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(FX-neutral). The STR data reflects a continued gradual deceleration in US RevPAR growth and a more recovery in European RevPAR growth as the region laps terrorist attacks and geopolitical uncertainty. Table 13: US and European RevPAR Y/Y Change Mar- US Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 17* 1016 2016 3016 4Q16 1017 Occupancy 0.3% — -0.8% 04% 22% 05% 03% -10% -04% 16% -03% 25% -0.1% 05% -05% 1.6% | -05% 07% 0.1% 07% 05% ADR 2.8% 3.6% 3.2% 28% 24% 35% 3.6% 25% 39% 19% 34% 24% 32% 17% 26% | 3.2% 29% 33% 26% 25% RevPAR 24% 2.8% 2.7% 5.0% 19% 3.8% 25% 21% 56% 16% 59% 23% 38% 12% 42% | 27% 36% 34% 33% 3.0% Europe Occupancy 14% 15% 0.3% 35% 0.3% -0.7% -04% -15% 08% 04% 42% 45% 51% 2.9% 11% 0.8% -04% 28% 4.0% ADR 43% -27% 25% 3.2% 0.3% -45% -0.7% -48% -18% 86% 53% 5.0% -2.1% -3.1% 15% -0.3% -24% 63% -2.6% RevPAR -2.9% — -13% 2.8% 6.8% 0.1% — 5.1% —-1.1% 6.2% —-1.0% — 9.0% = -1.3% 0.7% 29% -3.1% 0.5% 05% 28% -37% 0.1% Europe in Euros Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Juli6 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 Occupancy 14% 15% 0.3% 3.5% 0.3% -0.7% -04% -15% 0.8% 04% 42% 45% 51% 2.9% 11% 0.8% -04% 28% 4.0% ADR 0.0% 0.2% -1.7% -0.1% 0.9% -44% -2.7% -46% -1.6% 85% 54% -1.5% 0.9% 0.2% 07% -1.8% 3.0% 52% 04% RevPAR 14% 1.2% -14% = 3.3% © -1.2% = 5.0% = --3.1% ~=— 6.0% += 0.9% 8.9% = -14% = 2.9%) 4.2% = 3.0% 0.4% —-1.0% -3.3% -24% 3.6% Source: Smith Travel Research (STR), BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research estimates; Note: **March data is month to date Estimates vs. Consensus: In-line 1Q revenue and EPS We expect 1Q revenue/EPS of $2.13bn/S0.07 vs. the Street at $2.14bn/$0.06 driven by 8% core OTA growth, 48% Trivago growth (in USD), 2% Egencia growth, and 16% HomeAway growth. We expect room night growth to remain stable at 16% in 1Q’17 before accelerating on easier comps in 2Q/3Q. Expedia guided 2017 EBITDA growth to 10-15% and our 2017 EBITDA forecast of $1.86bn (15% y/y growth) is modestly above the Street at $1.83bn (14% y/y growth). Table 14: Expedia Estimate Summary 1Q17 2Q17 2017 2018 2019 Revenue BofAML est. $2,134 $2,555 $10,097 $11,424 $12,931 Growth Y/Y% 12% 16% 15% 13% 13% Street $2,140 $2,507 $10,010 $11,266 $12,429 BofAML est. vs. Street Below Above Above Above Above EBITDA BofAML est. $182 $379 $1,857 $2,141 $2,416 Street $179 $367 $1,835 $2,212 $2,628 BofAML est. vs. Street Above Above Above Below Below EPS BofAML est. $0.07 $0.99 $5.54 $6.84 $7.71 Street $0.06 $0.94 $5.38 $6.88 $8.55 BofAML est. vs. Street Above Above Above Below Below Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research estimates, Bloomberg, as of 4/4/2017 Our $146 price objective is based on our sum of the parts (SOP) that assumes 9x 2018E EBITDA for the core OTA business (a discount to Priceline at approx. 15x due to slower organic growth and higher taxes on earnings), 8x 2018E EBITDA for Egencia (we expect single digit growth), 60% ownership of Trivago (using our PO}, and 15x 2018 EV/EBITDA for HomeAway, plus net cash and long term investments. 20 Internet/e-Commerce | 06 April 2017 Bankof America Merrill Lynch HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_014906

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Filename HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_014906.jpg
File Size 0.0 KB
OCR Confidence 85.0%
Has Readable Text Yes
Text Length 3,182 characters
Indexed 2026-02-04T16:24:06.067876