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Norfolk Southern (NSC)
Our $122 price objective is based on a 19.5x multiple on our 2017 EPS estimate of
$6.25. We move above the top of its one-standard deviation historical trading range of
12x-16x given the new management team's move to improve margins, cut costs, and
raise its ROIC, and as EPS inflects off a volume deflated 19% decline in 2015.
Risks to our price objective and estimates are the company's ability to derive continued
operational benefits, a return to significant pricing competition among the rails, slower
than expected economic growth, a deterioration to improving service metrics, a heavily
unionized employee base, inability to exercise pricing power due to regulatory changes
or legal challenges from customers, external factors (such as weather) impacting
operations, and the STB installing mandatory reciprocal switching (or open access) to
the rail network without proper pricing.
SVB Financial Group (SIVB)
We use a three-factor valuation framework (P/TBV, P/E, DCF) to arrive at our $190 price
objective and assign a 2.3x multiple to our 2017e TBV and apply a 21x P/E to 17E EPS.
Our valuation multiples are both in line with high growth peers due to SIVB's high
profitability and EPS growth profile. Our DCF assumes a two-stage cost of capital of
9.5% and a terminal growth rate of 6%.
Downside risks are a longer than expected low rate environment and a slowdown in the
technology sector and related IPO activity. Upside risks are sooner than expected rate
hike, or better than expected pickup in the tech sector.
Texas Instruments Inc. (TXN)
Our $82 PO on TXN is based on14x FY17E EV/EBITDA, in line with high quality
diversified and analog peers trading at 14x-15x, given TXN's high quality business model
and strong FCF generation.
Risks to our price objective: 1} Lumpy telco capex, especially in wireless deployments, 2)
Volatile market share as design cycle times are very long, 3) Increased R&D spending
pressure to maintain an edge versus the competition, 4) Inventory cycles and potential
double ordering by customers that can often create mismatches between real supply
and demand, 5) Exposure to several mature markets such as PC and other consumer
electronics could limit its growth rate.
TripAdvisor (TRIP)
Our price objective of $41 is based on 21x our 2018 non-GAAP EPS estimate. This
multiple represents a premium to online travel/vertical media comps and in our view
adequately compensates TripAdvisor for improving margins and growth off a trough
point in FY16 into FY17 when the negative impacts of its IB transition peak.
Downside risks to our price objective are: 1) increasing competition (e.g. Yelp), 2} macro-
economic factors (e.g. recession in Europe) impacting the travel industry, 3) challenges
to the credibility of online reviews, 4) Instant Book transition puts pressure on revenue
growth, and 5) mobile monetization headwinds.
Upside risks to our price objective are: 1) improved mobile monetization 2} major OTA
sign on for instant booking 3) high non-hotel shopper dollar capture and 4) improved
global macro environment.
Analyst Certification
We, Derek Harris, Andrew Obin, Brian Chin, Doug Leggate, Ebrahim H. Poonawala, Ken
Hoexter, Kevin Fischbeck, CFA, Nat Schindler, Ronald J. Epstein, Shaun C. Kelley and
Vivek Arya, hereby certify that the views each of us has expressed in this research report
Bankof America <>
Merrill Lynch Top 10 US Ideas Quarterly | 03 January 2017. 17
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