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Appendix 1: Methodology
This publication is aimed at multi-asset institutional investors who tend to have a longer
term time horizon for their investments. As such, we will be looking to come up with
ideas that will have a minimum six month horizon and ideally longer than a year. The
individual trade ideas will be sourced from our strategists across BofA Merrill Lynch
Global Research.
This publication is not meant to be an agglomeration of all the trade ideas published by
BofAML Global Research strategists, but instead represents those that fit with our
longer term themes (as opposed to shorter term tactical trades). In addition, there may
be several different trade ideas published by BofAML Global Research strategists across
different asset classes that seek to leverage off of the same theme. In most cases we
will seek merely to take the trades that have the best risk adjusted return. By risk
adjusted we mean the risk undertaken in a trade vs the likely return on that trade. In
considering that we will look at the underlying volatility in the individual asset class. This
will be combined with our own view of what the likely downside is in an adverse
scenario vs the payoff in the expected scenario and our own assessment of the
likelihoods of such scenarios.
Once selected it is assumed that the trade would likely be retained for a minimum of six
months (as per the selection rationale). Should any analyst change their view on the trade
and cease to recommend it, then it will be immediately removed from our list’. Equally
should our target be met for a trade and the relevant strategist feels it has run its course
then it will also be removed (see footnote). Otherwise we will review our trades on a
monthly basis in this publication. If we feel a new trade idea has a better risk adjusted
return than an existing one in the same asset class then we would replace it.
The objective of the trades is that they would be suitable for a typical objective of the
multi-asset fund managers, which is typically framed in terms of a Libor+ benchmark
(this can be anything from Libor +300bp to Libor +700bp). That return is also coupled
with a target volatility, for example half MSCI ACWI volatility. The volatility target will,
of course, be a function of the expected return, but there is a general focus on
producing lower volatility returns. Our set of trades should not be regarded as a
portfolio but a collection of ideas to implement in a multi-asset portfolio.
Appendix 2 - Recommended COCO bonds
Table 4: COCO basket
ISIN Bond Issuing entity Price Mid YtM
XS$1055037177 ACAFP 6.5% EUR Perp-21 CREDIT AGRICOLE SA 100.5 54
XS$1002801758 BACR 8% EUR Perp-20 BARCLAYS PLC 100.9 cA
XS1033661866 BBVASM 7% EUR Perp-19 BANCO BILBAO VIZCAYA ARG 91.1 a
XS$1073143932 NYKRE 4% EUR 2036-21 NYKREDIT REALKREDIT AS 102.4 27
XS0972523947 CS 5.75% EUR 2025-20 CREDIT SUISSE 107.6 3.6
DEO00DB/XHP3 DB 6% EUR Perp-22 DEUTSCHE BANK AG 18.3 67
XS$1043545059 | LLOYDS 6.375% EUR Perp-20 | LLOYDS BANKING GROUP PLC 97.5 57
XS$1171914515 | RABOBK 5.5% EUR Perp-20 | COOPERATIEVE RABOBANK UA 98.5 5.5
XS0867620725 | SOCGEN 6.75% EUR Perp-21 SOCIETE GENERALE 98.8 5.9
XS1107890847 | UCGIM 6.75% EUR Perp-21 UNICREDIT SPA 84.5 if
Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research *As of 28/1 1/2016 close
| Under these circumstances, we will publish a note immediately.
Bankof America
Merrill Lynch Global Cross Asset Strategy - Year Ahead | 30 November 2016 23
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