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e Snoek and with Liza deep previously likely moves recoverable resource closer
to the upper end of this range 2bn boe before Liza #4 and Pacuma, providing
line of sight for at least a 4 FPSO development starting in 2019.
« After Liza 4, the Stena Carron drillship will move back to Payara to drill an
appraisal well which will also test a deeper prospect ‘Pacuma tail’. Where pre-
drill prospect size is scaled at about 1bn boe. The next prospect (Turbot) will
then be spud south east of Payara. Note is that if Payara 2 is successful, this
would likely add another ‘boat’ with capacity of 150,000 boepd.
The graphics below characterize Hess view of Payara and Snoek. We assume the 1bn
boe Pacuma prospect is the light green area below Payara.
Exhibit 7: Initial characterization of Payara Exhibit 8: Updated characterization suggests a similar footprint to Liza
Liza Water Depth: 5,500-6,000 ft
Drilling TD: 18,000-18,800 ft
( Liza Water Depth: 5,500-5,700 ft
/ Drilling TD: 18,000-18,800 ft
Future
Prospect
Guyana
a | GoM Green Canyon for scale
Source: Hess Source: Hess
Again quoting ExxonMobil management:
Just as we progressed rapidly at Liza, we'll move quickly to develop Payara if the
delineation well is successful.’
Recall that Hess management has suggested Payara will ‘definitely be commercial’.
However at this early stage we assume no value for Payara in our assessed value of
Hess’ not least as any attempt at precision is obviously premature. But with discussions
with management suggesting scenarios through appraisal where Payara is a lookalike to
Liza, we believe a ‘plus three year’ development scheme is a reasonable basis to frame
option value in a success case.
Under our $70 Brent base case, the theoretical NPV would be around $10/sh. This is on
top of the approximate $12-14/ share value we estimate is reasonable for Hess from
the existing Liza discovery. Note we continue to assume about 400,000 bpd gross
development scenario-reviewed again below to reflect the latest project proposal
submitted to the Guyana Government which now targets first production in 2H19.
Note we assume negligible value for natural gas revenue in this latest iteration, thus the
range of $12-$14 for Liza mentioned above and $22-524 for Liza / Payara. The table
below assumes gas valued at $1 / mmcfe.
‘ Bankot America
6 Hess Corp. | 11 April 2017 Merrill Lynch
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