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Top 10 US Ideas Quarterly
Q1 Top 10 Ideas
Strategy
Top 10 US Ideas -— 1Q17
The backdrop for risk assets has changed dramatically over the past year. As Michael
Hartnett pointed out, 2016 saw global interest rates fall to 5,000-year lows and the
likely end of what has been the greatest bull market in bonds ever. We experienced a
historic US Presidential election and Republican sweep of Congress on November 9th.
Later that same month, OPEC reached a historic deal to reduce crude production by
1.2mn b/d with non-OPEC producers delivering an additional 600k b/d of cuts — the first
such joint curb since 1998. Risk assets responded with 30-year Treasury reaching a
yield of 2.088% in July, US equity markets reaching all-time highs, and oil prices rallying
more than 40% since the start of the year. Given the Republican sweep - and the
resulting likelihood that the logjam of Washington gridlock will be broken - our Top 10
stock selections are more heavily geared toward companies that may benefit from
increased fiscal stimulus, a more pro-business agenda, and/or tax-policy reform. Our
current strategy stands in stark contrast to our stance last year of looking for defensive
growth ideas.
Eight Buys and two Underperforms
Our 1Q17 list includes eight Buys and two Underperforms across six sectors. Our Buys
are Aetna Inc, Dover Corp, General Dynamics, Hess, MGM Resorts, Norfolk Southern, SVB
Financial, and Texas Instruments. Our Underperforms are Consolidated Edison, and
TripAdvisor.
How the list will be maintained and updated
We will publish this list at the beginning of each quarter. Ideas will generally remain on
the list through the quarter unless coverage is dropped or the recommendation changes.
Any security which is removed will not be replaced. If there are any changes to the list
during the quarter we will publish the change in a research report. Securities are
intended to stay on the list for one quarter, though some may be chosen for the next
quarter’s list. We will publish performance quarterly
Table 1: Top 10 US Ideas List - 1Q17
Company Ticker Analyst Rating Recommendation Price PO Mkt Cap (bn)
Aetna Inc AET _ Fischbeck,Kevin B-1-7 BUY $124.45 $149.00 44 657.00
Dover Corp DOV = Obin,Andrew B-1-7 BUY 75.19 85.00 1,921.00
General Dynamics GD Epstein,Ronald J. B-1-7 BUY $173.21 $200.00 57,215.00
Hess HES — Leggate,Doug B-1-7 BUY 62.90 80.00 9,090.00
MGM Resorts MGM _ Kelley,Shaun C-1-9 BUY 28.50 33.00 1,993.00
Norfolk Southern NSC — Hoexter,Ken B-1-7 BUY $108.82 $122.00 33,393.00
SVB Financial SIVB — Poonawala,Ebrahim B-1-9 BUY $170.38 $190.00 8,584.00
Texas Instr. TXN — Arya,Vivek B-1-7 BUY 74.15 82.00 73,899.00
Consolidated
Edison ED Chin,Brian A3-7 UNDERPERFORM 74.07 59.00 20,526.00
TripAdvisor TRIP — Schindler,Nat C-3-9 UNDERPERFORM 46.95 41.00 9071.00
Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research
BofA Merrill Lynch does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its research reports. As a
result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the
objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making
their investment decision.
Refer to important disclosures on page 27 to 30. Analyst Certification on page 17. Price Objective
Basis/Risk on page 15. 11698831
Timestamp: 03 January 2017 12:05AM EST
Bankof America
Merrill Lynch
Equity | 03 January 2017 Corrected
United States
Alpha Generation Research
MLPF&S
Anthony Cassamassino
Strategist
MLPF&S
+1 212 449 6874
anthony.cassamassino@baml.com
Derek Harris
Strategist
MLPF&S
+1 646 743 0218
derek. harris@baml.com
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