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Internet/e-Commerce
1Q Internet Sector Preview
Earnings Preview
1Q Preview; Expectations building on a strong 2H
Our early sector preview highlights our estimates vs. Street, early 1Q data points, and
some opportunities for 1Q results for 30 stocks in our coverage group (more detailed
company previews to follow). For large-caps, Street 2017 EPS estimates are down 8%
YTD while the average stock price is up 9% YTD; suggesting macro and 2H optimism is
driving stocks, which could continue throughout earnings season. 1Q was not without
potential pressures, including ramping competition in several sectors and delayed tax
refunds. A key theme for the group, in our view, is advertising & listing ranking revenue
initiatives at eCommerce sites (AMZN, EBAY, EXPE), and we are constructive on all three
stocks. Per our Internet sentiment ranking screen (page 7), FB, WIX, TREE have best
sentiment while TWTR and TRIP have weakest.
A few early checks positive, mixed eCommerce data
Our early ad checks suggest robust overall demand, aided by somewhat easy comps vs
1Q’16, with Instagram momentum a standout. eCommerce is more mixed, with some
concerns on consumer spending due to delayed tax refunds, but optimism that spending
will rebound in March/April. In travel, there are modest concerns on pressure on US
inbound travel, a bigger negative for Expedia than Priceline. FX spot rates for both the
Euro and the Pound have depreciated 1% vs. the USS since end of Jan.
Many key upcoming events for stocks in 2Q
Top events in 2Q include Facebook’s F8 developer conference on April 18-19, Google’s
Marketing Next keynote on 5/23, an AWS event in San Francisco on April 18-19,
expected closing Verizon’s acquisition of Yahoo, Netflix’s release of several key
franchise including House of Cards, Orange is the New Black, Sense&, Glow, and
Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt, consumer wide release of Pandora Premium, Expedia’s
new HomeAway disclosures and, possibly, Amazon’s new revenue disclosures.
We expect meet/beat EPS for several companies
We are above the Street on 2017 EPS for 16 of the 25 stocks discussed within and, of those,
we are most confident in Facebook & Priceline for 1Q upside potential. We expect Facebook
to benefit from robust traffic, Instagram momentum, and greater adoption of audience
targeting tools. We also think Priceline can beat 1Q given strong booking trends into the
quarter and a modest recovery in European travel. We are below the Street on 2017 EPS for
AMZN, TRIP, and YHOO. Expedia is a top eComm/travel idea for 2Q/3Q on potential for
accelerating room nights, HomeAway optimism, and less uncertainty on near-term estimates.
GOOG, AMZN & ZG interesting 1Q sentiment stocks
For large cap’s, we believe GOOGL has had high recent interest given controversy
around Youtube ad placements. We are not sure if Google will provide clarity on the
issue on their call, but we do expect advertisers to return by 3Q and any overhang to be
resolved. For Amazon, the company had new revenue disclosures in its 10-K filing, and
there is growing optimism on advertising being a positive bottom-line driver. In SMID
Internet, Zillow has more controversy going into 1Q as investors are once more
concerned about potential regulation by the CFPB limiting the ability of agents and
mortgage brokers to co-market on the platform. We remain positive on the stock due to
its dominant position in online real estate and our belief that the high RO! of the ad unit
(our survey suggested >6x return) will ensure that agents buy Zillow placements
regardless of mortgage broker incentives. Additionally, we see earnings upside potential.
BofA Merrill Lynch does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its research reports. As a
result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the
objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making
their investment decision.
Refer to important disclosures on page 62 to 64. Analyst Certification on page 59. Price Objective
Basis/Risk on page 53. 11729935
Timestamp: 06 April 2017 04:12AM EDT
Bankof America
Merrill Lynch
Equity | 06 April 2017
Americas
Internet/e-Commerce
Justin Post
Research Analyst
MLPF&S
+1 415 676 3547
justin.post@baml.com
Nat Schindler
Research Analyst
MLPF&S
+1 415 676 3574
nathaniel.schindler@baml.com
Ryan Goodman, CFA
Research Analyst
MLPF&S
+1 415 676 3560
ryan.c.goodman@baml.com
Jason Mitchell
Research Analyst
MLPF&S
+1 415 676 3534
jason.s.mitchell@baml.com
Akshay Bhatia
Research Analyst
MLPF&S
+1 415 676 3548
akshay.bhatia@baml.com
HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_014887
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