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Table 32: Zillow estimate summary
1Q17 2017 2017 2018
Revenue
BofAML est. $239 $261 $1,062 $1,307
Growth Y/Y% 25% 23%
Street $236 $257 $1,048 $1,258
BofAML vs. Street Above Above Above Above
EBITDA
BofAML est. $40 $51 $215 $313
Street $39 S46 $211 $298
BofAML vs. Street Above Above Above Above
EPS
BofAML est. $0.06 $0.11 $0.48 $0.89
Street $0.05 $0.07 $0.44 $0.80
BofAML vs. Street Above Above Above Above
Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research estimates
Zillow has effectively captured the online U.S. real estate market, allowing them to
accelerate monetization and access to a large TAM with $87bn in total real estate
commissions paid in 2016 and Zillow powering just 5% of the commissions through its
Premier Agent platform. Although there is potential for the mortgage business to
create a headwind if the CFPB issued a negative ruling against Zillow, we still like the
stock into the quarter, as we prefer business with minimal competition, and believe that
the high ROI of the real estate premium platform to real estate agents will ensure
agents buy placements on Zillow regardless of mortgage broker involvement. We
maintain our $42 PO based on a 6x our 2018E EV/Sales and supported by our DCF
valuation. Our multiple is roughly in-line for online real estate lead generation sites in
other countries operating in developed countries.
Bankof America 2 Internet/e-Commerce | 06 April2017 49
Merrill Lynch
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