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Extracted Text (OCR)
Exhibit 75: UK Cash Merger and Acquisition
Announcement Pipeline
Continued inbound M&A activity could benefit the pound.
6-Month Rolling Sum, $ bn
150
Capital Into the UK
= Pound Appreciation
100
50 5
Outbound M&A = Pound Depreciation
Net M&A
oes
100 - SOUS |: Out of the UK
150 ~
Dec-16
May-16 — Jun-16 Jul-16 = Aug-16 = Sep-16 Oct-16 — Nov-16
Data through December 31, 2016.
Note: October 2016 outbound M&A adjusted to exclude stock portion of British American
Tobacco’s takeover of Reynolds.
Source: Investment Strategy Group, Bloomberg.
through to higher domestic inflation. In turn,
higher UK interest rates would make sterling-
denominated assets more appealing to foreign
investors and support the currency.
Finally, while sterling certainly has scope to
depreciate, market participants are already well-
positioned for further weakness. Those positions
may become vulnerable if the UK’s negotiations
with its trade partners turn more amicable and the
domestic UK economy remains resilient.
With these upside risks being tempered by the
unknowable evolution of Brexit negotiations for
now, we see balanced risks for the pound this year
and thus remain tactically neutral.
Emerging Market Currencies
Emerging market currencies caught a welcome
updraft last year, following a 45% freefall since
mid-2011. The flight was not without turbulence,
however. Following a 12% rally in the first half of
the year—reflecting a dovish shift in US monetary
policy and waning fears about Chinese capital
outflows—emerging market currencies hit an air
pocket that erased much of these gains following
the surprise outcome of the US elections.
We believe this downdraft is likely to persist.
The prospect of higher US interest rates, a stronger
dollar and China’s bumpy deceleration spells
tighter global financial conditions and a risk
of capital outflows from emerging markets—
conditions that have historically constituted a stiff
headwind to their currencies.
These risks are magnified by the uncertainty
surrounding the incoming US administration’s
trade policies. Fears of protectionism have already
negatively impacted the currencies of China and
Mexico—the two largest sources of manufacturing
exports to the US—with the peso and Chinese
renminbi down 11.6% and 2.3%, respectively,
since the election.
Even so, we do not think a broad tactical short
in emerging market currencies is appealing at this
stage. Despite the small rally last year, emerging
market currencies remain attractively valued (see
Exhibit 76), particularly given their enticing 5%
yield differential to the US dollar. Moreover, the
new US administration may prove to be more
measured in its actions than its rhetoric—a non-
negligible risk that could revive sentiment and
improve prospects for emerging market currencies.
The Mexican peso, in particular, could benefit in
that event.
For now, we remain tactically positioned to
benefit from further renminbi weakness given our
long-standing concerns about China’s economic
vulnerabilities and the likelihood of looser policy,
policy mistakes and capital outflows. The potential
for US trade protectionism directed at China,
though not our base case, would further benefit
this position.
2017 Global Fixed Income Outlook
Last year witnessed a notable reversal of fortune
for global interest rates. Despite reaching all-time
closing lows shortly after the surprise Brexit vote,
10-year yields in developed markets had reclaimed
much—if not all—of those declines by year-end.
In the US, a more than one percentage point swing
was sufficient to turn the 10-year bond’s 9% gain
into a loss.
While some have portrayed this reversal as
just another setback in the now three-decade-old
bond bull market, we are more skeptical. The
policy mix that has depressed interest rates in
the post-crisis period—a combination of fiscal
austerity, negative or near-zero central bank policy
rates and large-scale asset purchases—is losing
favor, as even policymakers acknowledge the often
counterproductive impact of these policies. At
64 | Goldman Sachs | JANUARY 2017
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