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Notes Jeremy J. Siegel, Stocks for the Long Run: The Definitive Guide to Financial Market Returns and Long-Term Investment Strategies, McGraw-Hill, 1994. Lisa Beilfuss, “As Dow Nears 20000, Stock-Market Believer Jeremy Siegel Gets a ‘Told You So’ Moment,” Wail Street Journal, December 10, 2016. Throughout the text, “post- WWII cycles” refers to expansions beginning in G2 1954. We exclude two prior expansions, beginning in Q4 1945 and Q4 1949, to ensure consistent data across all variables used to analyze the duration and strength of recoveries (same data series are only available since 1950) as well as to avoid contaminating summary statistics given idiosyncratic economic policies that followed the end of WWII (such as the sharp reduction in military spending or the GI Bill). Gur takeaway from the analysis would not change if 1945 and 1949 were included for the series for which data is available. Edward Luce, “Goodbye to Barack Obama’s World,” Financial Times, November 27, 2016. John H. Cochrane, “Ending America’s Slow-Growth Tailspin,” Wall Street Journal, ay 2, 2016. artin Wolf, “New President as an Economic In-Tray Full Problems,” Financial Times, avember 8, 2016. ichael Heath, “Summers Urges U.S. ta Spend 1% of GDP Annually on Infrastructure,” Bloomberg, October 18, 2016. Robert J. Gordon, The Rise and Fail of American Growth: The US. Standard of Living Since the Civil War, Princeton University Press, 2016. arc Levinson, An Extraordinary Time: The End of the Postwar Boom and the Return of the Ordinary Economy, Basic Books, 2016 Martin Jacques, When China Rules the World: The End of the Western World and the Birth of a New Global Order, Penguin Press, 2009. N. Gregory Mankiw, “One Economic Sickness, Five Diagnoses,” New York Times, June 17, 2016. (Sas 20. 22. 23. 24. Carmen M. Reinhart and enneth S. Rogoff, This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, Princeton University Press, 2011. Alvin H. Hansen, “Capital Goods and the Restoration of Purchasing Power,” Academy of Political Science, 1934. Alvin H. Hansen, “Economic Progress and Declining Population Growth,” American Economic Review, 1939. Lawrence H. Summers, “Remarks,” speech delivered at he Fourteenth Jacques Polak nternational Monetary Fund Annual Research Conference, Washington, D.C., November 8, 2013. Jay Shambaugh, “How Should We Think About This Recovery?” Macroeconomic Advisers’ 26th Annual Policy Seminar, Washington, D.C., September 14, 2016. ichael E. Porter, Jan W. Rivkin, Mihir A. Desai and anjari Raman, “Problems Unsolved and a Nation Divided,” Harvard Business School, September 2016. Council of Economic Advisers, “The Long-Term Decline in Prime-Age Male Labor Force Participation,” June 2016. bid. Etienne Gagnon, Benjamin . Johannsen and David Lopez-Salido, “Understanding he New Normal: The Role of Demographics,” Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, October 3, 2016. itra Toossi, “A Century of ange: The U.S. Labor Force, 950-2050," Monthly Labor Review, Bureau of Labor Statistics, May 2002. Donald J. Trump, “Remarks,” speech delivered at the New York Economic Club, September 15, 2016. Chair Janet L. Yellen, “Current Conditions and the Outlook or the U.S. Economy,” June 6, 2016. Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer, “Remarks on the U.S. Economy,” August 21, 2016. Robert J. Gordon, The Hise and Fail of American Growth: The US. Standard of Living Since the Civil War, Princeton University Press, 2016. oe oe 25. 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. 32. 33. 34. 35. 36. 3]. 38. Stephanie H. McCulla, Alyssa E. Holdren and Shelly Smith, “Improved Estimates of the National Income and Product Accounts: Results of the 2013 Comprehensive Revision,” Bureau of Economic Analysis, September 2013. Paul Krugman, fhe Age of Diminished Expectations: U.S. Economic Policy in the 1990s, IT Press, 1990. Lee Branstetter and Daniel Sichel, “Seven Reasons to Be Optimistic About Productivity,” orthcoming. bid. Olivier Blanchard, “The State of Advanced Economies and Related Policy Debates: A Fall 2016 Assessment,” Peterson nstitute for International Economics, September 2016. artin Feldstein, “Remarks,” speech delivered at the Brookings Institution Conference on Productivity, Washington, D.C., September 8, 2016. Jan Hatzius, “Productivity Paradox v2.0 Revisited,” Goldman Sachs Global nvestment Research, September 2, 2016. David M. Byrne, Stephen D. Qliner and Daniel E. Sichel, “How Fast Are Semiconductor Prices Falling?” Federal Reserve Board, March 2015. Hal Varian, “A Microeconomist Looks at Productivity: A View rom the Valley,” September 2016. bid. Hal Varian, “Notes on Productivity and Intangibles,” ovember 2016. Chad Syverson, “Challenges to ismeasurement Explanations or the U.S. Productivity Slowdown,” University of Chicago Booth School of Business, June 2016. David M. Byrne, John G. Fernald and Marshall B. Reinsdorf, “Does the United States Have a Productivity Slowdown or a Measurement Problem?” Brookings nstitution, March 1, 2016. David Byrne and Carol Corrado, “ICT Prices and ICT Services: What Do They Tell Us About Productivity and Technology?” Conference Board, July 2016. HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_014614 3g: 43. 44. 45. 46. 4]. 48. 49. 50. 52. David Byrne, Wendy Dunn and Eugenio Pinto, “Prices and Depreciation in the Market for Tablet Computers,” Federal Reserve Board, December 2016. Greg Ip, “The Economy's Hidden Problem: We're Out of Big deas,” Wail Street Journal, December 5, 2016. Johan Norberg, Progress: Ten Reasons to Look Forward te the Future, Oneworld Publications, 2016. Fredrik Erixon and Bjorn Weigel, The Innovation illusion: How So Little is Created by So Many Working So Hard, Yale University Press, 2016. . Gregory Mankiw, “One Economic Sickness, Five Diagnoses,” New York Times, June 17, 2016. Alan S. Blinder and Mark W. Watson, “Presidents and the U.S. Economy: An Econometric Exploration,” Princeton University, July 2014. Jay Shambaugh, “How Should We Think About This Recovery?” Macroeconomic Advisers’ 26th Annual Policy Seminar, Washington, D.C., September 14, 2016. Lawrence H. Summers, “When he Best Umps Blow a Call,” ashington Fost, July 14, 2016. artin Neil Baily and Nicholas ontalbano, “Why Is US Productivity Growth So Slow? Possible Explanations and Policy Responses,” Brookings nstitution, September 1, 2016. evin Daly, “Arrested Development: EMs Are Still Converging, but Productivity Growth Is Lower Everywhere,” Goldman Sachs Global nvestment Research, December 20, 2016. ally E. Reynolds and Philip A. Wallach, “The Fiscal Fights of he Obama Administration: An nteractive Timeline,” Brookings nstitution, December 8, 2016. As measured by the Goldman Sachs Financial Conditions ndex. “Default Monitor,” JP Morgan, December 1, 2016. nvestment Strategy Group, Outlook: The Last Innings, January 2016.