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Deregulation/Gov’t Legislation: There aren’t any clear/obvious changes here that
would impact MGM. As a labor intensive business, changes to overtime rules or the
Affordable Care Act as it relates to company level costs could be modestly beneficial.
Tax Policy: MGM will be a cash tax payer in 2017. Tax policy should be mixed. While
they get some meaningful interest shield from their decent amount of debt, they also
have relatively high capex that could benefit them if expensed as incurred. Import tariffs
should be limited in impact as it’s mostly a domestic, services based business with
limited COGS.
Catalysts: ConAgg should generate RevPAR tailwinds. RevPAR should accelerate in Q1
and could be up double digits in the quarter driven by a strong convention calendar,
headlined by the ConAgg convention which comes only once every 3 years.
MGM also opened its $1.4B National Harbor casino outside of Washington on December
8". The first data points here on revenues will come in early January.
MGM’s Cotai casino in Macau opens in 2Q17 and is a new $3B property. We believe
expectations are reasonably low and revenues are still strong in Macau (+ double digits
in 4Q). Despite recent softness, Macau peers still trade at premiums to core MGM
Latest report:
MGM Resorts International: Notes from the road: MGM National Harbor -
the new standard for regionals
1Q risks: Macau sentiment has been fading recently as the RMB continues to
depreciate and investors seek new growth opportunities domestically given the large
cyclical rotations occurring in other sectors.
Company Description: MGM, is a global hotel and casino gaming company, owns and
operates 19 properties located in NV, MD, MS, MI, IL and Macau. It owns a 50% stake in
its CityCenter joint venture on the Las Vegas Strip and a 77% interest in MGM Growth
Properties, a publicly traded gaming focused real estate investment trust (REIT).
Norfolk Southern (NSC)
Ken Hoexter +1 646 855 1498
Research Analyst, MLPF&S
Buy, PO $122
1Q investment thesis
Norfolk Southern is benefiting from a volume inflection, with 9 consecutive weeks of
carload growth year-over-year, after nearly 2 years of sustained negative carload
declines. Aside from the ongoing inflection in data, the company should benefit in 2017
from its own structural efficiency program and many potential macro shifts currently
under President-elect Trump’s Administration. The new management team (Jim Squires
was named CEO in 2015) is working to change the culture and business processes, and
has delivered for a few quarters. It set operating targets for the first time in company
history, targeting $650 million in efficiency gains (+25% to 2015 EPS) and a 65%
operating ratio by 2020. It also set $250 million in efficiency gains and a sub-70%
operating ratio in 2016, allowing it to immediate progress. In January, management has
noted it will further detail its efficiency gain targets, which could be a near-term
catalyst for the shares. Under Trump’s proposal’s, NS could benefit from a lower tax
BankofAmerica <2”
10 Top 10 US Ideas Quarterly | 03 January 2017 Merrill Lynch
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Phone Numbers
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| Filename | HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_014631.jpg |
| File Size | 0.0 KB |
| OCR Confidence | 85.0% |
| Has Readable Text | Yes |
| Text Length | 3,152 characters |
| Indexed | 2026-02-04T16:23:12.046191 |