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¢ StubHub trends as StubHub GMV comps are tough in 1H’17 (32% y/y growth in
1H’16).
- Marketing expenses are expected to increase, putting pressure on margins and
could raise concerns that GMV growth is being “bought”.
Early 1Q traffic data points mixed
comScore’s eBay desktop unique visitors decreased 6% on average through February vs.
down 2% in 4Q. comScore’s total eBay mobile and PC minutes declined 20% y/y on
average through February in 1Q vs. down 17% y/y in 4Q. comScore indicates mobile
minutes decreased 38% vs. down 20% in 4Q.
Estimates vs. Consensus: Expect modest EPS upside
We expect eBay to report broadly in-line revenue/EPS estimates of $2.21bn/$0.49 vs.
the Street at $2.21bn/S0.48 (guidance is $2.17bn-$2.21bn and $0.46-S0.48). Our model
assumes 11mn shares repurchased in 1Q (about $350mn of repurchase activity). We
have adjusted our GAAP EPS for higher amortization of deferred tax asset.
Table 12: eBay Earnings Summary
1Q17 2017 2017 2018
Revenue
BofAML est. $2,210 $2,340 $9,458 $10,062
Growth Y/Y% 3% 5% 5% 6%
Street $2,206 $2,315 $9,398 $9,925
BofAML vs. Street Above Above Above Above
EBITDA
BofAML est. $855 $843 $3,520 $3,735
Street $841 $827 $3,494 $3,726
BofAML vs. Street Above Above Above Above
EPS
BofAML est. $0.49 $0.48 $2.03 $2.22
Street $0.48 $0.47 $2.01 $2.21
BofAML vs. Street Above Above Above Above
Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research estimates, Bloomberg, as of 4/4/2017
Our $38 price objective is based on 17x our 2018E non-GAAP EPS. O ur 17x P/E
multiple is slightly ahead of the retail comp group average of about 16x, reflecting
eBay's potential for a Marketplace growth acceleration (to well above average retail
growth) in 2017. With 6-8% growth and an 8% FCF yield, we think eBay remains an
interesting value stock for retail investors, although GARP focused Internet investors
may prefer stronger growth at Google or Priceline.
; : BankofAmerica <2”
18 Internet/e-Commerce | 06 April 2017 Merrill Lynch
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