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Extracted Text (OCR)
Exhibit 15: 10-Year Net Survival Rate of Breast and Prostate Cancer Patients
Improved cancer survival rates reflect significant gains in science and technology.
%
100 -
a
So
Nn
a
f=}
Breast Cancer
Data as of November 2014.
84
78
76
| 9 75
60 62
| 48
40
34
| |
1971-1972 1980-1981 1990-1991 2000-2001 2005-2006 2010-2011
1971-1972 1980-1981 1990-1991 2000-2001 2005-2006 2010-2011
Prostate Cancer
Period of Diagnosis
Note: Based on cancer statistics for the UK. Ten-year survival for 2005-2006 and 2010-2011 is predicted using an excess hazard statistical model.
Source: Investment Strategy Group, Cancer Research UK.
We conclude that there is undoubtedly
some degree of mismeasurement. We know that
information and communication technology has
evolved significantly and innovation is occurring
at a rapid pace. We know that the BEA reviews
its statistical methodologies every five years
and revises them as needed, recognizing that
measurement methodologies have to evolve with
the evolution of the US economy. We also know
that we as consumers carry incredibly powerful
digital equipment in the palms of our hands and
pay less for it than we paid for equipment with
lesser functionalities not so long ago. Common
sense supplemented by extensive research by the
experts on productivity and mismeasurement
reinforces our view of a glass half-full when it
comes to innovation and productivity in the US.
We realize this debate will be resolved only
with the benefit of hindsight, in the same way
that realized productivity growth exceeded the
We realize this debate will be resolved
only with the benefit of hindsight, in
the same way that realized productivity
growth exceeded the prognostications
of Hansen in the late 1930s and
Krugman in the early 1990s.
prognostications of Hansen in the late 1930s and
Krugman in the early 1990s. Our clients will be
inundated with conflicting views from headlines
in the media and books with captivating titles.
Separating fact from fiction remains challenging.
Recently, an article in the Wall Street Journal
highlighted “dwindling gains in science, technology
and medicine.”*° The article suggested that
improvements in breast cancer mortality have
slowed since 1985. Exhibit 15 shows the 10-year
net survival rate for breast cancer and prostate
cancer since 1971. Maybe it is only a matter of
perspective, but, to us, a 78% 10-year survival rate
for breast cancer and an 84% 10-year survival
rate for prostate cancer represent significant
improvements over the rates of the early 1980s,
48% and 25%, respectively, and are even more
significant for those whose lives have been saved.
Probably one of the more amusing instances
of conflicting perspectives can be seen in the
2016 publication of two books with
diametrically opposed messages:
Progress: Ten Reasons to Look
Forward to the Future“ and The
Innovation Illusion: How So Little
Is Created by So Many Working So
Hard, both written by authors born
in Sweden in the early 1970s. Our
views, of course, are more aligned
with the first book. The second book,
however, raises important concerns
about excessive regulation and how
Outlook | Investment Strategy Group 17
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