HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_014924.jpg
Extracted Text (OCR)
¢ — Instant Book impact: The Instant Book transition could impact meta rates and total
monetization as more hotel shoppers flow through large OTA partners.
¢ Hotel Shopper growth: Given elevated marketing spend, we expect to see a rebound
in hotel shopper and hotel revenue growth. 4Q16 hotel shopper growth accelerated
from 3% in 2Q-3Q16 to 8%. We expect hotel shopper growth to decelerate slightly
to 6% in 1Q17 on a 200bps tougher y/y comp.
1Q traffic data points: comScore indicates solid mobile and PC user growth
In the US, comScore reported quarter to date through February, average monthly unique
visitors of 31mn on PC and 56mn on mobile, up 24% and up 3% y/y, respectively.
TripAdvisor total minutes in 1Q through February is up 10%, with mobile minutes up 5%
and PC minutes up 17%. In our view, TripAdvisor’s elevated marketing spend YTD likely
targets higher monetizing PC traffic.
Estimates vs. Consensus: Broadly in-line on Revenue, below on EBITDA/EPS
Our 1Q revenue estimate of $379mn is broadly in line with the Street at $377mn. We
are more cautious on EBITDA and EPS at $71mn/S0.23 vs. the Street at $76mn/S0.27.
Table 25: TripAdvisor estimate summary
1Q17 2017 2017 2018 2019
Revenue
BofAML est. $379 $432 $1,647 $1,794 $1,936
Growth Y/Y% 8% 10% 11% 9% 8%
Street $377 $433 $1,649 $1,852 $2,095
BofAML vs. Street Above Below Below Below Below
EBITDA
BofAML est. $71 $88 $346 $403 $471
Street $76 $88 $339 $392 $530
BofAML vs. Street Below Above Above Above Below
EPS
BofAML est. $0.23 $0.31 $1.22 $1.57 $1.89
Street $0.27 $0.32 $1.23 $1.48 $2.28
BofAML vs. Street Below Below Below Above Below
Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, Bloomberg, as of 4/4/2017
Our price objective of $40 is based on 25x our 2018 non-GAAP EPS estimate. This
multiple represents a modest premium to the group for possibly depressed margins and
potential for re-accelerating top-line growth.
38 _Internet/e-Commerce | 06 April 2017 Bankof America <2
Merrill Lynch
HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_014924
Extracted Information
Dates
Document Details
| Filename | HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_014924.jpg |
| File Size | 0.0 KB |
| OCR Confidence | 85.0% |
| Has Readable Text | Yes |
| Text Length | 2,000 characters |
| Indexed | 2026-02-04T16:24:08.474017 |