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53: 54. 55. 56. Bi These forecasts have been generated by ISG for informational purposes as of the date of this publication. Total return targets are based on |SG’s framework, which incorporates historical valuation, fundamental and technical analysis. Dividend yield assumptions are based on each index’s trailing 12-month dividend yield. They are based on proprietary models and there can be no assurance that the forecasts will be achieved. Please see additional disclosures at the end of this publication. The following indices were used for each asset class: Barclays Municipal -10Y Blend (Muni 1-10}; BAML US T-Bills 0-3M Index (Cash); JPM Government Bond Index Emerging Markets Global Diversified (Emerging Market Local Debt}; HFRI Fund of Funds Composite (Hedge Funds); SCI EM US$ Index (Emerging arket Equity); Barclays US Corporate High Yield (US High Yield); Barclays US High Yield Loans (Bank Loans); MSCI UK Local Index (UK Equities); MSCI EAFE Local Index (EAFE Equity); S&P Banks Select Industry ndex (US Banks); TOPIX Index Japan Equity}; Barclays High Yield Municipal Bond Index Muni High Yield). LIBOR, the London Interban Offered Rate, is calculated as he average of leading banks’ estimates of the interest rates hat they would be charged were they to borrow from other banks. It is one of the primary benchmarks for global shart- erm interest rates. Spain is the only Eurozone country in which all banks clear all of the following capital urdles: (1) CET1 ratio >100 bps above each bank's hurdle rate 5.5% + GSIB buffer, where applicable}; (2) 4% leverage ratio in the ECB stress test base case scenario; and (3) 2% leverage ratio in the ECB stress test adverse scenario. Jernej Omahen, “Stress Test: Worst Fears Avoided; Capital Divergence Widens,” Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, July 31, 2016. Gideon Rachman, “Marine Le Pen Looms Over a Trumpian World,” Financial Times, avember 21, 2016. Charles Lichfield, “Fillon Presidency Now More Likely Than a Juppé One,” Eurasia Group, November 21, 2016. 58. 52: 60. 62. 63. 64. 65. 66. 67. 68. 69. 70. Charles Lichfield, “Attack Demonstrates Merkel’s Vulnerability in 2017," Eurasia Group, December 20, 2016. Alastair Gale and Kwanwoa Jun, “North Korea Says It Successfully Conducted Hydrogen-Bomb Test,” Wail Street Journal, January 6, 2016. wanwoo Jun, “North Korea Launches Missile Fram Submarine,” Wall Street Journal, April 24, 2016. Alastair Gale and Gordon Lubold, “North Korea Missile Launch Partends Growing Capabilities,” Wall Street Journal, June 22, 2016. Alastair Gale and Carol E. Lee, “North Korea Conducts Fifth uclear Test,” Wail Street Journal, September 9, 2016. ike Mullen, Sam Nunn and Adam Mount, “A Sharper Choice on North Korea: Engaging China for a Stable artheast Asia,” Council on Foreign Relations, Independent Task Force Report No. 74, September 2016. David Gordon (adjunct senior ellow at the Center for a ew American Security), in aconference call with the nvestment Strategy Group, December 15, 2016. Gerald F. Seib, Jay Salamon and Carol E. Lee, “Barack Obama Warns Donald Trump on North orea Threat,” Wall Street Journal, November 22, 2016. Andrew E. Kramer, “As New Ukraine Talks Begin, What s the State of Europe's Only Active War?” New York Times, October 19, 2016. Warsaw Summit Communiqué, issued by the heads of state and government participating inthe meeting of the North Atlantic Council in Warsaw, July 8-9, 2016. Thomas Gibbons-Neff, “2,900 Explosions in a Day. Heavy Artillery and Tank Fire Returns to the Front Lines in Ukraine.” Washington Fost, December 20, 2016. Warsaw Summit Communiqué, issued by the heads of state and government participating inthe meeting of the North Atlantic Council in Warsaw, July 8-9, 2016. “Transcript: Donald Trump on NATO, Turkey’s Coup Attempt and the World,” New York Times, July 21, 2016. 