-factor valuation framework (P/TBV, P/E, DCF) to arrive at our $36 price
objective and assign a 1.8x multiple to our 2Q17E TBV, given that we believe the market
would pay no premium for FSB's 2016 estimated returns of 14%, below the median of
its peer group (High performing, Southeast peers, and SMIDs). We place a 14x multiple
on our 2017E EPS, a premium to its peer group given above average expected EPS
growth. Our DCF assumes a two-stage cost of capital of 10% and a terminal growth
rate of 3%.
Downside risks to our price objective are: 1) execution risk leading to slower than
expected loan growth or lower than expected improvement in the efficiency ratio, 2}
BankofAmerica <2”
68 2016 Future of Financials Conference | 17 November 2016 Merrill Lynch
HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_014382