HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_014930.jpg
Extracted Text (OCR)
Top 1Q data points
comScore mobile data indicated US monthly active users were up 2% y/y and down 4%
q/q (down 3mn q/q)}, versus our estimate for +4% y/y, +1% q/q. Total minutes for 1Q17
(2-mo. data) are tracking down 18% y/y, with mobile down 18% and desktop down 23%.
Mobile minutes have averaged a 20% y/y decline for the last 4 months.
Estimates vs Consensus
Our 1Q17 rev/EPS estimates for $535mn/S0.03 are slightly above the Street and above
the implied midpoint of management’s guidance (based on EBITDA and EBITDA margin
outlook}. Despite our near-term concerns, we believe the outlook was sufficiently
conservative. That said, we see risk to current consensus estimates for the year, and we
are below Street revenue at $2.3bn for 2017 vs consensus at $2.35bn, though slightly
ahead on EBITDA on more moderate cost assumptions. Our 2017 estimates assume a
conservative 4% MAU growth for the year.
Table 29: Twitter Estimate Summary
1Q17 2017 2017 2018
Revenue
BofA ML est. $535 $544 $2,301 $2,339
Growth Y/Y% -10% -10% -9% 2%
Street $510 $548 $2,352 $2,496
BofA ML vs Street Above Below Below Below
EBITDA
BofA ML est. $120 $152 $639 $689
Street $94 $135 $564 $650
BofA ML vs Street Above Above Above Above
EPS
BofA ML est. $0.03 $0.08 $0.33 $0.34
Street $0.01 $0.06 $0.27 $0.37
BofA ML vs Street Above Above Above Below
Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, Bloomberg, as of 4/4/2017
Our $14.50 price objective is based on 12x our 2018 EBITDA estimate, which reflects a
discount to the online media group (13x). We believe the Twitter platform has slowing
user and revenue growth and as such, we expect the stock to trade at a sustained
discount to online media peers, with potential M&A adding some offsetting downside
support.
44 Internet/e-Commerce | 06 April 2017 Bankof America <2
Merrill Lynch
HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_014930
Extracted Information
Dates
Document Details
| Filename | HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_014930.jpg |
| File Size | 0.0 KB |
| OCR Confidence | 85.0% |
| Has Readable Text | Yes |
| Text Length | 1,848 characters |
| Indexed | 2026-02-04T16:24:08.892423 |