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defensive dividend stocks to take advantage of the improving cyclical backdrop and
rising bond yields. That meant our November screen included a high proportion of
Financials. This somewhat remains the case but we note the addition of several
industrial companies in our latest screen. As a reminder, to qualify the stock must be
SXXP listed stocks with at least €2bn market cap, 4% DY, 1.2x DPS cover, 0% DPS 2YR
CAGR and qualifying stocks must be on a Buy rating from our fundamental analysts. The
yield on the basket is 5% with an average DPS CAGR of 7% and 1.8x covered.
Table 3: European Yield Screen —- December 2016
Sedol BofAML ticker Company name Sector Divi Yield (>4%) DPS 2YCAGR _Div'd Cover
426330 DNBHF DNB ASA Banks 42 23.9 2.0
B545MG XERSF SWISS RE AG Insurance 54 52 2.1
457481 MDIBF MEDIOBANCA SPA Banks 49 80 24
B1LB9P SZCRF SCOR SE Insurance 53 43 9
BZ5739 ING ING GROEP N.V. Banks 53 46 a
538003 NRDEF NORDEA BANK AB Banks 66 2.1 3
BDVZYZ ROYMF ROYAL MAIL PLC Industrial Goods & Services 5.0 42 8
458882 DNSKF DANSKE BANK A/S Banks 44 55 20
596651 SCGLF SOCIETE GENERALE Banks 56 06 2.0
021623 AIVAF AVIVA Insurance 5.1 99 8
B23K0M CTAGF CAPITA PLC Industrial Goods & Services 57 25 2.1
522603 SAXPF SAMPO PLC Insurance 54 46 2
481334 SVKEF SKAND ENSKILDA BKN Banks 58 37 4
B17BBQ NTJF INVESTEC Financial Services 44 10.0 9
528983 EBKOF ERSTE GROUP BK AG Banks 3.6 12.5 3.1
766716 ATASF ATLANTIA SPA Industrial Goods & Services 49 11.2 3
B83VD9 MNGPF MAN GROUP PLC Financial Services 58 15.1 2
B5ZQ9D EVKIF EVONIK INDUSTRIES Chemicals 44 29 a
BO1FLG GFSZF G4S Industrial Goods & Services 3.9 56 6
BGLP8L IMIAF IMI Industrial Goods & Services 40 40 5
Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, Factset. The European Quality Yield Screen identified as a screen above Is intended to be an indicative metric only and may not be used for reference purposes or as a measure of performance for any
financial instrument or contract, or otherwise relied upon by third parties for any other purpose, without the prior written consent of BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research. This screen was not created to act as a benchmark.
Long SX5E 2018 Index dividend futures
With our second dividend related trade, we remain long SX5E 2018 index dividend
futures (DEDZ8), a trade where we continue to see value even with the future price
trading close to the high for the year. The 2018 contract implies a 4% decline in
dividends paid from the 2016 level. In the absence of a recession, we think that is too
pessimistic — 2013 was the last year to see a material 2-year decline in dividends (in the
wake of the sovereign crisis and recession). The 2018 contract also still trades at a
discount to the level implied by our stock analysts’ DPS forecasts. Our derivative
strategists using BofAML forecasts for 2018 estimate 8% upside from current prices.
Although the upside is now more limited the risk around this trade is also much lower
now. The pull to par effect will become the dominant driver over the coming months and
the full year results should provide clarity on where the 2018 contract will settle.
BankofAmerica <2”
18 Global Cross Asset Strategy - Year Ahead | 30 November 2016 Merrill Lynch
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