72. 13s 74. fs). 76. 77. 728. 79. 80. 82. 83. Ben Hubbard and David E. Sanger, “Russia, Iran and Turkey Meet for Syria Talks, Excluding US," New York Times, December 20, 2016. John Davison and Stephanie Nebehay, “Syrian Peace Talks Limp on to Next Week wi Opposition Absent,” Reuters, April 22, 2016. Anne Barnard, “Death To War in Syria Now 470,000, Group Finds,” New York Times, February 11, 2016. Jessica Hartogs, “Syria War Could Cost Country $1.37 by 2020: Study,” CNBC, March 8, 2016. Zalmay Khalilzad, “America eeds a Bipartisan Foreign Policy. Donald Trump Can Make tHappen,” National Interest, December 21, 2016 Geoff Dyer, “Trump’s CIA ominee Mike Pompeo Promises to Roll Back Iran Deal,” Financial Times, ovember 18, 2016. General (Ret.) James N. attis, speech delivered at a conference at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, “The Middle East at an Inflection Point with Gen. attis,” April 22, 2016. bid. Carol E. Lee and Jay Solomon, “Obama Seeks to Fortify Iran uclear Deal,” Wail Street Journal, November 20, 2016. ristina Peterson, “House Passes 9/11 Bill That Would Let Victims’ Families Sue Saudi Arabia,” Wall Street Journal, September 9, 2016. elissa Eddy and Alison Smale, “Berlin Crash ls Suspected to Bea Terror Attack, Police Say,” New York Times, December 19, 2016. Tom Burgis, Arthur Beesley and Anne-Sylvaine Chassany, “ISIS Claims Responsibility for Attack in Nice,” Financial Times, July 17, 2016. Pervaiz Shallwani and Devlin Barrett, “How Police Tracked Down Bombing Suspect Ahmad Khan Rahami,” Wall Street Journal, September 20, 2016. From HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_014615 84. 85. 86. 87. 88. 89. 90. 92. 333 94. 5), 96. Ben S. Bernanke, “How Do Peaple Really Feel About he Economy?” Brookings nstitution, June 30, 2016. Joint Statement, Department of Homeland Security and Office of the Director of National ntelligence on Election Security, October 7, 2016. Courtney Weaver, Sam Fleming and Kathrin Hille, “US Expels Russian Spies over Election Hacking,” Financial Times, December 29, 2016. Vindu Koel and Nicole Perlroth, “Yahoo Says 1 Billion User Accounts Were Hacked,” New York Times, December 14, 2016. Laura Sanders, “IRS Says Cyberattacks on Taxpayer Accounts More Extensive Than Previously Reported,” Wall Street Journal, February 26, 2016. Dustin Volz and Jason Lange, “Exclusive: FBI Probes FDIC Hack Linked to China’s Military — Sources,” Reuters, December 23, 2016. Daniel Victor, “LinkedIn Says Hackers Are Trying to Sell Fruits of Huge 2012 Data Breach,” New York Times, May 18, 2016. Jamil Anderlini, “Beijing Clamps Down on Forex Deals to Stem Capital Flight,” Financial Times, September 9, 2015. Frank Tang, “China’s Foreign Reserves Fall Again in ovember Even as Beijing Tightens Screws on Capital Qutflows,” South China Morning Post, December 7, 2016. Wendy Wu, “What China Has Done to Stop Massive Amounts of Cash from Fleeing the Country,” South China Morning Fost, December 9, 2016. arcus Noland, Gary Clyde Hufbauer, Sherman Robinson and Tyler Moran, “Assessing Trade Agendas in the US Presidential Campaign,” Peterson Institute for nternational Economics, September 2016. Robert D. Blackwill, Henry issinger and Ashley J. Tellis, “Revising U.S. Grand Strategy Toward China,” Council on Foreign Relations Press, April 2015. David Brunnstrom, “China nstalls Weapons Systems on Artificial Islands,” Reuters, December 15, 2016.